There’s no one way to win a championship.
Having a quarterback helps. The Washington Redskins solved that problem this offseason, following up the abrupt conclusion of the Kirk Cousins era with a trade for veteran signal caller Alex Smith.
As established as Smith is, he can’t win alone. As much as it helps to have stability and competence at quarterback, a large determining factor behind those two qualities is the supporting cast around the quarterback. Aside from a select few who consistently elevate their teams, quarterbacks are, more or less, a reflection of the pieces around them. Every quarterback will struggle, relative to their typical production rate, if their weapons lack reliability and availability.
There are other factors that also go into a quarterback’s play. Proper coaching and scheming plays a large role, but this can be categorized into the “supporting cast” file. In the broadest sense, a quarterback’s supporting cast can be defined as all the weapons and all the resources that a given quarterback has at his disposal.
With this in mind, a question arises around Alex Smith’s arrival in D.C. Is his supporting cast in Washington, in its entirety, better than his supporting cast in Kansas City was in 2017? To some degree, this question won’t be adequately answered until well beyond the start of the 2018 season. But for now, we can compare the two rosters on paper, and draw tentative conclusions. Smith had a career year with his supporting cast in 2017. Will he see similar success in 2018?
Running Back
Until proven otherwise, Kareem Hunt has the edge on Derrius Guice. That’s not a slight to Guice. Guice deserves all the hype he’s getting as the Washington Redskins’ next lead back. Guice has the perfect combination of quickness and physicality as a running back. His angry mentality will only help him get an early jump against NFL competition, and his traits suggest that he can excel as a pass catcher as well.
In a head to head against Kareem Hunt, however, Guice’s traits don’t matter, because Hunt has a year on the rookie out of LSU, and a productive year at that. Hunt was the NFL’s leading rusher in his first year, and his positive impact on Alex Smith’s game was easily noticeable. In weeks in which Hunt had over 100 total yards from scrimmage (11 games), Smith’s touchdown-to-interception ratio was 22 to 1. In weeks in which Hunt accrued less than 100 yards from scrimmage (five games), Smith’s ratio was 4 to 5.
Smith benefits when he’s part of a well-rounded offensive attack, and when Hunt, his go-to multipurpose threat, was on, Smith was utterly unstoppable. Having that kind of weapon at one’s disposal makes it harder for defenses to account for every single threat on the offense. Guice has the potential to have that kind of impact in his rookie year, and he can arguably be more productive on the ground than Hunt was.
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Nevertheless, Hunt, on an individual basis, edges out Guice as the more effective cast member, but when evaluating the position as a whole, Chris Thompson gives the Washington Redskins an easy advantage over the Kansas City Chiefs. Last season, Kareem Hunt was the Chiefs’ running back stable, after the injury sustained by Spencer Ware. Players such as Tyreek Hill and Akeem Hunt occasionally picked up the load, but Hunt was *the* guy. He didn’t have much help in that rotation.
In Washington, Alex Smith has not one, but two quality, explosive threats at running back. Derrius Guice, mentioned above, has all the traits to be successful early, in the same sense as Hunt was in 2017, and Chris Thompson is not only the perfect compliment to Guice’s style, but also the perfect receiving back for Alex Smith. Smith should feel comfortable taking deep shots in the Washington Redskins offense, as we’ll discuss later, but he also loves the middle of the field, and that’s where Chris Thompson can use his innate quickness to gain separation and enter open space.
Chris Thompson in open space is essentially a death knell for opposing defenses. Assuming that Thompson returns to full health with the time allotted to him this offseason, the Washington Redskins will not only be able to sub in and out the two backs, keeping them fresh and at full speed, but Jay Gruden can also get creative with the talent he has, and put both backs on the field, scheming around a combination of talent that he hasn’t had in his entire tenure with the Redskins.
Smith was lucky to have Kareem Hunt in Kansas City last year, but he’s clearly in an even better situation in Washington. Derrius Guice is shaping up to have a similar impact as Hunt; He’s just as, if not more talented. And Chris Thompson is a type of weapon that Smith has never had. And he fits Smith’s game perfectly.
Edge: Washington Redskins
Wide Receiver
Yes, Alex Smith had Tyreek Hill in Kansas City last year. Hill flourished in his first season as the Kansas City Chiefs No. 1 receiver, and Alex Smith has Hill, among others, to thank for his breakout season. Hill was an electric deep threat for Smith, possessing the blazing speed to leave defenders in the lurch.
Having a talent like Hill is an invaluable asset to any offense, but the Kansas City Chiefs didn’t have much in their receiving core, aside from Hill. Chris Conley was slotted in as the No. 2 receiver beside Hill before he was lost for the season due to an injury. Even before the injury, Conley was an underwhelming No. 2 option. He’s a solid depth receiver as it stands, with great upside, but he hasn’t yet polished his game, and he’s battled inconsistency throughout his career.
Based on that description, Conley sounds much like Josh Doctson. Both are stellar athletes with room to grow as NFL receivers. Doctson, still, is a bit more polished, and while Conley has always had a pinpoint accurate quarterback in Alex Smith, Kirk Cousins let some throws get away from him last year, and Josh Doctson looked bad as a result.
There were some throws that Doctson should have hauled in (Ironically, his dropped touchdown against Smith’s Chiefs comes to mind), but the NFL is a game of inches. Quarterbacks always have tight zones that they need to hit to connect with receivers. Smith is better than Kirk Cousins at hitting those zones. While Cousins is accurate, but inconsistent in the game of inches, Smith is automatic. Josh Doctson should benefit from that, comfortably furthering the gap between he and Conley.
Doctson is gaining confidence, and he could be due for a breakout year. But what about Smith’s deep threat? There’s no rule that quarterbacks are limited to having one deep threat. And in Washington’s offense, that freedom rings true. Jamison Crowder has the quickness in the slot to get open between the safeties, and Josh Doctson, as noted above, should continue to wow with catches such as the ones he had against Oakland and Seattle.
However, if the Washington Redskins want to use a player like the Chiefs used Hill last year, then free agent acquisition Paul Richardson is their best bet. Coming off a career year, Richardson is an ascending player with blazing speed, similar to Hill. He used this speed to cement his status as a big play threat in Seattle, so much so that he was famous for making long grabs. Richardson will need to stay on the field, but he’s currently healthy, and he offers quite a bit to the Washington Redskins’ offense.
Richardson might not be as slippery as Tyreek Hill, but he’s no pushover, either. Richardson is an incredibly precise route runner, and he has a perfect blend of top-end speed and disorienting quickness. Richardson can break out of a cut and burst away at full speed. It’s this skill that helps him gain separation, and if everything goes right, he and Josh Doctson should be a very serviceable receiving duo. Neither player has proven that they can consistently string together productive seasons, but their traits bode well for them, and Smith is already working on his downfield chemistry with the two.
In 2018, Smith’s receiving core, had he stayed in Kansas City, would be better than the Washington Redskins’ group. Sammy Watkins completes the puzzle and nudges Chris Conley to the third spot, a spot that suits him better. But based on what Smith had last year, the Washington Redskins have a better unit. Tyreek Hill is hard to replace, but behind him, the Chiefs lacked game-breaking talent. Alfred Wilson was a reliable target in the slot, but Jamison Crowder is better than Wilson in that regard, and while Josh Doctson is a less proven No. 1, Paul Richardson helps compensate for that uncertainty. The Chiefs’ group might have the big name of the batch, but the Washington Redskins are deeper at the position than Smith’s team was last year.
Edge: Washington Redskins
Tight End
The Washington Redskins have a good chance at beating out the Kansas City Chiefs in this area as well. It will all come down to Jordan Reed’s health. In the last two seasons, the former third-round pick has missed fourteen games, including ten last year. It’s been years since Reed has entered a campaign fully healthy, and early in offseason workouts, he is still recuperating from the injury that ended his 2017 season.
Much like what the Washington Redskins have in Jordan Reed, the Kansas City Chiefs have an elite tight end in Travis Kelce. Kelce is the only tight end in the NFL to have recorded back-to-back 1,000-yard receiving campaigns in 2016 and 2017. In 2017, behind the arm of Alex Smith, Kelce reached a career high in receiving touchdowns with eight, solidifying his status as one of the league’s most dominant tight ends.
Kelce and Reed are both superb talents. While Reed makes his money with his quickness and athleticism, gaining separation over the middle and using his elusiveness to gain yards after the catch, Kelce gets by with his solid hands, his durability, and his ability to break through contact and make the most out of every catch.
When healthy, Reed could give Kelce a run for his money. But that’s the problem. Reed hasn’t shown he can stay healthy, and in the NFL, where availability is the most valuable ability for any player, Kelce trumps Reed.
Luckily for the Washington Redskins, they have a stable insurance policy for Jordan Reed, who goes by the name of Vernon Davis. Davis is still playing at a high level as he enters his twelfth year in the NFL, and although he turned 34 years old earlier this year, Davis is playing at a level similar to how he was performing in San Francisco, when Alex Smith was his quarterback so many years ago.
Despite Davis’ recent prowess, he is old, and it’s hard to rely on him as a No. 1 option. The Washington Redskins need Jordan Reed to be healthy for their tight end core to be complete. Jeremy Sprinkle has the potential to take a leap, but he won’t come anywhere near even Davis’ line of production in a reasonable prediction.
Jordan Reed isn’t back on the field yet, and until he gets back, and stays back, it’s hard to commit to a deeper unit led by him over an All-Pro player in Travis Kelce. Kelce didn’t have any proven options behind him last year; Demetrius Harris was solid at times, but inconsistent. Nevertheless, Kelce, on his own, is more valuable than a tight end core with a 34-year old Davis as the spot starter while Jordan Reed heals. That’s not a slight to Davis. Both tight end groups are strong, and Alex Smith shouldn’t have any trouble in Washington. But if Jordan Reed can’t make himself available, then that will limit Smith, to some extent. It’s that constraint that gives Kansas City the edge.
Edge: Kansas City Chiefs
Head Coach
Dare I menton Jay Gruden in the same sentence as Andy Reid, the coach who went to the NFC Championship four times with the Philadelphia Eagles and consistently keeps the Chiefs in the AFC playoff conversation? Jay Gruden? The guy with a 28-35-1 record?
Yes. I dare.
Gruden’s case is a sad one. There are plenty Washington Redskins fans who recognize him as a coach who’s faced stacked odds his entire career in D.C. But there are others who see his record, and nothing else. It is the scapegoat syndrome at its finest.
Hidden behind Gruden’s record, which is a product of both the instability he inherited and the talent deficiencies that he’s dealt with his entire time here, is the fact that Gruden is truly one of the most underrated head coaches in the NFL.
Don’t take that statement out of context. I’m not saying Gruden should be share a pedestal with Bill Belichick. But Gruden doesn’t get nearly enough credit for what he’s done with the Washington Redskins. Gruden brought stability to a franchise that was seemingly allergic to it. He helped mold Kirk Cousins into a solid NFL starter, and he created a scheme that perfectly fit around Cousins’ strengths and weaknesses. With a good roster, Gruden can go far.
As a level head, as a motivator, and, most notably, as a play designer and offensive mind, Jay Gruden is secretly one of the better coaches in the league. I encourage you to browse through Twitter moments and clips by Mark Bullock. Bullock often delves into the details of Gruden’s concepts, and after going over Gruden’s plays in action, it’s clear that he knows how to beat defenses.
Gruden is the mastermind behind the Washington Redskins’ offense, but with Kevin O’Connell providing a bit of a west coast flare, the two should find it easy to create a scheme that is tailored to Alex Smith’s strengths: His mobility, and his accuracy.
Gruden has the ability to create dynamic route concepts that get receivers open in space, and keep defenses one or two steps behind. Meanwhile, Andy Reid’s teams commonly stall. His Chiefs did just that through Weeks 8 to 12 of last season, and Reid was forced to relinquish his offensive play calling duties to Matt Nagy.
Like Nagy, Gruden is an adept play designer. He can improve on his play calling in the red zone and in short yardage situations, but his bad moments, which are fewer in number, garner unjust scrutiny, when compared to his skill as a play designer. With a quarterback who is more accurate than Cousins, and with a quarterback that is more willing to throw it deep than Cousins, Jay Gruden should have a lot of fun in 2018.
On a somewhat unrelated note, Smith’s personality also seems to be a better match with Jay Gruden than Cousins was. Smith and Gruden are both laid back leaders who find it easy to attract the respect of players and personnel around them. It’s important that co-workers get along, and in the NFL, where chemistry matters, both on the field and on the sidelines, this could be a marriage that isn’t getting enough attention. Smith is the perfect leader for this Redskins squad, and the perfect quarterback to work with Gruden. Big things could be in store. Gruden doesn’t have the edge on Reid yet. But his pairing with Smith should not be overlooked.
Edge: Draw
Verdict
It’s not outrageous to say that Alex Smith’s supporting cast in Washington this year is better than his cast in Kansas City was last year. In fact, it could very well prove to be true. While Smith had more big names with the Chiefs last year, his offense in Washington has far more depth and versatility, and he’ll play under one of the more creative offensive minds in the NFL.
Also notable is the fact that Smith enters an offense that is relatively young. For the second year in a row, he has a rookie as his starting running back. Most of his wide receivers are 25 years old or younger, and one, Josh Doctson, is a former first-round pick waiting to break out.
At tight end, if Jordan Reed can stay healthy, Smith has one of the best duos in the NFL at his disposal. And in Chris Thompson, Smith has a type of electric scat back that he hasn’t had in his career before. It’s exciting to think of how he might use his new weapons.
With the Washington Redskins, Alex Smith joins an offense waiting to burst onto the scene as one of the NFL’s better units. Smith’s arrival might finally allow Jay Gruden to open his playbook, and with Derrius Guice and Paul Richardson in the fold, the potential for this starting cast is tantalizing.
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Nevertheless, it all starts with Alex Smith, and how he uses the pieces around him. If last year is any indication, he shouldn’t have any trouble.