The offseason has always been a safe haven for heightened expectations, but should the Washington Redskins’ 2018 expectations be tempered?
Granted, there is plenty of reason to be excited this season. If the Washington Redskins can reach their full potential, they can be a dangerous team. Their defense is as talented as its ever been under Jay Gruden’s watch, and the offense has a plethora of young pieces on the rise.
Based on what Gruden has done with almost nothing over four years, it’s easy to draw conclusions about what 2018 might bring. In the right situation, this team can succeed. But it’s dangerous to assume that after so many years of bad luck, everything will go right.
Eventually, pieces will fall in the right places for the Washington Redskins. But there’s no guarantee that this will happen in 2018. Expectations are mounting, nonetheless. We know how the Washington Redskins can succeed. Where might they fall short?
No. 5 – A Very Strong NFC
The most obvious obstacle standing between the Washington Redskins and a playoff berth in the NFC is the rest of the NFC.
For starters, the Washington Redskins rest in one of the NFL’s most unpredictable divisions. The Philadelphia Eagles are expected to be at the top once again with a stacked roster all around, and the New York Giants, just two years removed from an 11-5 season, made very intriguing offseason improvements. Both the Giants and Cowboys have their holes, but both are teams with enough pieces to be competitive in 2018.
Outside of their home division, the Washington Redskins play a series against the NFC South, arguably one of the strongest divisions in the league. They host the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons, while facing the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road. All four of those teams have lots of talent. The Saints and Falcons are returning playoff teams, and the Panthers are a team of a similar caliber. If the Washington Redskins don’t progress as expected, they might not be able to consistently compete.
In addition to this schedule lineup, the Washington Redskins also play the Arizona Cardinals and the Green Bay Packers. By extension, the Washington Redskins will face off against Aaron Rodgers, a quarterback whom teams often have difficulties against. The Washington Redskins also have an early bye week once again, so the season-ending stretch will be a grueling one.
In short, the NFC is a very tough conference, and no matter how good the Washington Redskins may be, it won’t be easy to forge through the field in 2018. If a culmination of factors work against the Washington Redskins, as they did last year, then they may not meet expectations.
No. 4 – Injuries (Again)
It seems like, in 2018, it would be impossible to get hit by injuries as hard as the Washington Redskins did last year. It’s a miracle that Jay Gruden won even seven games.
It makes sense that the Washington Redskins have displayed a renewed commitment toward keeping their players healthy. But already, a player has been lost to a season-ending injury, and it isn’t July yet.
That’s not to say that the trend will continue. But injuries are a matter of luck more than anything, and over the course of a full season, a team’s luck varies. The Washington Redskins could end up being untouched by injuries in 2018, but given the randomness of injury luck, such a uniform conclusion seems unlikely.
The Washington Redskins’ recent injury history is concerning. Even now, they are more banged up than most teams in the league. If they don’t enter the season at one hundred percent, there’s a chance that those injuries could flare up again. Every year, the chance is the only thing that matters. With better depth, the Washington Redskins are more apt to withstand said injuries. But they would not be without cost.
No. 3 – Pass Catchers
If there is truly a glaring question mark on the Washington Redskins’ roster, it isn’t the left guard position. Shawn Lauvao is a familiar face, and he should be able to perform as a viable stopgap. It isn’t the cornerback position, either. The Washington Redskins are relying on potential there, but Quinton Dunbar played very well last year, and Fabian Moreau should be able to develop under Torrian Gray’s watch.
The biggest question mark on the Washington Redskins’ roster lies in its pass catching group. You won’t find me acknowledging the weaknesses of this group often, because in truth, this unit has the potential to be one of the better groups in the league. Josh Doctson is a former first-round talent. Paul Richardson is a speed receiver with solid contested catch ability. Jamison Crowder is a miracle worker in the slot, and Trey Quinn and Robert Davis are very solid depth pieces who could take on more opportunities.
That said, the potential of this unit does not come without risk. While Doctson has immense upside, he also has yet to be consistent. He dropped a fair bit of passes last season, and this year, he needs to step up. Richardson needs to prove he can stay healthy for consecutive seasons. Jordan Reed needs to get healthy. Vernon Davis needs to fight off age for another year.
Make no mistake: This supporting cast is decent, and if all the pieces can stay healthy, it is at least as good as what Alex Smith had to work with last year. But right now, we’re banking so much on what has to happen for everything to go right. How often does that end up being the case?
No. 2 – Aging Stars
It’s hard to predict when a player’s respective career arc might enter its resolution. Some positional shelf-lives are longer than others, but individual careers are harder to predict.
At 34 years old, Alex Smith is the Washington Redskins’ oldest player, along with Vernon Davis. The Washington Redskins are a relatively young team. That said, there are a number of players on the roster who are lingering dangerously close to the traditional cliff of their respective positions.
Ryan Kerrigan and Trent Williams are going to turn 30 years old later this year, and Josh Norman, the team’s No. 1 cornerback, turned 30 late last year. These three players, among others, are consistent contributors who are all edging toward the twilight of their careers. They might not start to regress this year, but as players continue to wear down, they become more susceptible to injury. We already saw such a thing with Williams last year. A clean bill of health comes with every offseason. But maintaining that good health, in its entirety, might be too much to ask for.
The Washington Redskins’ roster is relatively young, but a sizable portion of the core is built up of veteran players. Were the fate of the season to be entrusted into the hands of the young players alone, success would not be as attainable. It’s a small factor. But it could add up.
No. 1 – Alex Smith
If we’re going off of last year alone, Alex Smith is a top ten NFL quarterback, and he’s walking into an offense that is just as well-equipped as the supporting cast he had with Kansas City last year. With a jumble of weapons at his disposal up the middle of the field, and with a newfound willingness to throw the ball deep, Smith should fit well with the Washington Redskins.
If everything goes right.
Despite Smith’s MVP-level performance last season, his body of work speaks for itself. Smith, for much of his career, has been a slightly above-average quarterback. He doesn’t lose games, he’s safe with the football, and he regularly shows an ability to make plays on his feet. But Smith hasn’t often been the game changer he needs to be in important situations. His 1-4 playoff record with the Chiefs at least alludes to this truth.
There is also this truth to consider, however: That the most recent body of work is the most accurate. There’s no reason to believe anything different for Smith, but ignoring the body of work is unwise. Jay Gruden is known to push his quarterbacks to get the most out of plays, but after years of conservative tendencies from Smith, is it safe to simply expect him to pick up where he left off from last year?
Perhaps in the offseason. But just as Smith might fit perfectly in Gruden’s offense, he might also not live up to expectations, and he might not be the game changer that some are expecting at the quarterback position. He won’t be bad, by any means. But for a team relying more on potential than proven ability, Smith might not be the one to get them over the hump.
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The Washington Redskins have the potential to be a playoff team in 2018, but now, before disappointment has a chance to set in, it’s not a bad idea to address what might hold the Washington Redskins back. As is often the case, the things that can help them rise are the same things that can initiate their downfall.