Redskins vs Giants and Beating the Book


Oct 4, 2015; Landover, MD, USA; Washington Redskins running back Alfred Morris (46) takes the field before the game between the Washington Redskins and the Philadelphia Eagles at FedEx Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

The Washington Redskins control their own destiny with six games remaining in the season. If they can win over the Giants today, the Redskins will be in a first place tie with New York but hold the tiebreaker edge due to a better division record. In fact, with two games remaining versus the floundering Cowboys and one against the equally inept Eagles, the Redskins could have a huge scheduling edge over the Giants with a win.

The Redskins are 4-1 at home with their only loss coming in the opener versus Miami. In addition, Kirk Cousins has looked much better at home than on the road. Cousins has 10 touchdowns and two interceptions at home but only five touchdowns on the road with eight interceptions.

The Giants beat the Redskins in week three in New York 32-21. The game was a comedy of errors for Washington as they had a blocked punt for a safety and three turnovers including Matt Jones fumbling as he hurdled a defender entering the end zone, costing the Redskins a touchdown. It was the first of five losses for the Redskins on the road.

New York will be playing without two starters on their offensive line (same as Washington) and tight end Larry Donnell, who caught three touchdowns versus the Redskins last season. Their defense has had problems also and gave up 52 points to the Saints in a loss four weeks ago. Despite their troubles, the Giants have beaten the Redskins five straight games and always seem to right their ship in those games.

The Redskins have enough firepower to score on the Giants as they did two weeks ago versus the Saints when they scored 47 points. The real question is, will Washington’s defense rise to the occasion against Eli Manning and put forth a similar performance to what they did versus the Saints when they held them to 14 points. If they can eliminate the mistakes they committed in the first meeting with the Giants this season, they can come out with the win.

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The point spread currently has the Giants favored by 2.5 points. If the spread goes to three points with a normal percentage going to the house, I would take the Redskins + the 3 points. If the spread is less than 3 points, I would much rather bet the Redskins to win on the money line and get +120 or +125 on the bet rather than the normal -110 you get with a spread bet.

A +120 bet would mean that you win 20% more than you bet if the Redskins win so a $100 bet would pay out $120. Take the Redskins either +3 versus the spread or on the money line if the spread is less than 3 points on a top bet.

Redskins +3 over the Giants or Redskins to win

The Houston Texans defense has improved upon a slow start to the season to lead the team to three straight victories. They have allowed six points each to the Titans and Bengals and 17 to the Jets. The six points allowed to the Bengals was particularly impressive as Houston gave Cincinnati their first loss of the season. They are tied with the Indianapolis Colts for first place in the AFC South.

The New Orleans Saints spent their bye week working on their defense as they fired defensive coordinator Rob Ryan following the Redskins 47 point output two weeks ago. Whether they are able to improve the performance of their defense or not, the Saints will still have problems scoring against the Texans stout defense. I don’t expect the normal high scoring Saints game and the over/under is currently 48.

Brian Hoyer will return from a concussion to quarterback the Texans. He missed the Texans win over the Jets. Hoyer has 13 touchdowns in only seven games this season with only four interceptions and a 92.9 QB rating. Take the Texans -3 at home to beat the Saints.

Best Bet of the Week

Texans -3 over the Saints

Minnesota stumbled last week in a 30-13 loss to the Packers. Previous to that game, they had won five in a row and seven of their last eight games with the only loss by three points in Denver. Minnesota seemed to be very tight for the game versus the Packers but I expect them to rebound with a much stronger effort this week versus the Falcons.

Atlanta has won only once in their last five games and that was by only three points in Tennessee. Their losses have been in San Francisco and New Orleans and to the Colts and Buccaneers in Atlanta during that streak. Quarterback Matt Ryan has not played consistently and the Falcons lost their leading rusher, Devonta Freeman, last week.

I like Minnesota to win this week and if the spread was +3, it may have been the Best Bet of the Week. The spread however has been anywhere from +2.5 to +1. The money line may be the best way to go since I expect Minnesota to win but if the spread moves to +3, I would take the points.

Minnesota +3 over the Falcons or to win

The final Top Bet, I have for this week is the Denver Broncos +3 over the undefeated New England Patriots. This spread has dropped from about six points down to as low as +2 but is currently +3. Just as with Washington and Minnesota, I would look for a +3 spread or take the Broncos to win on the money line.

New England has had a rash of injuries, first to their offensive line and now to their receivers with both Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola out. They are due to lose a game and what better place than in Denver against the Broncos ferocious pass rush and top defense. Denver may even pressure Tom Brady into abnormal mistakes that affect the outcome.

Brock Osweiler has taken over for an injured Peyton Manning as the Broncos quarterback and despite his inexperience, he is an improvement over the ineffective and mistake prone player that Manning has been this season. Denver will still have problems scoring against a good Patriots defense so the game will probably also be under the listed total of 43.5 but I don’t like totals much so I will stay away from that.

Broncos +3 over the Patriots or to win

The Buccaneers and Browns are the only other teams that I like this week. I did pick all of the Thanksgivng games on twitter and went 2-1 on them. The Broncos narrowly beat the one point spread last week to raise my Best Bet of the Week record to 7-5 on the season. My Top Bets are 23-23 now with my overall record at 59-39-3.

San Diego State won and beat the spread by a half point and Virginia Tech pushed to bring my College Best Bet record to 7-1-1. My College Top Bets are a very good 25-8-1 and overall college record is 122-75-3. There is one more week of the college football regular season and I will be picking every conference championship game and bowl game on twitter.

For my college picks and changes to NFL picks including Thursday night games, please follow me on twitter @westcoast_skins. Good luck this week!

Next: Redskins at Panthers and Beating the Book