Redskins vs Saints and Beating the Book

Oct 4, 2015; Landover, MD, USA; Washington Redskins outside linebacker Ryan Kerrigan (91) leads the Washington Redskins on the field before the game between the Washington Redskins and the Philadelphia Eagles at FedEx Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

The Washington Redskins were thoroughly dominated in New England last Sunday. Seeing this many bookmakers downgraded them severely and they opened as underdogs to the New Orleans Saints. The spread has moved a few points towards the Redskins and they are now one point favorites at home.

The Saints have won four of their past six games to bring their record to 4-4. Three of their victories were at home with their best game coming on a Thursday night when they had many big plays versus the Falcons. The Saints only victory on the road was over Indianapolis when they also were gifted the game by Andrew Luck and the Colts.

Now the Redskins could definitely make mistakes and give the Saints another road victory but I don’t see that happening this week. Washington has gotten much healthier and Kirk Cousins is playing better over the past few games. They should get their run game going and limit the Saints run game much better defensively than what they have done versus other teams over the last few games.

This game was close to being my Best Bet of the Week but the Redskins injury history this season leaves it a notch below. Take the Redskins-1 over the Saints in one of my Top Bets of the Week.

Redskins -1 over the Saints

The St. Louis Rams lost a hard fought game to Minnesota last week on a field goal in overtime. In the two weeks prior to that, the Rams won in dominating fashion over the weak defenses of Cleveland and San Francisco. This week, they face another weak defense with Chicago.

The Bears won in San Diego on Monday night and now travel to St. Louis on short rest. Chicago has played a string of close games decided by three points or less over the past few weeks winning 3 of 5. They have shown an ability to come back versus weaker defenses.

Best Bet of the Week

Rams-7 over the Bears

The Green Bay Packers have struggled greatly over the past two weeks since their bye. They were blown out by the Broncos in Denver and were being blown out in Carolina before mounting a late comeback that fell short. Now the Packers return home to face the Lions.

Detroit is coming off their bye week with a 1-7 record. Their only victory came at home with a three point comeback win over the Bears. The Lions have lost every other game by at least nine points since losing by five in week one except for their three point loss in Seattle. The Lions futility culminated in a 45-10 loss to the Chiefs in London before their bye.

The Packers dominance in Green Bay will continue this week. They win at home and away when facing their division rivals but win more significantly at home. The Packers beat the Lions by ten in Green bay last season when the Lions were good and will win by even more with Detroit struggling. Take the Packers-10.5 over the Lions.

Packers-10.5 over the Lions

My final Top Bet of the Week for now is the Broncos. They are currently 4.5 point favorites over the Chiefs and have won by more than that for seven straight games over Kansas City. Over the past three years of their “Peyton Manning” era, the Broncos have won 7 of their 8 home games each year by at least seven points.

The Chiefs have rebounded from a slow start with victories over the Steelers and Lions before their bye week. They won in Pittsburgh when Landry Jones started in place of the injured Michael Vick and Ben Roethlisberger (hint: L again this week) and as the designated home team in London over the hapless Lions.

The Chiefs run game has continued on despite the loss of star Jamaal Charles for the season. The Broncos dominating defense will probably limit that well and keep the Chiefs points low with Alex Smith not a major threat to beat their defensive backs even without Aqib Talib this week. Take the Broncos-4.5 over the Chiefs.

Broncos-4.5 over the Chiefs

Their are other teams that I like this week to a significant degree but just below the four above. The Panthers defense will frustrate Marcus Mariota as the Panthers cover the 4 points in Tennessee. The Browns will cover the 6 points they are given in Pittsburgh.

To a lesser degree, I also like the Buccaneers, Bengals, Patriots and Minnesota. My Top Bet record climbed back to .500 at 18-18 and my Best Bet record rose to 6-4. Overall, my record is 47-27-2 on NFL games.

I followed up my worst week of college picks with my best week going 27-10 to raise my overall record to 80-48-2. I refined my college game rating system last week to an initial slow start but I was correct on 39 of 58 college games I rated versus the spread this week. My college best bet record is now 5-1 after winning with North Carolina and Top Bets are 18-6 for the season after going 4-1 this week with LSU’s stumble being my only loss.

Please follow me on twitter @westcoast_skins for my college picks and updates on other picks. Good Luck this week!

Next: Redskins at Patriots and Beating the Book

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