Oct 11, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Washington Redskins head coach Jay Gruden is shown before the Redskins game against the Atlanta Falcons at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
The Washington Redskins are off this week but the NFL has 12 other games today so Beating the Book must go on. This is a slow week for games but there is a marquee matchup in the Sunday night game with the undefeated Green Bay Packers traveling to Denver to play the undefeated Broncos. We will look at that match-up and three others today.
Best Bet of the Week
The Seattle Seahawks play at the Dallas Cowboys in one of the late games today. The Cowboys have been a very bad team since losing their quarterback, Tony Romo. They may have Romo’s top target, wide receiver Dez Bryant for this game but I wouldn’t expect him to be very effective. The Cowboys have lost four straight games without their top two stars and I expect the Seahawks to make it five.
The Seahawks have not been firing on all cylinders this season either. They come into this game with a 3-4 record but three of their losses have been against undefeated teams in the Packers, Bengals and Panthers. The Rams also beat Seattle in St. Louis to start the season.
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The Cowboys were not a great team at home in 2014 and have been bad in 2015. They won their first game despite being out-played by the Giants. Since then, they have looked bad in losses to the Falcons and Patriots. Seattle won 20-3 in San Francisco on Thursday last week and should be well rested for their trip to Dallas so take them to cover the 4 points and beat the Cowboys.
Seahawks -4 at the Cowboys
The Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions play in London today before their bye weeks. The Chiefs lost five straight games after beating the Texans in week one but rebounded to beat the Steelers last week. The Lions have been very bad with only a three point victory at home versus the Bears and six losses this season.
Although both teams have to travel across the Atlantic Ocean for the game, the designated home team has an advantage as they get to London earlier than the other team and get more acclimated there than the away team does. The Jaguars beat the Bills last week as the home team. The Chiefs are the home team for this match-up and I expect them to beat the struggling Lions easily.
Chiefs -3 over the Lions
The New York Giants have been an up and down team in 2015. On the road, they lost in Dallas despite playing well then beat the Bills handily in Buffalo and were trounced in Philadelphia. They have been much the same at home with a loss to the Falcons followed by their easy win versus the Redskins and a struggling win over the 49ers.
The New Orleans Saints have won two games in a row after losing four of their first five with their only victory being against the Cowboys at home. Since they have beaten the Falcons at home and the Colts in Indianapolis. In both of those victories however, they have had the benefit of turnovers getting three in each game and great special teams plays such as their blocked punt for a touchdown versus the Falcons.
The Giants are the better team and are getting three points versus the spread. Currently you can get even money on a bet versus the spread or if you think they will win the game you can bet the Giants on the money line at +150. This is the better bet to me as you win 50% more than your bet if the Giants win and only risk losses of 1-3 points where you would have won if you had taken the spread bet.
Giants +150 to win over the Saints
The Packers and the Broncos are both coming off of bye weeks which somewhat negates Denver’s home field advantage. Aaron Rodgers has been a much better quarterback this year than Peyton Manning has and the Packers offense has been much better than the Broncos offense. With Manning not his normal self this year, the Packers have a huge advantage on offense.
The Broncos have won this season on the strength of their defense. Four of their six victories featured defensive touchdowns which covered the margin of victory or they could be 2-4. The Packers defense has also been very good this year although they haven’t provided scores defensively like the Broncos.
The Packers don’t turn the ball over much with Rodgers at quarterback. Manning on the other hand has ten interceptions this year while Rodgers has only two which both came versus the Rams. The decided edge at quarterback will allow the Packers to cover the 2.5 points and beat the Broncos.
Packers -2.5 over the Broncos
There are a few other games which I like to a lesser degree including Minnesota, the Bengals and the Jets. Last week, I won two of my three Top Bets to raise my record to 13-14. My Best Bets are now 5-3 and overall, my record is 40-23-2.
I went 9-7 this week on college picks and hit my College Best Bet with USC to raise my record to 3-1. Overall, I am now 45-27-2. To get my college picks and updates on the NFL picks, follow me on twitter @westcoast_skins. Good luck this week!