Redskins at Jets and Beating the Book


Oct 11, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Washington Redskins wide receiver Jamison Crowder (80) makes a catch in the fourth quarter of their game against the Atlanta Falcons at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons won 25-19 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

The Washington Redskins will be short handed when they travel to New York to face the Jets today. Trent Williams, Kory Lichtensteiger, Chris Culliver, DeAngelo Hall, Jordan Reed and Desean Jackson will not play. In addition, they are playing their second straight road game while the Jets are coming off a bye after beating the Miami Dolphins in London.

The Jets have won three games by double digits and also lost to the Eagles by seven points at home. The Jets play the New England Patriots next week and may be looking forward to that game. Currently the Jets are seven point favorites over the Redskins.

This week, I see Kirk Cousins rebounding from his worst performance of the season and putting up a decent game versus the Jets vaunted pass defense. The Redskins will keep the score close if they don’t turn the ball over and allow their own defense to control the Jets offense. Expect a low scoring tightly fought game so take the Redskins+7 but make it a small play.

Redskins+7 over the Jets

The Seattle Seahawks lost a big game last week in Cincinnati. They squandered a large fourth quarter lead which dropped their record to 2-3. The Seahawks have lost all three of their road games and won both of their home games. This week they face the Carolina Panthers.

The Panthers have their defensive leader, Luke Kuechly returning for this game after missing the past few weeks with a concussion. They are undefeated with or without him but have played an easy schedule, beating the Jaguars, Texans, Saints and Buccaneers. I like the Seahawks-7 as my Best Bet of the Week.

Best Bet of the Week

Seahawks -7 over the Panthers

Odds makers have made many good teams heavy favorites this week. In addition, they have generally asked bettors to lay more juice to bet on those favorites versus the spread. The Green Bay Packers are one of those teams as they are ten point favorites over the San Diego Chargers. The Packers are at home for the second consecutive week where they have been almost unbeatable with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.

The Chargers are traveling cross country after a Monday night game loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Chargers have not looked good in most of their games despite their quarterback Phillip Rivers putting up good numbers. They should have put away a Steelers team playing without their franchise quarterback but lost on the final play of the game.

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The Packers passing game moves on without their leading receiver from last season, Jordy Nelson, because their quarterback is playing at an all-time great level. Rodgers had his worst game at home in four years and still beat the St. Louis Rams last week, 24-10. The Packers will cover the ten points versus the Chargers. Take the Packers-10.

Packers-10 over the Chargers

The Pittsburgh Steelers have gotten by very well without Roethlisberger. They won in St. Louis and San Diego but lost at home versus the Ravens. They are at home again this week but are facing one of the best teams in the NFL, the Arizona Cardinals.

The Cardinals had their upset loss two weeks ago when they lost to the Rams. I don’t expect a let down this week in Pittsburgh since their coach, Bruce Arians, was fired by the Steelers. If Roethlisberger was playing, this spread would be a one or two point edge for the Steelers but without him, they are currently five point underdogs.

Despite being a heavy favorite on the road, take the Cardinals-5 over the Steelers. This spread started with the Cardinals as a small one or two point favorite so it has seen a lot of action on the Cardinals. I originally had this game as my Best Bet of the Week at Arizona-1.5 and I still like them as a Top Bet.

Cardinals-5 over the Steelers

I like many other teams this week including the Patriots-10, Broncos-4, and Bengals-3 but they are all heavy favorites on the road. The percentage needed to bet on each of these teams has moved between 15% to 30%. I don’t suggest laying a large percentage when betting on teams often because this is the NFL and anything could happen.

This week in particular, I like a few teasers. Teasers are bets where the book makers will give you an extra 6-10 points on a team but will require you to bet on three or more teams and win all of them. An example could be Seattle+3, Green Bay-0 & New England-0 in which the bettor would give up 20% juice. It would take a $120 bet to win $100.

Another larger teaser with a better payout could be Denver+2.5, Cincinnati+3, Seattle-1, Green Bay-4 and New England-4 which would pay out 4-1. If the bettor put $100 on the teaser, they would win $400 if all five teams covered the spread.

I lost my first Best Bet of the Week last week so I am now 4-1 on the season. My Top Bets record has dropped to 11-10 after two straight sub-par weeks. My overall record remains good at 32-15-2 after going 6-4 last week and winning a top bet on Thursday with the Saints.

I had plays on way too many college games but went 13-7-2 although I lost my Best Bet when Nevada lost to Wyoming. My overall college record is now 30-18-2 with a 1-1 record on Best Bets. To get my college picks and any other NFL picks that may change, please follow me on twitter @westcoast_skins. Good luck this week!

Next: Redskins at Falcons and Beating the Book