Playoff Preview
By daveskins
Sorry for the delay, folks. The perils of having a baby in the house. We have to finish this little season preview today so we can get on to the business of celebrating the start of training camp.
Let’s look at the AFC first-
As you might recall, I predicted the Jets, Colts, Bengals and Denver to win their respective divisions. The Pats and Chargers are the likely wild card teams (with Jacksonville being the other contender) .
AFC Wild Card Round
#3 Indy vs. #6 San Diego- An opening round game of Indy and San Diego might just be the highest rated wild card game in NFL history. Ordinarily, I’d take the team with the best running game and defense. But in this case, the Colts running game is almost as good as the LT show and the coaching matchup trumps the defensive difference. In a high scoring affair, I pick the Colts.
#4 Cincy vs #5 New England- Totally unfair to the Bengals that they might have to play New England in the first round. By now, the Pats will have gelled (or Randy Moss will make that impossible and Jacksonville will be in this game) and the Bengals will be outclassed at every spot. New England wins big and sets up…
AFC Divisional Round
#1 New York vs # 5 New England- The marquis matchup of the week, and of course ESPN won’t be able to resist it. Pennington is no Brady. Coles and Cotchery are not Stallworth and Moss. Thomas Jones is the equal at best of Laurence Maroney. On defense, the Pats are a little deeper. In every way, New England is just a little bit better than the Jets. All that said, I think the Jets have an advantage in coaching. I know that the conventional wisdom is that Bill Belichick is a genius. I don’t buy it. I think the genius in New England is the front office. Without Weiss and Crennel, the Pats aren’t better coached than the Jets. The home field advantage plus a missed FG by Gostkowski will be enough for the Jets to win.
#2 Denver vs #3 Indy- Denver is very good, but Cutler is not really ready for prime time. In the battle of the horse teams, I think Indy will air it out in the thin air of Denver and cruise again.
AFC Conference Championship
#1 New York vs. #3 Indy- I’m sure Peyton Manning remembers the egg he laid in New Jersey a few years back, and will be eager to erase the memory. But the home field advantage is tough in New York. I just can’t see Chad Pennington’s weak arm doing damage to Indy’s cover 2 defense. I think this is a tough game but Indy is going back to the Super Bowl.
And now the NFC. As you may recall, I predicted Washington, Detroit, San Fran, and New Orleans winning their divisions with Chicago and St. Louis taking the wild card slots.
NFC Wild Card Round
#3 Washington vs #6 Chicago- A rematch from the regular season. As I said, we’ve had good results against them lately. If Campbell is worse than Grossman it isn’t by much. Portis and our receivers are much better than theirs and our o-line, too. Yes, their defense is better than ours but has taken some hits. I think we can win in a close one, particularly at home.
#4 Detroit vs #5 St. Louis- The northern version of the Greatest Show on Turf takes on the old southern version. The old saw is defense and rushing wins play off games. The defenses are equally average. And if Steven Jackson is not enough, Marc Bulger and Tory Holt are a step above Kitna and Roy Williams. St. Louis wins.
NFC Divisional round
#1 New Orleans vs. #5 St. Louis- Another turf game for the Rams who historically play worse on grass. Still, the Saints are simply superior. Drew Brees is the best possession QB in the game and they simply have too many weapons. Their defense is better too, which isn’t going to true every week. The score will be closer than the game because Bulger and Holt will hit a couple of bombs. But the Saints win.
#2 49ers vs #3 Redskins- These are two very similar teams. Young QBs with injury prone RBs, one great receiver and suspect defenses. Ordinarily, you go with the home team in this situation, but hey, this is a Redskins web site and we’re Redskins fans. In Gibbs we trust!
NFC Championshp Game-
#1 New Orleans vs #3 Washington- Hrmm…I can’t do it. I just can’t find a way for us to win this. Drew Brees has more experience and ability than Campbell. Bush and McCallister are every bit as goof if not better than Portis and Betts. Their defense is more solid. I just don’t see how we can go on the road with a QB with such little experience and hope to win. A valiant season ends, but with plenty to build on for next season.
Super Bowl
The Saints will be everybody’s sentimental favorite now that Manning has his ring. And there’s little to imagine that won’t be enough to carry them trough. Two great offenses with average defenses facing each other means it comes down to coaching and who wants it more. Since the coaching is pretty even, we’ll assume the nationwide home field advantage is enough. The Saints will be your Super Bowl champions and what a party they’ll throw!
-DW