How Sam Howell's past can define his future as Commanders franchise QB

Could Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell's past provide an insight into how successful he can become in 2023?

There's no denying the success - or failure - of Sam Howell entering the 2023 season as the Washington Commanders' starting quarterback will have massive implications for this year and beyond.

Ron Rivera and the upper management opted to draft Chase Young with the No. 2 overall pick three years ago. At the time, it felt like the right choice. But while injuries have hindered his dominant rookie campaign, the Los Angeles Chargers just locked up quarterback Justin Herbert to a record-breaking five-year, $262.5 million contract extension, averaging $52.5 million per year.

Washington opted not to trigger Young's fifth-year option, hoping it will motivate him for a monster comeback year. The former Oregon quarterback was taken just four picks after the Commanders opted for a player deemed as a generational talent as a pass rusher.

There's no crystal ball to project how a prospect will translate to the NFL. But at this point, it appears as if the coaching staff - and most of the fan base - are all in on Howell as their potential franchise signal caller.

Here are a few reasons to validate their decision to bet all their chips on last year's fifth-round draft pick.

Sam Howell dominated his first two college years

Sam Howell was once deemed as the potential future first-round pick and Heisman Trophy contender following his early success at North Carolina after two seasons as the starter. He was rated as a four-star prospect, and the No. 3 quarterback of the 2019 class according to 247 Sports.

Howell's dominance at Sun Valley High School in Monroe, North Carolina earned him offers from nearly every elite program in the country. These included Alabama, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, Clemson, Ole Miss, Florida State, Miami, and just about everyone else.

The undersized high-character dual-threat passer was intriguing for his natural arm strength, accuracy, and ability to use his lower body power to aid him as a thrower and a runner. Howell was seen as a rare gifted athlete, who also thrived in baseball, and could use his legs to move out of the pocket and beat teams as a runner when the situation called for it.

Howell initially committed to the Seminoles. But when Mack Brown was hired to revive the Tar Heels - and added Phil Longo as their offensive coordinator - he returned home and the decision paid off immediately.

During his freshman year, Howell started all 13 games in 2019 and set multiple records while earning a bevy of accolades.

After taking over the most important position for a team that won just two games the following season, Howell led the Tar Heels to a (7-6) finish in 2019 that concluded with a dominating 55-13 victory over Temple in the Military Bowl. He completed 24-of-35 pass attempts for three touchdowns, and no picks, even recording a receiving touchdown to put the icing on the cake.

Suddenly, Howell's early success in Chapel Hill put him on the national radar. In 2020, he delivered once again.

Howell led the ACC and ranked sixth nationally with 30 touchdown passes and his 68 over his first two seasons are the most through a sophomore year in ACC history. The quarterback topped the conference and was fourth nationally with 3,586 passing yards, 30 passing scores, and just seven interceptions.

He closed out his second college season with an impressive quarterback efficiency rating of 178.6, added another five touchdowns on the ground, and even recorded a rare feat in a critical game late in the campaign where Howell threw a touchdown, ran for another and also recorded a receiving score. This helped the Tar Heels secure an 8-4 finish and an Orange Bowl matchup against Texas A&M.

In a piece about Howell's quest to take down the ACC powerhouse Clemson ahead of the 2021 season written for Yahoo Sports by Pete Thamel, there was a quote from his offensive coordinator that sums up the young quarterback's mentality and approach to the game.

" He wants to be the best ever. He wants to be better than anybody in the country. He wants to go to the NFL so he can try to prove the same thing there."

Phil Longo via Yahoo Sports

Suddenly Howell was a household name heading into his junior season at UNC. He was on Heisman Trophy watch lists and NFL Draft experts were touting him as a clear top pick for 2022.

Why did Sam Howell fall so far in the 2022 NFL Draft?

After losing his two top wide receivers and running backs to the NFL - while attempting to thrive with an offensive line that was replacing three starters from the previous two seasons - Sam Howell quite literally had to put the offense on his back.

Naturally, Howell's production - in comparison to his first two seasons in Chapel Hill - took a step back. All of his weapons were gone, including Dyami Brown, who was taken by the Washington Commanders.

Still, he was far from awful. Howell completed 217 of his 347 passing attempts for 24 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Not a bad season at all, but a step back from his first two years.

The bright side? Whether by design to disguise offensive deficiencies, or Howell improvising when plays broke down, he showcased his dual-threat ability in a major way, rushing for 828 yards while adding 11 touchdowns on the ground.

I'm far from a qualified NFL talent evaluator. But it's truly tough to understand exactly why Howell fell as far as he did before the Commanders scooped him up at No. 144 overall.

Howell closed out his time at North Carolina ranked third in ACC history with 92 career passing touchdowns - the most ever by a player in three or fewer seasons. He ranks fifth in touchdowns responsible for (111), eighth in total offense (11,292), fifth in passing yards (10,283), second in passing yards per game (277.9), and second in passing efficiency (164.2)

Additionally, he owns nearly every important quarterback record at h Tar Heels for good measure..

How will Sam Howell's past help his Commanders future?

Even with the drop-off in his final season at North Carolina, the now-Washington Commanders snagging Sam Howell in the fifth round was an absolute steal. I covered the ACC during his tenure with the Tar Heels and watched/analyzed/studied every game. I still viewed him as a late first-round selection heading into last year's draft.

There were/continue to be plenty of skeptics. But I don't feel like a fanboy saying Washington could have finally found its franchise quarterback that has been as elusive as discovering some long-lost buried treasure.

Here are a few of the excerpts from the Bleacher Report scouting team on Howell ahead of the 2022 NFL Draft, where he was compared to Jalen Hurts. Yes, the same Philadelphia Eagles' signal-caller who stunned the NFL last year.

"Sam Howell is a tough quarterback with a good, strong build but below-average height for the position. He throws a very catchable deep ball and is able to get distance while also consistently getting a high arc on deep throws. Howell has good overall arm strength and flashes the ability to drive the ball when in rhythm on shorter and intermediate throws.Howell is a tough runner and can make plays happen with his legs. He is willing to take a shot, and he can fire up the rest of his team when he picks up a nice gain. He can handle designed QB runs in between the tackles because of his play strength, adequate athleticism and burst."

Bleacher Report scouting team

ESPN's Dan Orlovsky recently summed it up perfectly. While plenty of the national media is down on Howell, there are a few that view him as a big-time sleeper heading into the new NFL season.

The ESPN analyst took it a step further by breaking down some of Howell's mechanics during his lone NFL start against the Dallas Cowboys to close out last season.

Sam Howell comparisons

Any rational Washington Commanders fan understands last year's finale against the Dallas Cowboys was a minimal sample size. But when you combine that with the success Sam Howell had in preseason plus his overall college career, there's plenty of room for optimism.

The only quarterback that showed true potential from last year's class was Kenny Pickett for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Both Malik Willis and Matt Corral appear to be fighting just to keep a roster spot.

Has Desmond Ridder shown enough with the Atlanta Falcons? Bringing in Taylor Heinicke was telling, but the same could be said for the Commanders adding Jacoby Brissett for insurance.

Still, for my money, I'd take Howell over any quarterback from last year's class, including Pickett. I just feel like there's so much untapped potential that casual observers - or folks that didn't study all of his college production in full - are missing.

Dan Orlovsky's earlier Russell Wilson comparison makes perfect sense. He's mobile but doesn't rely on his legs to make plays like Lamar Jackson, Mike Vick, or Robert Griffin III. His accuracy, deep ball, and ability to move in the pocket when a play breaks down are his biggest strengths. He carries humble confidence that's key to thriving in the NFL.

Howell often gets Baker Mayfield as a comparison. I don't think that's a bad thing.

Mayfield was a former No. 1 overall pick that broke the rookie touchdown record in 2018. He led the Cleveland Browns to their first playoff appearance since 2002 and won - a feat that hadn't been accomplished for that franchise since 1994.

The Browns finished that year with an impressive 11-5 record. A mix of injuries and a feud with upper management derailed Mayfield's 2021 campaign, which led them to ultimately trade him to the Carolina Panthers and give an unprecedented, absurd contract to Deshaun Watson.

If Howell can have the kind of success Mayfield did during those first few years in Cleveland, Washington fans will be ecstatic.

Pro Football Focus has Howell as the 27th starting quarterback heading into the 2023 season ahead of Anthony Richardson, Ridder, C.J. Stroud, Colt McCoy, and Mayfield. Jordan Love and Bryce Young are ranked just ahead.

These preseason rankings and lists are meaningless. Who saw Geno Smith resurrecting his career last season or Brock Purdy going from Mr. Irrelevant to leading the San Francisco 49ers to the NFC Championship game? Almost nobody believed Jalen Hurts would play as well as he did and cement himself as the top signal caller in the NFC.

Orlovsky summed it up perfectly. It doesn't make sense why Howell fell to the fifth round in last year's draft. But Commanders' fans should be thrilled he did.

Why Sam Howell is set up for immediate success in 2023

This is arguably the most talented roster - on both sides of the ball - the Washington Commanders had in more than a decade. The defense finished in the top ten last season in nearly every metric and has only added more talent while hoping the health of Chase Young can propel a good group to a dominant one.

On offense, the dynamic wide receiving corps will create matchup nightmares for opposing defenses. All three starters can be used creatively with reverses or packages where they line up in the backfield to keep the opponent guessing. Everyone knows Sam Howell has familiarity with Dyami Brown, so he could take on a bigger role this year.

Both running backs, Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson are above-average runners and natural pass catchers, giving Eric Bieniemy so many options to get creative with his game plans and make Howell's job easier.

Logan Thomas appears to be more explosive than ever in camp so far. Cole Turner and John Bates could be used in two tight-end sets to confuse defenses.

There are fair and unanswered questions along the offensive line, but Bieniemy is known for using creative shifts and schemes to address any weaknesses that may arise upfront. Still, while unproven, the Commanders' protection could emerge as a pleasant surprise. Only time will tell, but that group is the only real question mark.

Let's not forget Bieniemy was on the Kansas City Chiefs during every year of Patrick Mahomes' growth. This included two Super Bowl victories, despite turnover at key positions year after year.

A truly great offensive coordinator maximizes the strengths of the talent he has. Bieniemy has an arsenal at his disposal.

No, Howell will not be Mahomes. The point is that a young quarterback's success largely has to do with the talent and skill set he brings to the table, where he lands and the coaches responsible for his development and skilled talent surrounding him.

All those boxes are checked. Just like Howell thrived with Phil Longo and a bevy of offensive weapons at North Carolina, the same can be said when predicting how he will play with Bieniemy and an offense loaded with talent heading into 2023.

There will be mistakes, learning points, and head-scratching moments. But the Commanders' defense has the talent to be a top-five unit and should be good enough to keep this team in most games.

There is too much talent on this offense and Bieniemy is known for creative scheming to keep defenses constantly guessing. Howell may not be asked to do everything, but he's not going to be a game manager as we have seen from so many past Commanders quarterbacks.

It's also fair to note that Bieniemy - widely touted as one of the top offensive minds in the NFL with the league's top QB at his disposal - took the Commanders' job knowing Howell was the plan. That should not be understated.

Howell has had a noticeable confidence in press conferences this year that we didn't witness during his limited opportunities behind the mic last season. He showed enough during last year's preseason and in the finale against the Dallas Cowboys to give fans optimism.

He had almost a full season to sit on the bench, study in meetings and learn how to be a successful starter in the NFL. Mahomes followed that same route, sitting behind Alex Smith as a rookie.

Fans will have to be patient because it won't always look pretty. But everything is in place for Howell to succeed and solidify himself as the franchise quarterback.

The future of Ron Rivera and the current coaching staff sticking around beyond 2023 is largely reliant on Howell. All signs point to him being fully capable of leading this new offense to put up points, while the defense keeps other teams from lighting up the scoreboard.

Only time will tell, but I would be surprised to see a scenario (barring injury) where Howell is benched for Jacoby Brissett. He has every tool necessary to thrive as an NFL starter, and his time at North Carolina should serve as a reminder of how special he can be when he is set up for success.

Now we just wait, hope and see.