What must Washington Commanders head coach Ron Rivera accomplish to get a reprieve from Josh Harris' new ownership group beyond 2023?
It's a new day in the nation's capitol and while the energy and optimism has skyrocketed since Josh Harris, Magic Johnson, and the new ownership group officially bought the Washington Commanders last week, there are major questions regarding the current staff in place.
While there are so many factors that go into play when analyzing Rivera's three years in Washington, the facts are simple. He has been the definition of mediocre.
While there's no denying Rivera is one of the more respected coaches throughout the NFL, Harris and the new ownership group has emphasized winning as the top priority. There is also a clear strategy in place based on his comments via The Washington Times, which might take some time.
"You win championships with the best people in the front office, the best coaching staff. You win by investing. You win by creating a fan experience where people want to come out and support the team. This is really hard. And you win by creating an amazing culture, which we talked about is about respect, inclusivity and diversity."Josh Harris via The Washington Times
So how does Rivera and other influential figures within the organization survive past 2023? There are three distinct answers.
Commanders defense must be dominant
There's no denying this is the most talented roster Ron Rivera has had heading into a new season in D.C. For the most part, the team has drafted well under him - and the additions of Emmanuel Forbes and Jartavius Martin in the first two rounds of the 2023 NFL Draft sent a clear message.
While the defense has clearly been the strength of the team - finishing top 10 in the NFL last season in nearly every metric - there was too much reliance on the dominant front four. There were obvious holes at the linebacker spot and in the secondary that could have turned losses into wins.
Now that Rivera - a longtime defensive-minded head coach -- has doubled down by drafting two players on that side of the ball with the team's opening picks back in April, the decision has to have an immediate payoff.
The team allowed 26 passing touchdowns, the second most of any defense within the top ten of the league, while only giving up 10 touchdowns on the ground.
The Washington Commanders' defense had just 18 turnovers compared to their rival Dallas Cowboys' league-leading 33. Of those, only nine interceptions were recorded in 2022. So Rivera and the upper management went out and got two defensive backs to make a very good defense great.
With a young, unproven quarterback, Rivera understands his defense may need to keep the team in games more often than not. If Chase Young can return to the version we saw his rookie year, Jamin Davis can build on last year's growth at linebacker, and Cody Barton can deliver a season similar to his production with the Seattle Seahawks, this defense could be truly elite.
There is a flip side to this coin. If Davis slips, Barton underperforms and the two young defensive backs turn out to be busts, it will be a direct indictment of Rivera and his plan for 2023.
Plain and simple, the Commanders have the talent to finish with a top-five defense this season and that will be necessary to accomplish what they want to.
Commanders must develop Sam Howell
Like every coach before him under the Dan Snyder regime that lasted more than two decades, Ron Rivera has yet to find a franchise quarterback. After inheriting Dwayne Haskins and releasing him during his first season, the head coach leaned on backups and reserves to win the division with a 7-9 record in 2020 and sneak into the playoffs.
He opted to throw in his chips on Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2021. That didn't even last one game after the journeymen signal-caller went down with an injury in Week 1.
Rivera turned to Taylor Heinicke to finish out the season - and while the undersized gun-slinger became a favorite among fans and his teammates - he has always appeared to be a solid backup at best.
Last season, Rivera, Martin Mayhew, and the upper management apparently explored all options at quarterback, reportedly making a run at Russell Wilson before ultimately signing Carson Wentz.
Another failure.
Wentz never looked remotely comfortable during the few games he started. After suffering an injury, the door for Heinicke once again.
With a wildcard spot still very much possible, Rivera opted to go with Wentz over Heinicke in a winnable Week 16 matchup against the Cleveland Browns. The former No. 2 overall selection failed miserably, Washington was knocked out of the playoff race, and the team got to see a glimpse of Sam Howell to close out the campaign.
While Howell fell to the fifth round, many NFL draft experts viewed him much higher. There appears to be clear optimism around the former North Carolina star - and if Rivera can turn a Day 3 selection into the franchise quarterback this team has been longing for, it will pay dividends for his future in Washington.
Eric Bieniemy was hired for a reason. Sure, there are some question marks on the offensive line and at tight end, but the former Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator came into a situation with a bevy of talent at his disposal.
Terry McClaurin has cemented himself as one of the top wideouts in the league, while Jahan Dotson appears to be another No. 1 on the opposite side. Curtis Samuel has flashed when healthy, but he's the kind of weapon Bieniemy can get creative with while designing quarterback-friendly packages.
Add the running back duo of Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson into the mix, and the new Commanders' play-caller can craft an offense to maximize Howell's strengths. At least on paper.
Rivera is an old-school defensive-minded head coach. That's okay now that he's brought in an innovative offensive coordinator to develop a promising young quarterback.
While Howell will have head-scratching learning moments, the fan base wants to see this staff develop a future franchise presence under center. If he struggles mightily in the first four games and is replaced by Jacoby Brissett, that's a failure that will be noted by Josh Harris and the new owners.
Commanders must win a playoff game
If the first two things come true in 2023, the Washington Commanders will be in a prime position to make the playoffs. While the Philadelphia Eagles appear to be the premier team in the NFC, the conference is wide open and every division matchup is winnable.
The non-division schedule has some tough matchups like the Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers, and Miami Dolphins. But there are several games Washington could be favored in within the conference.
The season opener against the Arizona Cardinals without Kyler Murray is a must-win to start the campaign off right at FedEx Field. The Thursday night matchup against a rising Chicago Bears team could go either way - but feels winnable.
Road trips to the Atlanta Falcons, Seattle Seahawks, and Los Angeles Rams all feel within reach. The out-of-conference matchups against the Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, and even New York Jets don't feel too big to overcome. It's not hard to see this team winning 10 games if everything falls into place.
That's the key.
The Commanders haven't won a playoff game since beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wildcard Round of 2005. That's an 18-year draught.
Josh Harris and the new ownership have emphasized winning at the forefront. Therefore, Ron Rivera needs to break the streak to stick around.
A dominant defense, slightly above average offense that shows improvement week to week, and clear growth from a young quarterback is the formula to making it happen. All the pieces appear to be in place, now it's just about execution.