Is there any chance that Michigan’s national championship quarterback J.J. McCarthy will be wearing a Washington Commanders uniform next season? There was a brief buzz about how much Adam Peters liked the quarterback several weeks ago, fueling speculation that the Michigan star might vault over more prominent names and become the No. 2 pick.
Those reports have died off and it seems unlikely that McCarthy goes No. 2 - either to Washington or any team the Commanders might swing a deal with. But he is still in the picture, especially with a trade-back.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at Jonathan James McCarthy. Specifically, the pros and cons of Washington making him the second player off the board.
Commanders could draft J.J. McCarthy at No. 2
McCarthy has been the Wolverines starting quarterback since early in his sophomore season when he beat out Cade McNamara for the job. On paper, his performance has been truly outstanding. Playing against elite Big Ten competition, he won 27 out of the 28 games he started.
Statistically, he improved in each of his seasons, culminating in an exceptional 2023 which saw him complete more than 72 percent of his throws, at an average of nine yards-per-pass, and toss 22 touchdowns against just four interceptions. Apart from the touchdown total, those are all elite numbers.
Despite this and the resulting national championship, when the college season ended, McCarthy was typically grouped into the second tier of prospects along with Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix. Most analysts had them rated as Day 2 picks, while the top three - Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels - were firmly entrenched at the top.
In the weeks after the season ended, McCarthy began creeping up on analysts lists and mock draft boards alike. That is not unusual. It seems that every year, at least one quarterback begins to climb once the campaign concludes. In 2018, Baker Mayfield vaulted over players like Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen, who had been thought of as top-pick contenders during the college season. In 2021, Alabama’s Mac Jones went No. 15 overall.
With quarterbacks, grade inflation is a very real thing.
The task that general managers have in front of them is to figure out whether McCarthy is the next Jones - a slightly above-average player who benefitted in college from having an elite roster around him - or someone more along the lines of Alex Smith, a very talented quarterback whose name has come up a lot when looking for comparisons.
To cross sports metaphors - is Jim Harbaugh the Dean Smith to J.J. McCarthy’s Michael Jordan?
Smith, the old joke goes, was the only person who could hold Jordan under 20 points per game. Did Harbaugh’s conservative offensive strategy allow McCarthy to shine or did it hinder his ability to show what he could do? Let’s take a deeper look at the positives and negatives surrounding the signal caller.
Pros of the Commanders drafting J.J. McCarthy
First and foremost, J.J. McCarthy is a winner. His outstanding record in college is a mere continuation of what he accomplished in high school. If he's under center, any team has stood an excellent chance of winning a football game.
Part of that has to do with talent - both McCarthy’s and that of his teammates. But it goes beyond physical gifts.
Early in his sophomore season, when he was locked in a battle with Cade McNamara for the starting job, Anthony Broome of The Wolverine spoke with players about the two quarterbacks. While none of them had a negative word to say about McNamara, they were positively glowing about McCarthy.
Punter Brad Robbins, who spent six seasons in Ann Arbor, spoke about his leadership and empathy. He said McCarthy inspires his teammates because he can relate to all of them. The defenders who practiced against him every day spoke about his aggressiveness and willingness to make quick decisions when he saw an opening.
Leadership and aggressiveness mean little if you don’t have the physical tools to back them up. McCarthy has an above-average arm. At the NFL Scouting Combine, he hit 61 miles per hour on his best throw. That’s elite velocity for a quarterback. The last testing number that high belonged to Josh Allen.
Of course, velocity isn’t everything, but it’s a nice tool to have.
McCarthy proved he could make almost all the throws required of a quarterback during the 2023 season. He was accurate on short and medium-range passes. The 72 percent completion rate is a testament to that. He rose from 57% in limited duty as a freshman to 65% as a sophomore before hitting his exceptional percentage during the previous campaign.
That is another of the most attractive attributes McCarthy offers. He has steadily improved. And he will not turn 22 years old until his first NFL season has concluded.
He is the youngest elite quarterback prospect in the draft. Only Drake Maye, several months older, is close. The others all have a year or two on them. What that means to scouts is that McCarthy may not have come close to reaching his potential. He will continue to mature physically and with proper coaching, should improve his decision-making as well.
If he had not already shown the ability to compete at an elite level, that youth might be a mark against him. But since he is already at or near the level of the best quarterbacks in the draft, the growth potential is very enticing. McCarthy has a high floor already, and a potentially enormous ceiling.
Those things all matter, but what is most appealing about McCarthy is what an outstanding all-around athlete he is. This is why he is not the second coming of Mac Jones.
McCarthy ran an elite 3-cone time of 6.82 seconds. This drill is all about how well a player can move and maintain speed and balance while changing direction. Elite pass rushers tend to have excellent times. The national championship winner time would be top-level for a linebacker who may be trying to catch him in the pocket.
McCarthy - who has very good straight-line speed - is even better when he has to display agility in the pocket. That gives him the escapability that is so highly valued in today's NFL. He has a level of comfort in the pocket that is required of all great passers.
Finally, when a play breaks down, McCarthy can run. He has the speed and athleticism to elude pass rushers and has the vision to get yards in the open field. He is not the runner that Jayden Daniels is, but he is very effective when needed.
Cons of the Commanders drafting J.J. McCarthy
Every quarterback has issues. J.J. McCarthy is no exception.
Critics point out that Jim Harbaugh did not ask him to make nearly as many big-time, pressure throws as the other quarterbacks slated to go atop the draft. That’s where his 22 touchdown throws during 2023 raise red flags. It’s a good number, but first-round prospects of late sometimes throw twice that many. Most at least hit 30.
There’s no real way to counter that argument. It’s undeniable. What you can say is that McCarthy ran a pro-style offense under Harbaugh and he did everything that was asked to win games. Will that translate into wins in the NFL? Impossible to know.
McCarthy’s success was not wholly a function of having elite teammates, which is another common knock on him. Michigan did have an outstanding defense and very good skill position players. But he produced in 2023 playing behind a fairly average offensive line.
After guard Zak Zinter went down with an injury in late November, center Drake Nugent was the only premier lineman playing for the Wolverines this season. Their tackle play was merely serviceable in 2023. Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, and Michael Penix Jr. all played behind superior pass-blocking. Only Drake Maye played behind an inferior line.
McCarthy was not especially accurate on deep balls - especially balls outside the hashes. Those are throws that require both power and touch. As such, they are extremely difficult.
This is one of the things that scouts have marveled at when watching Jayden Daniels in 2023. McCarthy’s arm strength gives him a tendency to overpower those throws. He will need to develop better touch, especially on deeper distribution.
There are a few physical numbers that could be concerning. McCarthy was listed at 203 pounds at the beginning of the 2023 season, but he weighed 219 at the NFL Scouting Combine. That is a big difference for a quarterback, especially in the wake of concerns over Bryce Young’s slender frame.
Is McCarthy big enough to take the physical abuse an NFL quarterback must withstand? This is where his youth also provides a possible answer. He is still maturing physically. Were he to stay on the slender side, it might be cause for concern. The signal-caller should comfortably carry several more pounds and thicken that frame as he ages.
His hand size won’t change, which is on the small side. That used to be more of a concern in bad weather, when grip becomes a factor, and were more prone to fumbling. Plenty of quarterbacks with hand sizes below the ideal have succeeded over the years. However, though McCarthy was only credited with one lost fumble during his time at Michigan, he did put the ball on the turf 11 times in three seasons.
I have McCarthy rated as the No. 3 quarterback in this draft class, behind Williams and Daniels. His physical tools are not quite as impressive as those of Maye, but he has been a more reliable, consistent performer who is a proven leader.
If he ends up in the right situation, McCarthy will be a very good starter in the NFL. Unless the Washington Commanders trade back in the first round, they shouldn't take him.
That said, McCarthy will go in the top 10. With the inflation of quarterback value that happens in every modern draft, he could go in the 4-6 range when it's all said and done.