What potential scenarios could Washington Commanders general manager Adam Peters consider at No. 2 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft?
When the season ended and we all learned that the Washington Commanders would have the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, many scenarios were on the table. As new general manager Adam Peters began to make his first moves to rebuild the roster, that list of scenarios shrunk.
Plenty of curve balls could still upset the apple cart. But with the draft getting closer, it appears that Peters has four viable strategies regarding that first selection. Two of them are very likely. The other two are long shots.
We’ll take them one at a time. First, let’s quickly discuss the strategies that are no longer viable.
There was a short-lived conversation about the possibility of trading up with the Chicago Bears for the No. 1 pick and a shot at Caleb Williams. That never seemed likely, and it became moot when they dealt Justin Fields to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Poles will keep the top selection and select the USC prospect.
There was also a chance that Peters would decide Sam Howell was a good bet going forward if he could be surrounded by more talent. The Commanders could have traded down from No. 2 and gotten quite a bit in return. Then they could have used that wealth to build a young offensive line and get a couple of dynamic pass catchers.
That was a popular notion amongst some fans. Peters and his staff did not see Howell as a championship-caliber signal caller, and they traded him away. That virtually ensured that they would select a quarterback - probably with their first-round pick.
Washington might have pursued a veteran quarterback - someone like Kirk Cousins or Russell Wilson. That would have also allowed them to trade down and jump-start the roster overhaul with additional selections. But that never seemed likely.
Peters always clarified that he was not looking for a quick fix. He wants to build a quality roster from the ground up, primarily through the draft. Here are four potential scenarios the front-office leader could go down with the No. 2 selection.
Commanders could stand pat
This was always the most likely path, and it remains so.
It makes the most sense if the Washington Commanders have identified a clear favorite from the three quarterbacks who come after Caleb Williams on most draft boards. These are Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, and J.J. McCarthy.
If Adam Peters is convinced one of them - let’s say Daniels for the sake of argument - is a much better bet than the other two, then the move is easy. He remains at No. 2 and takes the LSU prospect.
This becomes trickier if he has all three rated roughly the same. Something that brings alternatives into play.
Commanders could trade back and then up
If the Washington Commanders begin fielding serious offers for the No. 2 pick, they will get a great deal of interest. There are an awful lot of teams desperate to move into the spot and grab a potentially franchise-changing quarterback.
Assuming Washington does trade back out of the top four, they will then have to trade back up to ensure they get a premium prospect under center. Quarterbacks will likely go 1-2-3. Though it has never happened before, a signal-caller will probably be drafted No. 4.
The Arizona Cardinals - who currently hold the pick - will not take him. They could well trade back themselves with a team that wants the fourth quarterback. However, this would involve missing out on generational wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.
If Washington does trade back, Adam Peters has to be sure they are the team that is dealing with the Cardinals to move back up.
The most attractive trading partner in this scenario is the New York Giants. Forget anything you may feel about trading within the division. If it helps the team, you make the deal.
The Giants are desperate to move up. Washington could demand a lot from them. According to draft board values, the Commanders should expect to get New York’s second and third-round picks this year along with a very high draft pick - first or second-round - in 2025 by dropping back four spots.
This only makes sense if the Cardinals see wide receivers Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze as comparable to Harrison. In the same way that Washington might simply stay at No. 2 and take their favorite quarterback, Arizona may not be willing to trade back if they have their hearts set on the Ohio State phenom. If they move from No. 4 to No. 6, they don’t get him. But there are other elite wideouts available if they make a deal.
If the Commanders don't make a deal with the Giants, this strategy doesn't work. They would probably have to move back into the teens. The other teams in the second half of the top 10 have no motivation to move up. The Minnesota Vikings would give up a king’s ransom for Washington’s pick, but they cannot offer enough to ensure Washington will be able to move back up into the top four and get one of the premier quarterbacks.
There is another option in play here, albeit far less likely. What if Peters has his eye on a dark horse quarterback?
Commanders could do a straight trade-back
If the Washington Commanders do not feel the need to take one of the top four quarterbacks, Adam Peters has a lot more freedom. When it’s all said and done, Michael Penix Jr. will be drafted in the first round. If he’s the one coveted by the general manager above all else, he will have to make sure he doesn’t drop below No. 15.
As previously mentioned, if Peters rates Penix highly, he could swing a deal with the Minnesota Vikings to get a ton of draft capital and then grab the Washington Huskies prospect at No. 11.
The same essentially applies to Bo Nix, who may sneak into the first round as well. The Oregon gunslinger could still be on the board by the time of the Commanders' second pick at No. 36 overall. But if you want to be sure, Peters may have to secure a pick at the end of the first round.
There are no other quarterbacks worth drafting before Day 3 this year. At that point, someone like Jordan Travis could be a developmental third-stringer. Michael Pratt, Spencer Rattler, or Joe Milton come with significant red flags attached.
There is one other unlikely possibility. That happens if Washington has two of its three targets - Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and J.J. McCarthy - rated comparably.
Commanders could do a short trade-back
This only makes sense if the New England Patriots desperately want one of the three non-Caleb Williams signal callers and the Washington Commanders have two of them rated roughly the same. If that's the case, Adam Peters could swing a deal with the Pats to drop back one spot.
He could probably get an additional third-rounder and something else - maybe a fourth-rounder this year or a higher-round pick next year. New England probably won't do this, but it remains a distant possibility.
As of today, I make it a 65 percent chance for scenario one - standing pat and getting a quarterback with the No. 2 pick. I put scenario two - the “trade-back/trade-up” - at 25%. The other two scenarios each have about a 5% chance of happening. It all depends on two things that no one knows.
First - how does Washington rate Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and J.J. McCarthy? Second, just as important, what are the Arizona Cardinals thinking?
A lot of people think the Commanders hold the key to the first round. I disagree. I think it’s Arizona.
Ever since McCarthy moved into the upper echelon, they have been in the catbird seat. There are four premium quarterbacks. The first three teams want one. The fourth team doesn’t. That gives that fourth team - the Cardinals - enormous leverage.