What could the Washington Commanders take from last year's shocking win at the Philadelphia Eagles into their Week 4 matchup?
Last November, the Washington Commanders went into Lincoln Financial Field and handed the Philadelphia Eagles their first loss of the season. It was one of the most unlikely outcomes of the year.
The Commanders were an 11-point underdog going against the last undefeated team in the league. Yet somehow they managed a 32-21 victory – their first win by more than a touchdown the entire season.
It began a four-game unbeaten streak that should have put Washington into the playoffs, had they not fallen apart in the final month.
Can the Commanders do it again in 2023? It'll be tricky, especially after their disastrous home loss against the Buffalo Bills in Week 3.
The Eagles opened as an 8.5-point favorite and once again are undefeated. Washington can match the hosts at most positions, but Philadelphia has a massive advantage at quarterback and along the offensive line.
So what is the blueprint for leaving Philadelphia with another big upset victory? Let’s take a peek at last year’s game for some answers.
Commanders must win the turnover battle
Last year, the Philadelphia Eagles outgained the Washington Commanders by a full 1.5 yards per play. That is a huge number and virtually guarantees victory. But not if the side with the bigger number turns the ball over.
That is what happened last year.
Philadelphia averaged 5.6 yards-per-play to Washington’s 4.1. But the Eagles only ran 47 plays in the entire game. The Commanders ran 81.
That’s because the Eagles turned the ball over four times. One was a Jalen Hurts interception. The other three were fumbles by three different pass receivers.
Washington has a hard-hitting secondary. The likes of Kamren Curl, Darrick Forrest, and Percy Butler will need to close fast on Philadelphia's talented receivers and try to knock balls loose, as they did last season.
And it goes without saying that quarterback Sam Howell and running back Antonio Gibson will have to be more careful with the ball. It is very difficult to imagine Washington beating Philadelphia without winning the turnover battle by at least two take-aways.
Commanders must run the football
In last year’s game, the Washington Commanders did not run the ball well. No running back averaged more than 3.3 yards-per-carry and as a team, they only managed 3.1 for the game. The longest run was 11 yards.
But they kept running.
Washington ran the ball on 49 of their 78 snaps, excluding kneel-downs. For those of you who are mathematically challenged, that’s 63 percent of the plays. And Washington continually put themselves in third-and-short situations so that they could continue to pound the ball for first downs.
On the Commanders' first touchdown drive, both Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson converted short third down runs, before the latter took it in from one-yard out.
That set the tone in the first half when Washington had drives of 13, 12, 16, and eight plays, taking a 20-14 lead into the halftime. Their first drive of the second half was 14 plays, nine of which were runs.
In the middle of that drive, Taylor Heinicke hit Terry McLaurin for a huge play down the right sideline. It was set up by a play-action fake to Robinson, and then the wideout simply outran the Philadelphia Eagles' best cornerback Darius Slay.
I would expect to see the Commanders go with a lot of heavy packages to help out their struggling offensive line. Then, ideally, Eric Bieniemy will pick and choose when to spread things out and try to hit the Eagles with some razzle-dazzle.
But it only works if Washington commits to the run.
You are right to be concerned about Washington’s offensive line going up against the Eagles' front seven. But if you are looking for a silver lining, here is a stat to hang your hopes on. Of the opposition's seven leading tacklers in last year’s game, five of them no longer play for Philadelphia.
That includes Javon Hargrave, T.J. Edwards, Kyzir White, and safeties Marcus Epps and C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Those players combined for almost half of Philadelphia's solo tackles against the Commanders during the 2022 game at Lincoln Financial Field.
Philadelphia has replaced Hargrave, who had 13 combined tackles last year - stunning for a defensive tackle - with the massive Jordan Davis. But at linebacker and safety, plenty of questions remain.
Washington needs to exploit that if they hope to keep control of the ball, and of the game.
Commanders must be disciplined
The Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders both fall in the upper middle of the league in terms of penalties. That means both teams are reasonably well-disciplined.
In the game last year, Washington played a fairly typical game, accruing five penalties. But Philadelphia was undisciplined. They had seven penalties in addition to their four turnovers.
The Commanders cannot do much about causing the Eagles to commit fouls. However, they can limit their own, and win the penalty battle.
On a crucial third down play with just under two minutes remaining in last year’s game, Philadelphia's final penalty essentially sealed the outcome. Washington was up by five points. Taylor Heinicke scrambled around a bit, and finding no one open, wisely gave himself up in order to keep the clock running.
Eagles edge rusher Brandon Graham bumped him after he was down. It wasn’t a big hit, but it was late enough to draw a flag. Washington was essentially able to run the clock out from that point, punting back with just five seconds left.
Washington will have to play its best game of the season to replicate last year’s result. The encouraging thing is that they didn’t really do anything unexpected last year. Their offensive line didn’t suddenly play a brilliant game. They weren’t explosive. They didn’t play a perfect game.
But they played it smart and conservative despite falling behind early, and they let the Eagles make mistakes.
This week, the big players will have to step up - which means the defensive line will have to harass Jalen Hurts and contain his running. The defensive backs will have to keep the dynamic pass-catchers in check. The Commanders' receivers will need a couple of splash plays downfield. Those things are more or less a given for this team to be successful regardless of the opponent.
If they are able to do that, and to play a smart game like they did last November, there’s no reason they shouldn’t be able to rebound from their dismal effort against the Buffalo Bills and give one of the league’s best teams a good battle.
Who knows, with a few good bounces, they might even shock the world. It has happened before.