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Commanders key numbers: Reality check against the Bills in Week 3

The numbers didn't work in the Commanders' favor this week.
Hirdesh Matta
Hirdesh Matta

Riggo's Rag

Sam Howell / Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

What were the key numbers behind a torrid defeat for the Washington Commanders against the Buffalo Bills in Week 3 at FedEx Field?

The hype train was getting out of control with the Washington Commanders. After two come-from-behind wins against the Arizona Cardinals and Denver Broncos for their first 2-0 start since 2011, hope sprung eternal, but Week 3 provided a reality check.

Pump the brakes, this team isn't ready to compete against the big dogs just yet.

Earlier in the week, Ron Rivera had said Week 3 was a good opportunity to see where the team stands via the Commanders website.

""This is a very good football team. This is one of the AFC standards, so it's going to be a great opportunity for us to measure up.""
Ron Rivera via Commanders.com

I think the Commanders are going to need a bigger ruler - a yardstick might not be enough. They might need to use mile markers. After Sunday's debacle, it's clear to see that Washington still has a long way to go before they measure up with the leading contenders.

Yes, it was commendable that the team beat the Cardinals. But seeing the New York Giants come back and win after being down 20-0 against Arizona makes it a little less special. And yes, I do know they beat the Cowboys this week.

Yes, it's great that the Commanders came back and beat the Broncos, but after seeing them get trampled 70-20 by the Miami Dolphins and former Washington assistant Mike McDaniel, it makes that win a little less special.

Side note, how many good assistants did we let get away? After losses like this, it stings even more.

Washington has been plagued by the same flaws throughout Rivera's tenure. That progression and growth the team has been hoping for still seems just as elusive as it did when he took charge.

The slow starts have continued. The inability to get points in the red zone, yup, still got that. The defense getting gashed for big plays, that's there too. If you wanted a microcosm of all the issues this team has had, it was on full display versus the Bills.

Does that mean all hope is lost? Nope.

The Commanders still have 14 more games this season. We've seen flashes from Eric Bieniemy's offense. We have seen our front four harass offensive lines. We've seen Sam Howell make throws no quarterback in recent memory has made for this team.

There will be struggles, but these are growing pains. And, as Howell said after the game, the sun will come up tomorrow.

Let's get into the key numbers from Week 3's reality check against the Bills.

Highs: Commanders RB Brian Robinson Jr. continues to shine

7: Brian Robinson Jr. averaged seven yards per carry against the Buffalo Bills and had a 23-yard run after having a 27-yard gain last week. The problem? He only got 10 carries.

On the season, Robinson has averaged 4.6 yards per carry. But the Washington Commanders haven't been utilizing the run game much in first halves.

Even Robinson wondered why the team didn't stick with the running attack.

6: Over the first three quarters, the defense only allowed six points off turnovers. Now ordinarily, this wouldn't be an accomplishment, but there weren't too many highs in today's contest.

After Sam Howell's first interception, the Commanders' defense forced the Bills to punt. Then, after the turnover on downs, they held Buffalo to a field goal.

Howell's second interception was at Washington's 33. Despite being given a short field, the defense held the Bills to three points on that drive.

On Howell's third pick of the game, the defense intercepted it back. The fourth quarter is when it all came crashing down.

15: After struggling with penalties the first two weeks of the season and being the sixth-most penalized team in the league, the Commanders only had two infringements for 15 yards on Sunday. Some progress is better than none, right?

Lows: Commanders turnovers galore

5: The Washington Commanders had five turnovers, not including an additional turnover on downs at their two-yard line. Sam Howell had a forgettable game, throwing four interceptions, including one directly to the defender that was returned for a pick-six.

Yes, it was sloppy, but don't write off Howell after only his fourth start.

Josh Allen threw two interceptions and was sacked seven times in a 22-0 shutout during his third career start. Washington's iconic Pro Football Hall of Famer Sammy Baugh even threw six picks in a game once.

It happens, learn from it and move on. How he responds next week at the Philadelphia Eagles will show more about him as a player than his performance versus the Buffalo Bills.

11: The metric keeps getting worse. The Commanders' defense gave up 11 explosive plays to the Bills on Sunday. The defense gave up passes of 35, 30, 30, and 20 yards, and rushes of 34, 23, 13, 10, 10, and 10 yards, while special teams allowed a 23-yard punt return.

19: Howell has now been sacked 19 times in the first three weeks of the season. The Bills sacked the signal-caller no fewer than nine times on Sunday.

Howell is the most-sacked quarterback this season and is on track to be the most-sacked in NFL history. The current record is 76 sacks across 16 games in 2022, held by David Carr.

How many times was he sacked in his first three games? 19! Not the best company to be in.

At this rate, Howell might not be able to withstand 17 games. Teams are pressuring him because they know the Commanders have one of the worst offensive lines in the league and they know he holds onto the ball too long.

26: The Commanders have continued their slow starts on offense and have been outscored by 26 points in the first half through the opening three games. The team entered halftime down 16-0 against the Bills.

Additionally, the Commanders only scored seven points across three contests on their first drive of each half. Those six ended in a punt, punt, missed field goal, touchdown, interception, and another interception.

60%: After being the best third-down defense last season and coming into the game with the longest active streak of holding opponents to less than five third-down conversations in a game (9), it all came to an end on Sunday.

The Commanders allowed the Bills to convert on 60 percent of their third downs (9/15). This included conversions of 10, 8, 8, and 7 yards.

59:14: The Commanders took 59 minutes and 14 seconds of game time to score their first points, narrowly avoiding the worst shutout loss since 2001.

Other Commanders tidbits from Week 3

The Washington Commanders offense has put too much pressure on Sam Howell's shoulders with 65 percent of the play-calling being passing concepts. Eric Bieniemy needs to realize that his signal-caller isn't Patrick Mahomes and needs to utilize the run game more efficiently in the first half.

In Week 1, the pass-to-run ratio was 28:10 in the first half and 9:18 in the second half. In Week 2, it was 33:7 in the first half and 10:16 in the second half.

Against the Buffalo Bills, it was 16:6 in the first half, and 22:7 in the second half. That's too wide of a margin, although it's also worth remembering that the Commanders got themselves into an early hole.

Across the first half, the Commanders have run a pass play 77 percent of the time. Given the offensive line woes and Howell's propensity to hold on to the football for way too long, the team isn't doing its best to set him up for success.

Week 3 was one to forget for the entire team. But how the Commanders respond next week in a tough Philadelphia Eagles atmosphere at Lincoln Financial Field will give us a clearer indication if this team is as resilient as they showed during their two comeback wins.

Hirdesh Matta

Hirdesh Matta

Hirdesh Matta is an NFL writer for Riggo’s Rag, covering the Washington Commanders. He has previous experience working as a credentialed sports writer for the Washington Wizards and Maryland Terrapins, with multiple years in sports journalism. Hirdesh is the author of two sports related children’s picture books, including Tommy the G.O.A.T. and Nat Your Average Underdog Story. He has also been featured on 910 The Fan’s radio broadcast to share insights on the Commanders.