3 Best Prop Bets for Commanders vs NY Giants in Week 13
By Jerry Trotta
The Washington Commanders have everything to play for in Week 13. While their playoff hopes won’t be crushed with a loss to the New York Giants, a win in East Rutherford would put them in a great position with four games remaining.
The Commanders could be without some key players in the game, including cornerback Benjamin St-Juste and starting guard Trai Turner, but Washington is favored for a reason. They’re the hottest team in the NFL over the last seven weeks, and have been dominating time of possession thanks to their run-first identity.
We don’t need to sell you on this game. It’s a battle between two playoff hopefuls, and two current holders of Wild Card spots in the NFC.
For any fans who want to add a little incentive for this NFC East showdown, we’ve got some prop bets that are tough to pass up.
3 Best Prop Bets for Commanders vs NY Giants
3. Commanders to cover -2.5, and under 40.5 points (+232)
This game could truly go either way, but the Commanders are rolling right now, and the Giants have lost some of their magic that carried them to a 6-1 start. The fighting Brian Daboll’s have lost three of four, and their greatest strength — running the football — falls right into Washington’s hands as an elite run D.
The Commanders have won four straight road games, and we expect them to make it five on the bounce on Sunday. Winning by a field goal is hardly a tall ask, and the under’s are seemingly a weekly lock for games involving Washington given they’ve average close to 40 handoffs per game during this hot streak.
2. Saquon Barkley under 69.5 rushing yards (-115)
This prop doesn’t have great odds, but we’re all over it. For the season, the Commanders rank eighth in rushing yards allowed per game.
In November alone, only the Ravens, 49ers, Steelers, Buccaneers, Titans, Patriots and Rams allowed fewer rushing yards than Washington’s 338. Worth noting some of those squads had bye weeks, so the rankings are skewed.
More important, though, is the fact Barkley has regressed exponentially over the last five weeks. After averaging 103 rushing yards on 5.1 yards per attempt in the first six games, Barkley’s averaged 75 rushing yards on just 3.6 YPC. His volume makes the rushing prop reachable, but his avoided tackle rate and explosive run rate have dropped 11 percent and 4.6 percent, respectively since Week 5.
1. Jahan Dotson anytime TD scorer (+370)
Dotson’s target share has been non-existent since Washington adopted a run-oriented identity on offense. Since returning from a hamstring injury in Week 10, Dotson’s four targets in three games, and just two catches for 27 yards to show for it.
Now a ground-and-pound team, Washington has installed more two- and three-tight end looks, which has hurt Dotson’s playing time (83.2% snap share in the first four games compared to 56% after returning from injury). It also hasn’t helped Dotson is playing with a new quarterback to when the season started.
Despite that, the 2022 first-round pick is lethal in the red zone with his ability to beat man coverage, and we like him to end his scoring drought with a touchdown against the G-Men on Sunday. With so much fuss being made about his lack of usage, you just know he’s going to make an impact in this game.
Having scored against the Cowboys in Week 4, Dotson knows a thing or two about delivering against Washington’s rivals.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
