3 Best Prop Bets for Commanders vs Texans in Week 11

2. Commanders to cover -3 and under 40.5 points scored (+226)

This same game parlay, courtesy of FanDuel, feels like easy money. The Commanders only being favored by a field goal is a huge win. If the spread was 3.5 or 4, we’d be more hesitant to hammer this bet. But a field goal? If Washington can’t beat the one-win Texans by three points, we have bigger things to worry about. A win is ultimately all that matters, obviously, but a -3 spread is hardly a tall ask.

As for the over/under of 40.5, the Commanders defense has been balling over the last five weeks. During that span, Jack Del Rio’s unit ranks third in points allowed and sixth in total yards. They allowed a combined 41 points to the Vikings and Eagles, who have star playmakers everywhere, and limited Justin Fields — now the NFL’s hottest quarterback — to just 7 points and just 190 passing yards in Week 5.

Now, they play a Texans offense that’s sputtering. In nine games, Houston ranks 29th in both points scored and total yards per game.

As long as Washington contains rookie running back Dameon Pierce and forces Davis Mills, who has the second-most interceptions in the NFL this season with nine, to beat them with his arm, the Commanders should win this game convincingly while allowing a minimal point total.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.