3 reasons to be concerned about the Commanders in 2022

2. The Carson Wentz experience

Don’t misconstrue this: the addition of Carson Wentz has every reason to be a positive one for the Commanders. To not rehash why he is an upgrade over Heinicke too much, let’s take this one stat: on passes over 20 yards last season, Wentz went 25/59 for 842 yards, 7 TDs, and 3 INTs, with 15 big-time throws. His PFF grade on deep throws was an elite 90.7.

Conversely, Taylor Heinicke went 22/67 for 665 yards, 8 TDs and 8 INTs. Heinicke had 12 turnover-worthy plays on deep passes, and Wentz had just three on deep passes in 2021. So, it is pretty clear how Wentz is expected to transform Turner’s offense. He will unlock other portions of the playbook due to his arm strength and physical capabilities.

However, there is still the elephant in the room. The Commanders will be Wentz’s third team in three years. Sure, there are viable reasons or excuses to ease the team’s (and fans’) concerns. The Eagles could’ve built around Wentz better, especially at wide receiver, and drafting Jalen Hurts did nothing to help his confidence.

With Jim Irsay taking every opportunity to bash Wentz, while Chris Ballard and Frank Reich are more amicable, it seems that may have ultimately been a front office decision. One that stemmed from Wentz’s unwillingness to get the COVID-19 vaccination and subsequently testing positive before the final stretch and then falling on his face against Jacksonville.

Whatever the case may be, Wentz will still be on his third team in as many years. The Colts, a year after giving up a first-round pick for him, were okay flailing in the wind with no QB and trading Wentz.

So what is the hold-up with Wentz? First off, Wentz knows the physical tools he has. In 2019 Benjamin Solak, now a writer for the Ringer, wrote a piece on Wentz titled “The Quarterback who never says Die,” for SB Nation’s Eagles site, Bleeding Green Nation.

That was still when Wentz was still viewed as the answer at QB for the Eagles. Yet, he still had the propensity to always seek out the big play. He does his signature ducking out of the way of pressure, which he is exceptional at, as he escapes the collapsing pocket, before chucking a “YOLO” ball deep down the field. While, when it works, it can be jaw-droppingly awesome to watch, many times the results are, to put it nicely, lackluster.

For starters, it makes Wentz more susceptible to injuries. In his career, he has suffered a torn ACL, a back injury the year after, a concussion that knocked him out of a playoff game as he attempted to dive for a first down, spraining both ankles in 2021, and most likely a number of other unreported injuries.

While Wentz hasn’t missed a start due to injury since 2018, he still has been gutting it out recently. And it hinders his performance. Availability, especially healthy availability, is sometimes a player’s best trait. Especially the quarterback the Commanders just invested two mid-round picks in and has a $28M cap hit in 2022.

It has affected Wentz’s play on the field as well. His tendency to have overconfidence in his physical abilities has nearly thrown his mechanics to the wayside. He has the tendency to let his front hip fly open, leading to him missing high and air-maling his target.

The problem has resurfaced in training camp too. Just go search on Twitter and you will see a video of a Carson Wentz airmailed throw at training camp.

While a play in the early stages of training camp should be taken with the smallest grain of salt, it is something to monitor. Wentz’s mechanics haven’t been good over the past two seasons. It is no coincidence that he finished 32nd in CPOE in 2020, and 26th in 2021.

Wentz is most efficient when the ball is getting out quick to his playmakers, or he is allowed to use his howitzer deep down the field.

The intermediate areas of the field are where he needs the most work though. In 2021, Wentz had 13 total turnover-worthy throws. 7 came on passes 11-19 yards down the field. Piecing together Wentz’s propensity to want to push the ball down the field, with his scattershot accuracy and it is not hard to draw correlations to why this occurs.

https://twitter.com/Primeroydiez/status/1454909093840400385

Let’s take the backbreaking interception against the Titans in overtime last year. He throws a pass into triple coverage on a deep out, about 15-20 yards down the field. Standing five yards in front of him is a wide-open Jonathan Taylor who could’ve easily scampered for the first down.

Instead, Wentz tries to thread the needle and throws an interception that all but sealed Indy’s fate in a crucial inter-divisional matchup. It is the exact type of mistake that the quarterback cannot make. It is sometimes the difference between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs.

While Wentz certainly has not had ideal circumstances in terms of weaponry and Indy’s offensive line play in 2021, he is not blameless. His mechanics could use some tweaking and he needs to be more aware on the field.

The 29-year-old needs to know when to let a play die. To either hit the check down, take the sack for no gain after evading pressure, or throw the ball away. When Wentz gets himself into the most trouble is when he is trying to always make the big play.

The Commanders have a starting caliber quarterback for the first time in the Ron Rivera era. His inclination to always shoot for the big play, however, could get Washington in trouble in 2022.

Commanders fans should enter 2022 with their eyes wide open with Carson Wentz. He is a potential short-term answer but his tendency to shoot himself in the foot may make it difficult for the team to commit to him long-term.