Week 17 Reality Checks: Washington vs Eagles

The Washington Football Team wasn’t as good as fans wanted to believe when they rattled off four straight wins in the middle of the season, and they aren’t as bad as fans want to believe coming off three straight NFC East losses filled with embarrassing stats. The truth lies somewhere in the middle.

And as I’ve been doing for several seasons now, I’m here to lay down some Reality about the Washington Football Team. Heading into the final two games of this tumultuous second season of Ron Rivera’s tenure as the Grand Poobah of all things Washington Football, there are certainly a lot of data points to consider when seeking to assess the status of the WFT. And while many of those data points are actually coming from off-the-field, I’ll hold commentary about those matters until the season is completed. Rivera thinks he knows what the loss to Dallas was:

Washington Football Team Week 17 Reality Checks

The Reality Is, one game almost never tells all you need to discern an overall direction, but if ever a game COULD, a 56-14 loss on national television to your hated rival certainly would be a candidate.

This, by no means, is a good, contending team. But it might be on the right path…or it could be headed back to another stop along the bottomless abyss Daniel Snyder has been constructing since 1999.

Frankly, the next two games, to me, will tell more about the “direction” Ron has this team going. Two ugly losses, and it will be difficult to derive meaningful positives about the changes Rivera has implemented. Two wins and it wouldn’t be hard to make the argument that the team is trending, albeit slowly, in the direction fans should be excited about.

For now, heading into a fascinating matchup at home against Philadelphia on Sunday, let’s just take a look at the reality of the Burgundy and Gold football team as it currently stands and some keys to watch for on Sunday as it relates to this season and the overall direction of the team.

5. The Reality Is, Jack Del Rio may be coaching for his job.

There have been zero indications of a rift between Rivera and Del Rio, but let’s be honest…this defense came in with extremely high expectations and has, with rare exception, been horrifyingly bad…like Joe Barry and the last few years of Jim Haslett bad.

Some have made and will continue to make the excuse that his best players didn’t follow his scheme. Others will argue that the offense didn’t hold up their end of the time-of-possession battle. But the bottom line is this: unmet expectations get coaches fired and players cut. If Haslett doesn’t preside over a meaningfully improved defensive performance against Philadelphia and New York, I would be surprised if Rivera doesn’t replace him in the offseason.

Coordinators are supposed to develop young players and get the most out of their stars. Del Rio has failed on both fronts this season. Outside of Jonathan Allen and Cole Holcomb, it would be hard to name another defender who meaningfully improved over last season, while many seemingly regressed (based on stats and the eye test)…that’s a problem.

In these final two weeks, I’ll be looking for Del Rio to get creative in using the quality pieces he has available to him. In particular, this week against the Eagles, I’d look for him to mix up his plan and actually instruct his ends to take Hurts on all zone-read plays, rather than the backs, and to bring safety blitzes to neutralize the play-action game a bit.

4. The Reality Is, the Eagles are due for regression.

The Reality Is, Philadelphia has played one of the easiest schedules in the entire NFL this season. They’ve also gotten the benefit of extra rest at key points and have ridden a stable of mediocre backs to the highest rushing totals in the league.

Washington weirdly didn’t sell out to stop the run in their first bout with Philly this season. Expect them to do so on Sunday.  The Eagles aren’t a playoff-quality roster and it’s unlikely they hold on to that 7th seed in the NFC without continued out-kicking of their coverage from an offensive standpoint.

If Washington isn’t able to contribute to a “right-sizing” of the Philadelphia running attack, the resiliency and stability of the football culture Ron Rivera has been seeking to build might reasonably be questioned. Expect improvement from Washington in this area. Expect Kam Curl to help lock down Dallas Goedert and force Jalen Hurts into something closer to his 62% season-average passing rather than the 76% he achieved last time these teams met. Expect Washington’s defense to make Philadelphia look a little more like what they are this week: a decent offensive team with a lot of holes.

3. The Reality Is, football is about more than just stats and measurables.

Don’t be that fan that says football players should “just play the game”…they they shouldn’t be affected by outside noise or the stuff of real life that impacts the rest of us. A week ago, this team lost one of their captains to a season-ending car crash in which he was the driver and his girlfriend was killed. Two teammates were there at the scene and watched it happen.

Earlier this week, one of their defensive stars go news that his brother was shot and killed near Richmond. That kind of tragedy cannot and should not be ignored or downplayed by the players and coaches on the team. If those tragedies aren’t weighing on them, that would be concerning on a human level…and any fan who expects every player and coach to be able to simply go about business as usual has their priorities out of whack.

That said, the ability to perform well in spite of difficult distractions is a key characteristic of a quality team. If the team is able to put together a disciplined and focused performance on Sunday in spite of the difficulty of their circumstances the last couple of weeks, it will indicate a measure of mental fortitude necessary for long-term success. Look for the number of pre-snap penalties and obvious assignment busts apparent in this game to get a feel for how locked-in they are.

2. The Reality Is, there are different kinds of losing seasons.

Though relatively small, Washington does still have an outside chance at making the playoffs. If they manage to win on Sunday and follow that up with a win against New York next week, they don’t need ALL that many other things to go their way to make the playoffs.

If things break their way, it would be yet another sub-.500 playoff appearance for Rivera (the third of his career). Even if the other factors don’t work out, and 8-9 finish in a season where their starting quarterback played under two quarters and they played three games dramatically impacted by Covid protocols would be relatively easy to sell as “progress”.

A 6-10 or even 7-11 game which includes a 2-4  or 1-5 division record really can’t be spun positively by anyone other than those who thought that even the Jim Zorn era was loads of fun. These final two games matter. A lot. I’ll be watching to see if Rivera has his team and staff convinced of that truth.

1. The Reality Is, Washington doesn’t have a long-term answer at quarterback.

In only the rarest of situations has an NFL franchise been able to win a Super Bowl without a long-term franchise quarterback in place. In no situation since Joe Gibbs (only the greatest football coach of all time) has a franchise been able to complete multiple Super Bowl runs with different non-franchise, non-long-term quarterbacks. And I’ve got news for you…Joe Jackson Gibbs ain’t walking back through that door…so if Washington doesn’t land a long-term answer at QB this offseason, nothing that happens these final two weeks of this season will have any lasting impact on the organization.

The last two starts have cleared out all but the family-level members of the “Heinicke is the answer” hive. Kyle Allen can’t even get a look from this coaching staff when the other backup on the roster is struggling mightily. It’s obvious this organization believes they need to address the quarterback situation once and for all this offseason.. So what does that mean for these final two games of the season? Weirdly, it means they may stick with Taylor Heinicke (believing he’s the more viable long-term back-up) even though Kyle Allen may have a better chance to operate effectively with the patchwork offensive line and limited offensive weapons available at this point in the season.

Allen has a bigger arm, more height, and the ability to make tough throws from the pocket. Heinicke seems to have the edge in intangibles and the support of the roster. He also is the more gifted scrambler. However, he appears to have hit the proverbial “rookie wall”. He’s suited to a high-end backup and spot-start role. Allen doesn’t seem to have quite as much of the “clutch” gene and is equally prone to a big mistake, but likely won’t get action unless Heinicke stumbles out of the gate against Philly.

Look for clues about who may or may not be back next season in a place-holder or backup role as you observe how Rivera handles his quarterbacks this week and next.  At the end of the day, I think Washington ends up fighting hard for Rivera and Heinicke plays much better this week than he did in his last two starts.

And yet, without so many key players (including Chase Young, Landon Collins, Sam Cosmi, and even Tress Way), I think they will fall short against a healthier and more confident Philadelphia team. Washington brings a lot of fight, but ends up losing 24-20.