Week 16 Reality Checks – Washington at Dallas

Two losses ago, the Washington Football Team was in sixth place in the NFC and poised to make a run into the playoffs. Then Covid-19 began to strike. Then the first half against Dallas happened. Then Covid-19 hit harder. Then a depleted team with  an emergency QB got manhandled in Philly, and Washington now finds itself with the slimmest of remaining hopes to salvage their season.

It’s never good when you’re 10.5-pt underdogs in a must-win game on the road. It’s also never good to be the team playing less than half of your original starting offensive lineup against your rivals. Likely to be missing from the “intended” starting 11 for the season offensively when they suit up in Dallas the day after Christmas? QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, WR Curtis Samuel, C Chase Roullier, RG Brandon Scherff, RB JD McKissic, RB Antonio Gibson, TE Logan Thomas. Add to that the triage unit the defense has been, and it’s not hard to figure out how this team is sitting at 6-8 with single-digit odds of rebounding back into the playoffs.

Washington Football Team Week 16 Reality Checks

There is nothing to suggest that Washington has what it takes to beat Dallas in this game. They were undermanned against Dallas when they were 100% healthy. They are nowhere near that now. If Washington manages to pull out a win in Dallas on Sunday, it will be one of the most improbable victories this rivalry has seen.

What’s it going to take? For one, it’s going to take following Jon Allen’s example and not making any excuses.

With that in mind, this week’s Reality Checks take the form of five keys to victory for the Burgundy and Gold.

5. The Reality Is, Washington has to dig deep and out-hit Dallas on Sunday.

Even in the process of losing to Dallas two weeks ago, it was clear that Washington missed opportunities to bully Dallas. Dallas is a finesse team at this point in their evolution. Washington didn’t take their speed and their quickness away from them by simply hitting them in the mouth. If Washington is going to win on Sunday night, they are going to have to out-physical the Cowboys on both sides of the ball.

4. The Reality Is, it’s time to manufacture touches for Terry McLaurin.

Washington has largely allowed defensive scheme to take Terry McLaurin out of the last few games. They’ve taken advantage of coverages shaded toward McLaurin to get easier yardage elsewhere. But that cannot be the solution this week. It’s time to feed Terry McLaurin and let him carry you to a victory. If you’re going to end up being swept by Dallas this season, don’t let it happen with Terry being used mostly as a decoy. Get the ball in his hands and let him make some plays.

3. The Reality Is, it’s Patterson and Williams time.

Antonio Gibson was clearly hindered by his toe after the first quarter on Sunday. And yet, this coaching staff has been hesitant to give meaningful carries to Jaret Patterson and Johnathan Williams.

And yet, in the limited chances they’ve gotten, both have performed admirably. A turf toe-nursing Gibson doesn’t have the punch or big-play ability that Washington will inevitably need in this difficult rematch. Washington needs to give the young (and more importantly, healthy) RBs a chance to play the hero in Dallas.

Even in Gibson is cleared to play on Sunday, I’d like to see Washington use him very sparingly, but stay totally committed to the running game in the persons of Patterson and Williams.

2. The Reality Is, Washington needs to empty their bag of tricks in this game.

Rivera needs to send his team a message by authorizing his coordinators to dig deep into the playbook, especially on special teams and offense. Given the necessity of getting this win and the expected disparity in talent between this opponent and Washington’s next two, this is the game to pull out all the stops. Look for a fake kick, an early onside attempt, a flea flicker, a double-reverse, or a RB pass in this game as Washington scratches a claws to remain alive in the playoff hunt.

In addition to trick plays, Washington must win the turnover and penalties battle. Washington cannot afford to give Dallas any more edge than they already have coming into this contest.

1. The Reality Is, Washington needs to get lucky and show some heart.

There have been glimpses of heart shown in the last two games. Washington came out with some fire against Philly, but it quickly faded, replaced by a pathetic defensive showing. Against Dallas, after an abysmal first half, Washington continued to fight and nearly made things very interesting late in the 4th quarter.  I was out of my seat, for sure.

But in neither game, did they bring the necessary intensity for 4 quarters to succeed against division rivals who have something beyond pride to play for. Washington simply cannot afford any let-downs in intensity on Sunday. They can’t afford dumb mistakes. They can’t afford to get conservative or passive. They have to take the game to Dallas from the first kickoff to the final whistle.

In order to do that effectively, they’re going to need to get some combination of at least 3 of these 5 key missing cogs:

-Kam Curl

-Brandon Scherff

-Cole Holcomb

-Landon Collins

-Kendall Fuller

Debate can be had about which of these players is most valuable or necessary, but it cannot be understated how much they are needed by this team at this moment. If Washington is without 3 or 4 of these players on Sunday, I just don’t give them much of a chance to pull off a miracle. Even with them, I don’t expect a win…but I do expect a cover. Since the odds of getting a quorum of them back are pretty slim, I’m picking Dallas 27, Washington 16.