Week 14 Reality Checks: Dallas at Washington

We made it, Washington Football Team fans. We made it to December with our team primed to play meaningful games all month. After a 2-6 start to the season, it was fair to wonder if Washington would play a meaningful game against their arch-rival Dallas Cowboys this year.

The NFL took a big risk pushing all of Washington’s matchups against Dallas and Philly to December. Without a remarkable run over the last four weeks, those games might have been real duds. But, with a combination of improved defense, timely offensive production, clutch kicking and a sprinkling of good luck, Washington is now a stone’s throw from the playoffs. (Sorry, the dad in me couldn’t resist that one.)

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The surprising four-game winning streak has guaranteed Washington meaningful games over the next few weeks. The question is, how can the team go about successfully navigating the “round robin” head coach Ron Rivera has been talking about for months. First up, “We Want Dallas”. What will it take to pull within one game of the division leader this Sunday? Let’s jump into our Dallas Week Reality Checks:

Washington Football Team Week 14 Reality Checks

5. The Reality Is, Terry McLaurin has to break back out.

Early in the season, McLaurin was about the only member of Washington’s offense that was producing. He once again reminded the league that he was much more valuable than his draft position indicated. And then teams started rolling more coverage his way, and his opportunities began to dry up.

Combine that with Washington’s newfound commitment to the running game, and McLaurin’s production has dropped off dramatically, with under 60 yards in four of his last five games. After losing Logan Thomas again, Washington needs to find ways to feed McLaurin and get him in single coverage.

The Cowboys’ secondary has shown a penchant to commit pass interference penalties in man coverage, so Scott Turner needs to scheme up some single coverage opportunities for McLaurin and take some big chunk play-action shots to him. The best receivers in the league benefit from their coordinators finding ways to feed them. McLaurin has earned that with his contested catch rate and his impeccable route running and hustle.

It’s time for a signature Scary Terry game.

4. The Reality Is, Antonio Gibson is due for a home run.

In his two games against Dallas last season, Antonio Gibson rushed 40 times for 243 yards and four touchdowns, capped off by his classic wave on Thanksgiving Day.

Gibson has been an absolute workhorse during Washington’s winning streak, but his long rush during that time has been only 22 yards, and he’s been kept out of the end zone the last three weeks. Gibson is due to pop a long one for a score, and I think it’s likely he rises to the hype of Dallas Week to do just that. Expect another 20+ carries and at least one long score this week.

3. The Reality Is, the trenches will be where this game is won.

I’m nearly certain the original Hogs are less than pleased when Washington fans are quick to dub more recent iterations of Washington’s offensive line “Hogs 2.0” or something similar. There truly may never be an offensive line as consistent, as dominant, or as successful as that storied group, so you can’t blame them if they don’t think this current group, or any group since ’91 deserves the moniker.

But, if you take it as simply shorthand for an OL group that is dominating in Washington, then this current group qualifies. Even with all the moving parts throughout the season, the unit has continued to impress.

To a lesser extent, the defensive line has held up their end of the bargain as well. Prior to this win streak, the defensive line was not playing well. But in the last four games, with expectations brought down closer to reality, the DL has delivered four straight impressive performances. Jon Allen has been consistently dominant all season. And the rest of the unit is catching their stride.

On the season, Washington is in the top three of overall “Trenches” team, between their offensive and defensive line win-rates.

For the winning to continue, their lines have to continue performing at this level.

2. The Reality Is, this Cowboys defense is ripe for misdirection.

Micah Parsons is the Defensive Rookie of the Year on the merits of his hustle and motor. Trevon Diggs leads the league in interceptions based on his skill as a ballhawk. Demarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory are extremely aggressive defensive ends. Given the nature and personality and skillsets present on this Dallas defense, Scott Turner should utilize a ton of misdirection in his play calling on Sunday.

Look for him to get into his bag of tricks for a throwback, a flea-flicker, a double reverse, or something along those lines sometime on Sunday. If he’s smart, he’ll also use a good amount of zone read action to put Dallas’ aggressive and speedy defensive ends into conflict.

1. The Reality Is, it’s all there for the taking.

With the home stretch of Dallas-Philly-Dallas-Philly-New York, it doesn’t take too much in-depth analysis to see how a 6-6 Washington team is positioned well for a late-season surge into the playoffs.

Are they increasingly dinged up? Yep. Are they facing a rest deficit in each of the next two weeks after dealing with the same last week? Yep. Are they going to be favored any of the next three weeks? Not likely. But the hurdles they face are certainly manageable. Rivera is right in communicating that everything they hoped and prepared to do this season is right in front of them and it’s up to them to capitalize.

Some personal things on the line over the next 5 weeks?

• Taylor Heinicke could vault himself into the 2022 starting roll if he balls out and leads this team to the playoffs.
• Jon Allen, Ereck Flowers, Terry McLaurin, DeAndre Carter, Kam Curl, and Antonio Gibson could secure spots in the Pro Bowl with strong personal and team finishes.
• Brian Johnson could nail down the spot as the team’s kicker if he contributes to a late run with consistent kicking.

But every one of those guys would tell you that what they care about most is the team’s opportunity to surge into the playoffs and make a run. And that accomplishment…having built a roster of guys who have fought back from 2-6, stayed together, and positioned themselves for a meaningful December and beyond…that’s an accomplishment that Rivera and Washington fans should be proud of…but The Reality Is, it won’t be much remembered or celebrated if they don’t capitalize.

Something about this team is different, though. Something about their makeup makes me believe they have that run in them much more than I have in previous years. It’s usually at about this point where I get let down.

But with cautious optimism, I’m predicting a win on Sunday to ensure the rest of the season holds a ton of meaning. Washington pulls of a tight win, 27-23. Whatever the score, as long as they #BeatDallas, the sky’s the limit.