Week 12 Reality Checks: Washington vs Seattle

For decades, as a Washington Football fan, my rooting interests have largely (and sadly) hinged on two priorities: beat Dallas, and play meaningful games in December. Things like division titles and playoff wins, let alone Super Bowls, have felt far beyond the reach of reasonable expectations for the entirety of my adult life.

Some might call that a loser’s mentality. But the Reality Is, playing the spoiler to the overhyped Cowboys and chasing the occasional late-season winning streak to the playoffs has kept me locked in on this franchise in spite of the endless stream of off-field fiascos that have driven many so-called fans away.

After an extremely disappointing 2-6 start to this season, it seemed that all I’d have left to root for this year would be for the Burgundy and Gold to find a way to spoil December for Jerry Jones. But coming off the bye, the Washington Football Team have put together their best two games of the season back-to-back, with contributions across the entire roster, and are now in position to make the last 7 games of the season mean more than just playing spoiler.

With Seattle coming to town for a Monday night matchup many had chalked up as a loss before the season even began, the Washington Football Team is in position to demand some attention down the stretch of this season.

If Antonio Gibson can hold onto the ball and the defense can continue to make strides, this should be a winnable game. Let’s look at this season’s only Monday Night Football edition of Reality Checks.

5. The Reality Is, Kamren Curl makes this defense click.

Jonathan Allen has been the best defender for Washington this season. End of discussion. But it’s no coincidence that the defense’s overall improvement has coincided with the coaching staff finally making the decision to prioritize Kamren Curl‘s utilization over Landon Collins’. Using Curl to his strengths as a strong safety and matching him up against opposing tight ends, slot receivers, and running backs has allowed this team to simplify their coverage schemes and has put the rest of the secondary in positions to win. It’s also allowed Curl to make some of the most impactful plays of the season. His 4th down stop on a quick out to Christian McCaffrey was the play of the game, hands down. Put every safety in the NFL one-on-one against CMac on 4th and 3, and there may not be two other safeties who get that stop.

If Washington is going to handle Seattle on Monday Night, it will need another strong performance from Curl, especially in coverage of Seattle’s versatile screen game, to free McCain up to play single high to protect against the deep passing attack between Russell Wilson and his deep threats, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf.

4. The Reality Is, necessity is the mother of invention.

Jack Del Rio and Ron Rivera don’t have Chase Young or Montez Sweat at their disposal, but have managed to draw out the best two defensive performances from their squad these last two weeks. Casey Toohill and James Smith-Williams have done a nice job defending the run, creating pressure without losing the edge, and dropping in coverage to help disguise blitz packages.

On the offensive side of the ball, Scott Turner has called his two best games in Washington in the last two weeks. The rhythm, commitment to the run, balance, and playing to the strengths of the players available to him have been phenomenal. He’s maximized the talents of John Bates as a run blocker, DeAndre Carter with pre-snap motion, bunch formations, and option routes.

Ultimately, both of these trends go hand-in-hand. The ability of the offense to sustain drives has led to less snaps faced by the defense. The efficiency of the defense has led to more opportunities for the offense to play with a lead, which has contributed to the playbook getting opened up for Turner. Complementary football is more fun to watch than the alternative.

3. The Reality Is, depth wins games.

Taylor Heinicke, Jon Bates, DeAndre Carter, Tyler Larsen, Wes Schweitzer, Cornelius Lucas, James Smith-Williams, Troy Apke, Casey Toohill and Danny Johnson have all made significant contributions to the current winning streak (does two wins count as a streak?). The other thing they have in common? They started the season buried on the depth chart. But injuries have necessitated they log significant snaps with regularity. Without the quality depth that Ron Rivera and his coaches and scouting staff have built, these two games could not have possibly ended in wins. The quality depth that Washington now has is distinctly better than in recent memory. To have experienced the amount of injuries this team has this season and still be improving throughout the season is an impressive feat. Even if this season doesn’t result in a late-season playoff push, the performance of the backups should be encouraging to fans. Over the next two weeks, I’ll be keying in on the development of the team’s depth.

2. The Reality Is, Russell Wilson is still a problem.

Russell Wilson in is in the extremely unfamiliar territory of being on a bad team. He’s also coming back from finger surgery. It would be extremely foolish for Washington fans to assume that means this game is somehow going to be an easy one for the good guys. Russell Wilson is a ticking time bomb.

He’s too good to be held down all season. If Washington isn’t careful, they’ll go right back to being the Washington “Getrights”, allowing struggling teams to find their stride against them. Washington has to gameplan to both attack and contain Wilson, rather than taking the “force Wilson to beat us” approach that his performances thus far this season might tempt some to pursue.  Look for Russell to have a lot of success if Washington chooses to sit mostly in soft zones with limited pressure.

1. The Reality Is, the ceiling is the floor.

Taylor Heinicke has shown glimpses of the high-ceiling potential he has in his last two games. He’s managed, simultaneously, to avoid giving glimpses of the low floor that has kept him from getting more opportunities previously in his career. With Heinicke, it seems to be clear now that his ceiling will be determined more by his ability to raise the floor. His ceiling is plenty high to be a successful, “top half of the league” starter.

The questions remaining about him are all surrounding his floor. If he can continue to string together games that don’t show flashes of that low floor that plagued him early in this season and previously in his career, he very well could earn himself the opportunity to start another season in Washington and either mentor a rookie or even render said rookie obsolete.  The key to this scenario will not be about Heinicke proving he can make high-level plays…it will be him proving he can consistently avoid major mistakes. If he can’t, he might end up with a career much closer to Ryan Fitzpatrick’s.

As much as I love the Heinicke story as he’s progressed after taking over for Ryan Fitzpatrick, I’m not confident that he will be able to maintain this momentum. The jury is still out in the long run, but Washington needs too many things to go right to continue winning and giving him the opportunities to succeed at this level this season.

Logan Thomas and Curtis Samuel coming back sure wouldn’t hurt, but I have a bad feeling about how Heinicke will fare on Monday under the bright lights of a nationally televised game with the expectation levels suddenly raised. Look for a step back this week. Seattle wins this one 24-20.