Redskins outcome probabilities at No. 2 overall in the 2020 NFL Draft
By Ian Cummings
No. 4 – Trade Back
Probability: 1.5 percent
Some will be disappointed to see that the percentage for this option is so low. It was going to be higher at first, but as I thought it through, there were some factors that deflated the final probability.
The most glaring flaw in the Redskins theoretical master plan to trade back and gain a King’s ransom is this: 99 percent of times, the Redskins are trading back with a quarterback-needy team. That means, if you’re the Redskins, you’re likely trading back with Chase Young on the board. You’re passing up the opportunity to select him. And that simply doesn’t seem realistic.
Of course, if the Redskins staff becomes enamored with another prospect in the top ten, such as Simmons or one of the offensive tackles, they could decide that a top ten prospect plus a treasure trove of picks is worth more than Chase Young in a zero sum situation. I don’t disagree with them in that theoretical. But Young is a rare prospect at edge, and he’s the kind of prospect that Jack Del Rio and Ron Rivera have coveted in years past, when in a position such as this.
Additionally, for the Redskins to trade back, they’d have to have a trade partner. This sounds easy in a vacuum, but unless the Lions have a rumored interest in Tua Tagovailoa, there’s no reason for the Dolphins to trade up to No. 2 when they can trade with Detroit at No. 3. Another team like the Chargers or the Panthers could like a quarterback enough to trade up to No. 2 and block out the Dolphins, but in a quarterback class that has options at the top, a bidding war is far less likely.
Trading down is an attractive idea in theory for Washington, as it would give them a combination of positional freedom and raw quantity with their draft picks. But a lot has to happen for this possibility to become reality.