Value. It’s everything in the NFL Draft. And the Redskins need to find a way to come out of April with the most value they can get.
Value is the nucleus of the perpetual best player available vs. need argument. There’s a belief that teams should draft to fill their needs the quickest, but also a conflicting belief that teams must draft the best player available, in order to minimize the risk of negative talent externalities.
Neither philosophy carries complete truth, however. The best philosophy is a mixture. Teams should prioritize their greatest needs, but do so in a way that makes their options flexible enough so that talented players fall into their areas of concern.
The Washington Redskins, in 2019, are in luck. They have many areas of concern, and thus, they won’t have to worry about taking value over need. That said, they can still make a concerted effort to hone in on some of the draft’s most valuable prospects at No. 15, if they’re afforded the opportunity. Here are five players whose situational value would be too good to pass up.
Honorable Mentions: Byron Murphy, Noah Fant, Cody Ford, Devin Bush
Hear me out for a second.
You’re the Redskins. You have a very volatile tight end situation and a downright abysmal offensive situation. You have no playmakers. Your tight end blocking is subpar. Your offensive line blocking is decent when they’re healthy, which is almost never.
At this point, you could stand to just close your eyes and pick the most talented offensive player on the draft board. And positions be [explicit], if T.J. Hockenson is on the board at pick No. 15, he’s the most talented offensive player there.
Hockenson is a stellar blocker and a stellar receiving threat, and after the catch, he’s dangerous enough to become one of the premier tight ends in the NFL. I wrote as such in my draft profile of Hockenson, earlier this offseason.
"Hockenson’s physicality as a blocker transfers to his run-after-catch (RAC) ability. He can be very hard to bring down for defenders whom he outmatches in size. Hockenson isn’t the athlete that Noah Fant is, but that isn’t to say anything negative about Hockenson’s athleticism; he’s a solid athlete in his own right. His athleticism contributes to his impressive contact balance. Hockenson is a very real RAC threat, and after combining this with his other traits, it’s hard to imagine if there’s anything he can’t do."
Hockenson is one of the top overall prospects in the draft, and while his position isn’t valued as highly as it should be, his versatile array of talents speaks for itself. He could improve the Redskins offense from several facets, and at No. 15, he’s a value pick that has to be considered (Not committed to, just considered. Calm down, folks).
This one is particularly subjective; depending on who you like, there’s up to four quarterbacks you could put here. It’s not necessarily the player that matters here, but instead the prospect of a quarterback falling to pick No. 15, so that the Redskins wouldn’t have to trade up to acquire one.
Admittedly, the possibility of a quarterback falling is slim. The value of quarterbacks is always driven upward by needy teams. As we’ve seen in past years, teams tend to trade up for guys they like, when they fall far enough. Even in a class regarded as relatively weak, such as this, teams will convince themselves that a player can be the solution in Round 1.
But even so, the top-tier talent in the draft could push quarterbacks down, if teams opt to take other paths. Kyler Murray shouldn’t slip; he appears to be a top three pick, if not the No. 1 overall pick. After him, however, the situation grows hazy. Depending on how the draft plays out, one quarterback, out of Dwayne Haskins, Drew Lock, and Daniel Jones, could be on the board at No. 15. All it takes is a few teams to like someone else better.
With that said, out of those quarterbacks at No. 15, give me Drew Lock as the most valuable. Haskins might have the higher floor, and Jones might have the better superficial traits, but Lock’s upside far surpasses both, and he has the high character to not only learn and develop at the next level, but lead a locker room, and be the franchise masthead teams need at quarterback. Haskins has the mental prowess as well, but Lock’s athleticism and arm talent makes him a long-term investment more worth taking at No. 15, if the opportunity arises.
I’m not a huge, huge proponent of switching players from tackle to guard, if tackle is what they excel at. Yes, it’s worked before with some players. It worked very well with Brandon Scherff. But that doesn’t mean it’ll work that seamlessly every time.
That said, if a player is good enough, and safe enough, it doesn’t matter where you put him. Jonah Williams is one of those players. He fits the Redskins in two ways: With both his Alabama lineage, and his play on the offensive line.
Call Williams what you may: Mauler, technician. Either way, he qualifies. Williams is the most technically refined offensive lineman in this class. He has a very good understanding of leverage, and he’s nimble enough to keep himself in the best position at all times. His hand placement is precise and strong, and he very rarely got beat at the collegiate level.
Williams is strong enough, and brutish enough, and well-rounded enough, that a move inside wouldn’t hinder him. It’s already been theorized by many, as he doesn’t have the requisite length that some teams seek out of their tackles. Still, Williams is an all-around solid line prospect who’ll make an NFL team happy for years to come. And if he falls to No. 15, the Redskins have a case to be that team.
Here’s an interesting one.
Your initial reaction might be “the Redskins don’t need any more defensive tackles”. And you wouldn’t be wrong. The Redskins have Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne, and Matt Ioannidis, and behind them, they have Tim Settle and Caleb Brantley, the latter of whom was a first-round hopeful at one point in 2017. The Redskins aren’t short on interior line talent.
But with that being said, the opportunity to add a talent like Ed Oliver does not come around every year. Or every five years. Or every fifteen years.
Oliver moves extraordinarily well for a defensive lineman. At 6-foot-1, 285, he’s not as big as the average defensive tackle, which helps him. But he’s still a very rare athlete. Logging a 4.75 40-yard dash, a 2.70 20-yard split, and a 1.57 10-yard split, Oliver compiled a relative athleticism score (RAS) of 9.80 this offseason.
In every movement measurement, he tested better than at least 96 percent of all defensive linemen ever recorded, and in four measurements, he tested better than over 99 percent. In the three-cone drill, Oliver logged a 7.00 flat, which is better than 99.9 percent of all linemen to take that test. You can call him a defensive tackle. But he’s so much more than that.
Simply put, Oliver is a blur on the defensive line, and he has the functional strength to pair with his otherworldly athleticism. Some sites might label him as a defensive tackle, but the truth is, Oliver has the talent to do it all. He can line up inside and on the end, and for the Redskins, if he fell to No. 15, he’d make their stellar defensive line almost unstoppable. It’s not a need, but it’s some of the best value you’ll ever come across.
Isn’t it convenient that the most valuable player on this list happens to be the one most likely to fall?
Brian Burns should go in the top ten. He has almost all the traits required for an edge rusher: Burst, bend, length, hand quickness, a high motor, and lateral agility. He can work to implement power into his game more often, but he has the length to cultivate leverage on his own, and with an NFL coach, he could magnify his talents and explode at the next level.
Burns has the best culmination of traits in the 2019 NFL Draft, among edge rushers. The burst that Josh Allen lacks consistently, Burns has. The flexibility that Montez Sweat relatively lacks, Burns has. The length that Polite lacks, Burns has. By my evaluation, Burns is the closest challenger to Nick Bosa by a decent margin. He’s No. 3 on my draft board, and yet, we keep hearing that he’ll slip.
Why would Burns slip? Perhaps his less-than-dominant production (still very good) might scare teams away, who might think he’s maxed himself out. Perhaps teams are still hung up on his playing weight, as Burns played at 235 in college, although he weighed in at 250 at the NFL Combine, and didn’t lose a step.
As we’ve seen in the past, teams will cling to some negative traits, and convince themselves out of picking a prospect. Such a case could happen to Brian Burns, especially in a draft class where Montez Sweat has a 4.41 40-yard dash time and impressive strength; in a draft class where Josh Allen has monstrous production to boast; in a draft class where Clelin Ferrell’s Clemson lineage speaks for itself.
Brian Burns could very well fall to No. 15, and if he does, he’s the best value deal the Redskins can get; filling a need and adding a top five talent all at the same time.