With only one healthy quarterback on the roster, the Redskins need to draft a signal caller. The only question is when.
If you favor a rebuilding year in 2019, then the Washington Redskins shouldn’t draft a quarterback until Day 3. Late Round 3 at the earliest. The list of possible targets isn’t long, but it’s headlined by Brett Rypien, whose pro-ready game makes him an intriguing fit at the team without a pro to start.
If you align with the Redskins front office, however, then you want the Redskins to maximize their assets and attempt to win now. But if the Redskins want to win now, they need a quarterback. And while Brett Rypien could succeed in the right situation, he’s not the coveted first-round quarterback. In fact, few in this quarterback class are. But teams will inflate their opinions of the top signal callers in the 2019 class, in order to better cope with the uncertainty.
While the 2018 class was stocked with surefire franchise quarterbacks, such as Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and Josh Rosen, the 2019 class is less top-heavy, and less deep. Where the 2018 class spoiled the NFL, the 2019 class leaves the league sitting on pins and needles. Who in this class will emerge and become a franchise quarterback? And who will fall, in spectacular fashion?
One of the most polarizing quarterbacks in the 2019 NFL Draft, in this regard, is Missouri’s Drew Lock. In his current state, Lock is no lock at all. But if he can clear up some very pressing issues, he could truly have the most upside in the 2019 NFL Draft class. Should Lock be considered with pick No. 15? See for yourself.
Scouting Lock
Some will say that Lock is underdeveloped mentally, as an NFL prospect. After watching, I’m not so sure this is entirely accurate. He’s a smart quarterback, but he has a number of bad habits, mostly pertaining to footwork and pocket poise, that he needs to break, in order to succeed at the next level.
Lock’s footwork is the first thing that stands out on tape, and not in a good way. In his worst games, Lock works his way back, as if his feet are on auto-pilot, every other snap. It’s not just laziness with footwork, but an actual habit that has been formed, and compounded upon, and needs to be broken. Lock throws from his back foot far too often, and even from that stance, he delivers some crisp passes. But he drastically limits the amount of things he can do on a given snap when he doesn’t step up into the pocket.
This is a prevalent issue, and must be addressed immediately at the next level. Lock’s poor footwork and poise limits his ability to go through progressions. It limits his ability to throw a consistently catchable ball. And it limits his ability to see the field beyond the first read. The footwork is a problem of considerable magnitude, but because so many of his other problems stem from his footwork, it’s worth wondering: If you fix the footwork, will the rest of his game come together?
Lock shows hints on his tape that maybe, just maybe, that’s the case. When his feet are set, he makes some very impressive throws. His arm talent is real, and his throwing motion is a very fast, fluid one. He can throw from multiple arm angles with high velocity, showcasing this exceptional arm talent. Lock’s arm has been regarded as “big”, but his arm is not just a big arm; it’s a versatile arm. Lock can cultivate the velocity to fit the ball into very tight windows on all three levels of the field. Touch throws and bullets, more so, are in his repertoire.
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From a mental processing standpoint, there are issues with Lock, but again, some of that is the consequence of detrimental habits with his base. Pressure can force Lock to hesitate and ultimately make his decisions too late, and in those situations, he trust his arm too much. When he has no business throwing the ball anywhere but out of play, he can try to force it, off-base. These panic moments compound Lock’s weaknesses and lead to high-risk, low-reward throws. His confidence in his arm can make him reckless, which, in essence, spawns comparisons to Jay Cutler.
When footwork is not the denominator of Lock’s performance, we see hints of a higher I.Q. suggested. On multiple occasions in film, Lock showed the ability to manipulate the safety with his eyes. He also showed flashes of crafty deception as a runner, using pump fakes to his advantage. Lock does a decent job of recognizing blitzes and accordingly getting the ball out quick. Against Florida, at the 5:35 mark, Lock made an impressive audible at the line of scrimmage on the goal line. Seeing a heavy blitz to the left interior, he changed the play to a read option, and when the defense overloaded the left, Lock took the ball in space to the right, getting a good chunk of yards.
Lock does need to work on keeping his eyes downfield on rollouts, as even hinted pressure makes him skittish. He’s diligent with play action fakes, able to whip his shoulders around quickly after faking the exchange. He has the athleticism to thrive in rollout situations in the NFL, but he needs to kick the habit of fading backwards. This, again, ties back to his poise. Lock is substantially mobile in the pocket, but he needs to use that mobility the right way.
In his best moments, Lock looks like a transcendent talent. When his feet are set, he makes some very impressive throws, and even when they’re not, he can still hit tight windows on the run. Lock has the coveted ability to turn a broken play into a big gain, something he showed on numerous occasions in his bowl game performance against Oklahoma State. He has just the right mix of power and pillow to put into his deep passes to fit them into tight windows, and if his base improves, so too could his inconsistency issues.
Lock’s inconsistency, while we’re on the topic, is an intriguing aspect of his game. Down the middle of the field, and on end zone fades, he’s very spotty, and he can float passes when rushed. He doesn’t always throw unless a receiver is wide open, although he does show some hints of anticipation and progression work. But a lot of times, he locks onto his first read and throws them into dangerous situations, failing to lead them correctly based on situation. Why? Because his feet are moving backward, and he takes himself out of the optimal place to survey the field. Then defenders break containment and follow Lock, and it’s a slippery slope from there.
Therein lies the greatest question of Lock’s tape: What can he be if he can fix his footwork, and instill poise into his game? When he actually gives himself a chance to go through progressions, and stands tall in the pocket, he flashes brilliance, looking off safeties and throwing lasers right where they need to be. Whenever he shows anticipation, his feet are set. Whenever he doesn’t, he’s already diverted his eyes to the check-down option by fading backward.
Progressions are still a major question mark for Lock, because he never gives the play enough time to develop. He showed growth, pertaining to poise, in his bowl game performance, especially in high-pressure situations, and the fact that Lock developed some consistency over the course of 2018 is a promising factor. He comes to the NFL as a player slowly trending up.
But Lock is still a polarizing prospect, and he will be for years to come. His poise is terribly inconsistent, and his footwork needs immense polish. But so many of his other issues stem from his footwork, it’s fair to wonder how much of Lock’s game can be unlocked by fixing his base. He has the arm talent to be an exceptional starter, and he has the ability to deliver the ‘wow’ throws that only NFL quarterbacks can make. But every ‘wow’ throw comes with a ‘what’ throw. Consistency is what Lock needs to strive for.
Again, with his inconsistency, Lock relates to Jay Cutler as a prospect, in some aspects. But when his fundamentals check out, Lock is perhaps more accurate than Cutler, and his arm is more elastic. Lock’s mentality also factors into the equation. While Cutler was labeled as hard to work with at times, Lock has shown at every juncture that he’s the kind of quarterback you want leading your team. As a leader, he helped turn around a Missouri football program reeling from boycott and underperformance, bringing them back to a bowl game in his final two seasons as starter.
At the Senior Bowl, Lock’s charismatic, yet thoughtful personality was placed under the spotlight, and off of limited encounters, he seems like the type of quarterback who would respond well to coaching and constructive criticism. Combine his mentality with his undeniable physical talents, and he could have the highest upside in the 2019 class. Mentally, Lock may have some refinement to do. But make no mistake; he’s a smart quarterback. Bad habits are limiting his development, and if they can be broken, Lock can be the best quarterback out of this class.
Tape Watched
Drew Lock vs. Oklahoma State (2018)
Best Tape: Oklahoma State, Florida
Worst Tape: Georgia, Kentucky, Alabama
How Lock fits the Redskins
It’s no secret how Drew Lock fits the Redskins. He fits at quarterback.
The real question is, do the Redskins have the support system in place to put Lock on the developmental track he needs to take to have a successful NFL career? If Lock’s NFL coach would put his foot down (pun intended) on Lock’s poise and presence, then eventual returns could be worth the investment. But a concerted effort needs to be made toward fixing Lock’s footwork, because in the NFL, the game moves even faster, and Lock can’t get caught falling behind.
From a physical standpoint, however, Lock does fit the Redskins west coast scheme. He executed a good amount of screens in college, prepping him for key staples of Jay Gruden’s offense, but at the same time, he can make any throw that needs to be made on all three levels. He’s mobile enough to execute rollouts and other concepts designed to work with a quarterback’s mobility. He displayed good awareness and executions on various option plays throughout his career, and when a receiver’s open, he can hit them with a crisp, pinpoint pass.
Gruden and new offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell would need to spend time solidifying Lock’s progression work, and the need for anticipating passes would have to be emphasized. But Lock does fit what the Redskins are doing, and mentally, he could respond well to Alex Smith as a mentor, if the latter would take on that role in the event that Lock is selected.
Were he to be drafted by Washington, Lock would fall into a situation with a coach who’s developed quarterbacks before, and a quarterback in the quarterback room who’s worked wonders for his fellow signal callers as a mentor. There’s lots to clean up, but Washington is far from the worst place for Lock to come, to seek out refinement. The only condition? The Redskins need to draft a guard in Round 2 if Lock goes Round 1, because Lock does not do well against interior pressure.
Should the Redskins draft Drew Lock?
This question demands that another question is asked: Are the Redskins a quarterback away from contention? If not, can they risk inserting a project of sorts into the starting lineup before he’s ready for the big stage?
In an ideal situation, if Lock was drafted, Alex Smith would be available to start initially, similar to the Patrick Mahomes situation in Kansas City. But Smith is not available, and he might not ever be. If Lock is drafted, he’d be the Redskins No. 1 quarterback right away. And while that experience could help his overall development, it could also set him back, as he wouldn’t have the time to sit back and focus on refining the detrimental aspects of his game.
The team could, in theory, start Colt McCoy over Lock, but that sends a message that the Redskins’ first-round quarterback isn’t ready. That brings back memories of Shuler, and Ramsey, and Campbell. More likely than not, Lock is the Day 1 starter if he’s drafted. And as much as his potential is enthralling, he’s not ready to start on Day 1, with his pocket game in its current state.
If the Redskins feel good about Lock’s progression in 2018, and if Alex Smith is available as a mentor presence, despite his injury, then there is reasoning to draft Lock in Round 1. He has the biggest upside of any quarterback in the 2019 class, and he has the right mentality to learn and improve wherever possible. In time, he could become a franchise quarterback.
But if Lock would be on his own in D.C., then the first-round pick is better spent elsewhere, because there’s nothing worse than a wasted investment at quarterback. It can set a team back for years, as the Alex Smith contract may have already done for Washington. Drew Lock brings monstrous potential to the Redskins draft board, but also has bust potential, if placed in the wrong situation. If you draft Drew Lock, you get a prospect with franchise upside. But are you willing to take the risk?