The Washington Redskins have a decision to make at quarterback. Here’s what the 2019 NFL Draft could look like if the ‘Skins end up taking a quarterback in the first round.
The Redskins decision at quarterback will be one of the most intriguing things to watch this offseason. They will likely add someone at the position as insurance in the likely event that Alex Smith can’t play in 2019 — or for at least part of the season. The question is, who will they add and what resources will they give up to do so?
In all likelihood, the team will not be able to add one of the higher-cost options at the position in free agency. They will probably have to sign either a high-upside guy or a career backup to serve behind Colt McCoy for a season if they take that route.
If the team goes for a quarterback in the draft, they could either go for an early-round option to compete with McCoy outright or target a late-round option to develop into a backup and give the reigns to McCoy in 2019. The lattermost scenario may be the most beneficial to the team long-term, as the 2020 quarterback class looks stronger than that of this year. That said, teams will often fall in love with a prospect when they have a need at QB, so the Redskins could take one this year if that happens.
No matter how you look at it, the Redskins’ decision at quarterback will impact their draft strategy, and it will be important for them to assess what the most efficient option will be for the squad. We did a simulation, using FanSpeak’s On The Clock Simulator, to see what the team could look like if they target a first-round quarterback. Here’s a look at the results and the verdict on whether or not this strategy would work.
Round 1, Pick 15: QB Drew Lock, Missouri
As mentioned, we were locked into a quarterback in the first round. So, fittingly, we were able to land Drew Lock with the pick.
Lock was the fourth quarterback off the board in this simulation. For context, Kyler Murray went to the Giants at No. 6, Daniel Jones went to the Jaguars at No. 7, and Dwayne Haskins fell to the Dolphins at 13. While I would assume Haskins would go first overall of this group, the simulation still took three of the quarterbacks off the board and left us with the last first-round option.
Lock is a prospect who has a cannon of an arm and has improved over the course of his career at Missouri. In 2018, he had the highest completion percentage of his college career (62.9) while throwing just eight picks (the lowest total of his career). While he showed growth in that area, he still has to develop.
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Really, what Lock has to do is learn how to control his arm. Because he has such great arm strength, Lock can be prone to overthrowing receivers or putting too much heat on the ball. If he can learn how to throw with more touch and not use every ounce of his arm strength in every throw, he will be able to find more success at the NFL level. But until that happens, his accuracy and ball placement will be inconsistent.
If the Redskins are looking for a potential franchise quarterback, Lock could be the answer. He has some warts, but he would come on a rookie contract and has the arm strength needed to have an impact at the NFL level. If he can build off his solid bowl game performance during the pre-draft process, he will solidify himself as a top-15 pick.
If the team didn’t go with a quarterback at this juncture, there were plenty of other quality options available. Jachai Polite and Josh Allen were available at the edge position in this simulation (though Allen is unlikely to be available in real life), so they would be options. Elsewhere, corner Byron Murphy and offensive lineman Jonah Williams would have been sensible options to help build on either side of the ball.
Round 2, Pick 14: OL Dalton Risner, Kansas State
The Redskins have long had a hole on their offensive line at left guard. Shawn Lauvao has been a disaster there for the past five years, as he hasn’t been able to stay healthy. A change is needed, and the team will probably target one at some point.
With the team’s mid-second-round pick, Risner was the best option. He has been a four-year starter at both center and right tackle for Kansas State and hast he versatility needed to be a major weapon at the NFL level.
Our own Matt Valdovinos had Risner ranked as one of his top options for the team’s first-round pick. Here’s what he said about Risner in his early January big board for the Redskins.
Washington Commanders
"Risner is one of my favorite players in the entire draft. He a selfless leader who’s played all along the Kansas State line at an elite level. A mauler in the run game and a wall in pass protection, Risner is gonna be a very good player in the NFL. He has the physical tools and attitude to be a pro-bowl level offensive lineman. Left guard has been the biggest hole on the Redskins roster for years. The line has four of its pieces set, and they’re some very good pieces. They’ve already dubbed themselves the “Hogs 2.0,” with Risner, they’d be able to put some real substance behind that claim."
I don’t necessarily agree that Risner should be an option with the No. 15 pick — at least not at this time — but landing him in the second round would be a fantastic option. Risner would be an immediate starter at guard and could kick out to guard if necessary. His ability to play virtually any position would be a major plus, as versatility on the offensive line is always a big asset.
The Redskins could also consider other positions with this pick, as receiver J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and safety Deionte Thompson were still on the board. Thompson was particularly tempting, but Risner was just as good a value and getting protection for Lock was near the top of our to-do list at this point. If the team opts to sign a guard in free agency, that could change the plan here. But for now, Risner is the better option.
Round 3, Pick 12: WR Andy Isabella, UMass
One element that is missing from the Washington offense is speed. Paul Richardson was supposed to develop into the top speed threat for their offense, but that never transpired, as he dealt with injuries in his first season with the ‘Skins. He will return in 2019, but the team needs to add some extra depth and playmaking ability at receiver regardless.
With this pick, we were targeting either Marquise Brown or Andy Isabella. Brown went off the board one pick earlier (and in all likelihood, he will be an early second-round pick anyway). We were happy to scoop up Isabella in the early third round.
Isabella, hailing from my alma mater, UMass, is one of the more underrated receiver prospects in this draft. The 5-foot-10 speedster has put up three big seasons for the Minutemen, totaling 229 catches for 3,519 yards and 30 touchdown catches in the past three seasons. Additionally, he has totaled 342 yards on the ground on just 40 carries with two TDs. He has particularly thrived in the past two seasons when working (mostly) with Andrew Ford as the starter. At the NFL level, he should develop into a trusty receiver in the slot who will have some capability as an outside receiver as well.
Isabella’s deep speed is no joke, and it’s the asset that could help him separate in the lead up to the 2019 NFL Draft. He clocked a 10.51 time in the 100-yard dash in high school, and he could legitimately clock a sub-4.3 time in the 40-yard dash at the combine. That, plus Isabella’s experience as a running back in college and as a freshman, will make him appeal as a versatile player and top-notch speed threat.
The only concern with Isabella is that he’s on the smaller side for receivers at 5-10. He can still definitely be an impactful player, but he might be better suited to man the slot. Still, that shouldn’t downgrade Isabella, as slot players are becoming more and more important in the NFL.
In Washington, Isabella could eventually earn a starting role in the slot, if Jamison Crowder is gone. If Isabella doesn’t win that, he could be the ideal backup to Richardson and will certainly get plenty of run in that role. For a third-round pick, Isabella possesses a lot of value, and also would have the potential to be used as a kick or punt returner.
Round 3, Pick 32: TE Jace Sternberger, Texas A&M
Sternberger is an interesting pickup with this compensatory selection. Sternberger was a one-year starter at Texas A&M after transferring from Kansas. The results for him in the Aggies’ offense was very good.
Sternberger put up a great season with the Aggies. He had 48 catches for 832 yards and 10 touchdowns. He was a real red-zone threat for that offense and he should have a chance for similar production at the next level.
Jon Ledyard of The Draft Network offered this analysis of Sternberger and pointed out what could lead him to succeed at the NFL level.
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"Size and athleticism are excellent. Offers long speed and run-after-catch ability that few tight ends possess. Length and catch radius to snag balls outside his frame. Will go up and compete in tight windows for contested catch balls. Subtle nastiness to his game, fearless over the middle and will focus to reel in balls despite contact. Doesn’t go down easily post-catch. Physical tools are tantalizing, both as a blocker and receiver. Athletic build with excellent weight distribution allows him to physically hold up against most assignments, although technique is an issue. Does an excellent job positioning himself for catches in tight quarters and will go outside his frame for tough catches. Good concentration to finish on the ball despite adverse conditions at times."
The Redskins really need another potential option at tight end, so Sternberger could fit the bill. He could take over for Jordan Reed — if he leaves — or emerge as the No. 2 tight end if the team cuts Vernon Davis. Sternberger would help give Lock more options, and after three rounds, this mock has certainly address a number of the team’s issues on offense.
Round 5, Pick 15: DB Amani Hooker, Iowa
Iowa has quietly been one of the best producers of versatile defensive backs over the past five or so years. Guys like Micah Hyde, Desmond King, and Josh Jackson have all become solid players at the NFL level, and Hyde and King have particularly been Swiss Army knives for their respective NFL teams.
Amani Hooker could be the next in line among Iowa DBs. He’s one of the most versatile players in this draft, and it’s possible that he could end up being a Day 2 pick in the draft. By getting him on Day 3, the Redskins could be getting a steal.
The Redskins need to add some talent to their secondary. They cut D.J. Swearinger after he repeatedly called out his coaches and teammates to the media while Ha Ha Clinton-Dix is a free agent. Even if Clinton-Dix is re-signed, the team should definitely add another potential starter to compete with Montae Nicholson. And Hooker would provide that.
Hooker was one of the best coverage players in the country, per Pro Football Focus this season, grading out with a 90.5 coverage grade. That was third-best among all qualified players. In addition to his coverage ability, he is a solid tackler (career-high 65 in 2018) and he has solid ball skills too (six interceptions in the past two seasons combined). That will make him a well-rounded player for the next level.
In the NFL, Hooker should be a more than solid safety and will also have the ability to play slot corner and maybe even linebacker in certain situations. He really could by the next version of Hyde, so scooping him up and employing him as a do-it-all player would be a great move.
Round 5, Pick 33: CB Ken Webster, Ole Miss
Getting young talent at quarterback isn’t a necessity for the Redskins. They already have Fabian Moreau, Greg Stroman, and Danny Johnson on the roster, so adding another late-round option may not seem necessary. That said, it remains a possibility.
This offseason, the ‘Skins could elect to move on from Josh Norman. It’s not a given that they will, but if they don’t think his play and cap number match up — a strong possibility — they will have to either restructure him or release him. If they do, they may try to add some more depth at the position, and Ken Webster could be a good value option in Round 5.
Webster is a holdover pick from my full Redskins offseason simulation that I did earlier in January. Here’s what I said about picking Webster at the time.
"Ole Miss’ Ken Webster was once considered to be a potential early-round prospect, but some injuries have knocked him down to late-round consideration. Webster, when healthy, has solid speed and good ball skills, so getting him at the end of the fifth frame could work out. At the very least, he could challenge the team’s other young corners for roles within the secondary."
In the late fifth round, getting a player who could eventually emerge as a contributor as a starter is a good move. Webster has the upside. If he can ever regain his pre-injury form, there’s a chance that he could be a No. 2 corner in the NFL. At the very least, he is a quality backup and with the team taking an offensive-heavy approach early on in this mock, Webster is their best chance at landing a potential starter.
Round 6, Pick 32: LB Kendall Joseph, Clemson
The Redskins need to add some depth at linebacker. They have some solid players in Reuben Foster and Shaun Dion Hamilton, but the fate of Mason Foster and Zach Brown has yet to be determined. That said, they don’t need a starter, so grabbing a late guy with upside would be the way to go.
Joseph would qualify. The Clemson linebacker has been a starter for the past three seasons, and he has been an all-around solid player. For the NFL level, he will have a chance to be a top-caliber backup and could eventually emerge as a starter.
Last season, Joseph had 79 tackles and 3.5 sacks, and the sack total was a career high for him. He has seen his tackle totals decrease in the past couple of years, but that had more to do with the fundamentally sound nature of the Clemson defense along with their rock-solid defensive line. Plus, playing next to Tre Lamar has both helped Joseph while also decreasing his overall tackle numbers.
At the very least, Joseph will have a solid presence as a run defender and a special teamer at the next level. At the most, he could eventually emerge as a starter. He will need to get a bit stronger and physical when attacking downhill, as he tends to try and avoid blocks instead of engaging them. That, along with improved coverage skills, are the big areas of improvement for Joseph moving forward.
In the late sixth-round, Joseph is worth the add. He will bring competition to the Redskins’ linebacker unit, so this seems like a solid acquisition.
Round 7, Pick 13: WR Emanuel Hall, Missouri
This seems like an opportunity that would be too good to pass up. While Hall is merely a late-round prospect at receiver, he would bring something big with him. Continuity.
Hall has worked with Lock for the past four years at Missouri and has served as the team’s No. 1 receiver. He has a great 6-foot-3 frame and has served as a downfield threat and jump ball weapon in the past. He would come in already sporting chemistry with Lock, and that could do a lot to give Lock some confidence in his first year as a starter.
Despite Hall’s skill set, there are some concerns with him that could push him to the last couple rounds of the NFL draft. Most notably, Hall has struggled with injuries during his college career, and he only played 10 games once in four seasons at Missouri. That’s a big concern, even if they are just nagging injuries. At the NFL level, players have to play through more of those nagging injuries, so teams would likely question Hall about this in the pre-draft process.
That said, Hall is a great value in the seventh round. He has the talent of an early Day 3 pick and if he impresses in the pre-draft process, he could go in the back-end of Day 2. So, grabbing him at this point, he’s an excellent value who could play a role as a red-zone contributor right away for the Redskins.
This kind of draft could work for the Redskins. However, they do pass on some superior values in the first round to get Lock, so it might be better for them to continue to build up the rest of their team before investing in a young passer. In the near future, we will do a simulation that sees them eschew the quarterback position altogether, so we’ll be able to better compare those two once the second one happens.