The Washington Redskins have a lot of decisions to make during the 2019 offseason. Here’s a look at a simulation that spans all of NFL free agency and the 2019 NFL Draft.
The Redskins 2018 season mercifully came to an end just under a week ago. And now, the team is preparing for the 2019 offseason. This offseason will be a very important one for the team, as they are dealing with a lot of questions. They also don’t have certainty at quarterback but frankly, at this point, that is nothing new.
Alex Smith‘s injury puts the Redskins in a very tough situation. He’s going to stay on the books no matter what, but he may not play. And even if he does, he might not be 100 percent. Because of this, the team is a bit hamstrung. They don’t have the cap space needed to add a veteran passer, but they may also not have the resources to get a worthwhile quarterback in the draft, either. What they do at the position will be the top thing to watch this offseason.
Elsewhere, the team has a plethora of key players hitting free agency, including Adrian Peterson, Jamison Crowder, and Preston Smith, among others. And, they are armed with nine draft picks too, so they should have a chance to add some quality playmakers there.
To get an accurate look at what could happen this offseason, we decided to run a simulation of what could happen. Using FanSpeak’s On The Clock and Manage The Cap tools, we were able to run through the entirety of free agency and the NFL Draft and remake the Redskins’ franchise.
Without further ado, here’s a look at a full simulation of the Redskins’ 2019 offseason.
Coaching staff
There isn’t really a way to simulate staff hiring and firing out there just yet, but it’s easy enough to just speculate about what will happen. That said, the Redskins don’t always make it easy to figure out.
Throughout the week, Redskins fans and coaches alike have been waiting to hear what the squad was going to do with Jay Gruden and his staff. Now, it seems to be confirmed that Gruden is going to return for 2019, but there should be some changes to his staff.
Notably, the team needs to think about making changes at both coordinator positions. Greg Manusky, the defensive coordinator, has particularly come under fire in recent weeks, and the team could opt to part ways with him to add a new member to their coaching staff. If they do, there will be some interesting candidates out there.
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Notably, Todd Bowles is a coach that would make sense. Bowles just finished up four years as the Jets head coach. While he wasn’t great in that role, he is an excellent defensive mind and has proven to be one of the top defensive coordinators in the league. Bowles has ties to the Redskins from his playing days, and that should make him a top target if the team makes changes at defensive coordinator.
On the offensive side of the ball, it might behoove the team to get passing game coordinator Kevin O’Connell more involved and eventually shift the offensive coordinator role from Matt Cavanaugh to him. It’s unclear if this type of change would happen, but if the team decides to freshen things up a bit on offense, giving O’Connell more responsibility would do that.
For now, I’m expecting that Gruden stays in the head coach role and everything else is status quo, save for the change at defensive coordinator. And for the sake of this simulation, we’ll hire Bowles as our DC in D.C., since there is a possibility that could happen if Manusky leaves. Here are some other top defensive coordinator candidates for the team to consider.
Roster cuts
Cuts were brutal this year. The team has a lot of big-money veterans that they will have to make a decision on. That won’t be easy at all, as a couple of them are big-name players that may not be easy to replace.
The biggest player to make a decision on will be Josh Norman. In 2019, Norman will carry a cap hit of $14.5 million. Entering his age-31 season, Norman has declined a bit in the years past, and it’s unclear if Washington will want to keep paying him at that rate. While the team doesn’t have a great replacement option at the moment, we elected to part with him and pick up the $8.5 million in cap saving that comes from cutting Norman.
On the other side of the ball, the Redskins are facing a similar dilemma with Jordan Reed. Reed is set to have a $9.7 million cap number, but he has ended the last two seasons on IR and has failed to stay healthy for a full 16-game slate during his NFL career. It’s going to be hard to justify keeping him at that number.
That said, ESPN’s John Keim recently pointed out that Gruden said, “tight ends who can win against man and zone are hard to find.” That could indicate that the team isn’t yet willing to move on from Reed. For that reason, we decided to keep Reed on the roster and instead part ways with backup TE Vernon Davis (who was set for a $6.4 million cap hit as a backup). It will be interesting to see what their decision is at this position, but it seems that Davis will be gone, at the very least.
The other notable cuts were Mason Foster and Zach Brown. The two inside linebackers have had their share of struggles this season both on and off the field. Foster is still a solid two-down player, but he can’t cover anymore. Meanwhile, Brown has just been inconsistent and he implied that his time with Washington might be ending soon. With Reuben Foster likely to play at some point in 2019, the team doesn’t have as much incentive to hold onto both, so parting with them and saving money makes sense.
After making the roster cuts, we turned to the rest of the roster and targeted the players we wanted to re-sign.
Re-Signing Players: Offense
Frankly speaking, there are only a couple of key players on either side of the ball that are bigger ticket items. Most of the other guys are depth guys. So, we targeted re-signing the key depth players that could be important to the future success of the Redskins.
To start off, we wanted to make sure we re-signed Adrian Peterson. The future Hall of Famer had a great season and should be an excellent mentor for Derrius Guice moving forward. We didn’t want to overpay for a 34-year-old backup, so we agreed on a one year, $1.5 million deal (50 percent guaranteed) with him. That gives Peterson a slight raise after performing so well last year and it gives the team great insurance and the mentor as well. It seems like a mutually beneficial deal.
Elsewhere, Josh Johnson became the apple of our eye as well. Johnson wasn’t anything great as the starter in Washington, but he was serviceable. With Alex Smith uncertain to return, at best, the team needs to make sure they have some options at the position in 2019. And since the 2019 NFL Draft class is weaker at quarterback and adding a veteran like Joe Flacco in the offseason would be cost prohibitive, keeping Johnson seemed like a good idea.
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Ultimately, Johnson signed for one year at $1 million, with 50 percent guaranteed. For a potential No. 2 quarterback, that’s not bad. Many fans may not be particularly excited to see him return, but he did enough to earn a chance to win a backup spot. If he falls apart in the preseason, the team can move on with little consequence. But this just gives the team an insurance policy in case they roll with Colt McCoy as their stopgap option.
The final two moves made were to re-sign some depth players on the offensive line. Both Tony Bergstrom and Jonathan Cooper were added on short-term deals to provide interior depth. Bergstrom signed for one year and $1.5 million while Cooper inked for two years at $2 million per year. That may seem like a steep price for Cooper, but the deal is only 25 percent guaranteed, making it a low-risk investment for a 29-year-old offensive lineman. That’s not bad, considering that he could be a decent starter.
We did let some offensive players go (more on them later) but first, we get to the big question on defense. Did we re-sign Preston Smith?
Re-Signing Players: Preston Smith
To re-sign Preston Smith, or not to re-sign. That is the question. And it’s one that doesn’t have an easy answer.
Washington seems to like Smith. And there is a good reason for that. He puts solid heat on opposing quarterbacks and he is a long, athletic playmaker at times. But that last part is the key part, at times. There are other times that Smith disappears for long stretches and doesn’t make an impact. And the 2018 season saw a lot of the latter version of Smith.
Smith racked up just four sacks during the season. He still generated pressure sometimes, but he wasn’t as effective as he has been in seasons past. And leading up to his free agency, that is causing a lot of questions.
The market for edge rushers is at an all-time high right now, as NFL teams are realizing that having a quality pass rush can transform a defense. Smith seems likely to get paid a sizable amount on the open market. But at the same time, because he’s coming off a down year, might that scare some teams away? Not necessarily. Trent Murphy got a three-year deal worth $7.5 million annually last offseason despite missing the entire previous season with an injury. So, even Smith, coming off a depressing season, will be coveted as a free agent.
We tried this simulation in two different ways. The first time, we re-signed Smith to a deal worth $30 million total over three years. Then, we let him walk to see what his value would be on the open market. In that simulation, he got a deal worth $37.5 million over three years from the Cardinals. So, we technically were getting Smith at a discount. But still, stomaching $10 million per year for a player that sometimes disappears is a lot.
Ultimately, we decided to let Smith walk. The 2019 draft class is loaded with potential edge rush prospects, so we were confident that we could replace Smith adequately. However, we would first have to tackle free agency and fill some of the other holes that we have to avoid having too many needs during the draft.
Key departures
Aside from Smith, there were a few key departures from the outgoing Redskins free agent class. That said, none will be missed too much.
Most notably, we let Jamison Crowder walk. Crowder had some injury issues in 2018 and struggled to stay on the field. When active, he rarely made a big impact and was only a marginal receiver with Alex Smith as the starter.
Crowder seems likely to get a deal that pays $8-$10 million annually, as he profiles similarly to Albert Wilson with better production, so it didn’t seem like a great move to re-sign Crowder. That did leave us thin at receiver, but the goal was to address the position in both free agency and the draft.
Elsewhere, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix wasn’t retained. He didn’t perform well after a midseason trade over from the Packers, and in the simulation, he didn’t accept any of our one-year, “prove it” deals. For that reason, we had to let him go, despite the crater the team now possesses at safety.
Finally, we had to let a couple of good, veteran depth pieces walk as well. Pernell McPhee and Ty Nsekhe were let go, as they wouldn’t accept out offers at backup-level prices. Nsekhe ended up scoring a two-year deal worth $4.6 million annually, and we just couldn’t justify paying that price given the money we already have tied up in the offensive line, Brandon Scherff‘s pending extension, and the fact that Nsekhe would merely be a backup for this team.
These weren’t easy players to let go, but it had to be done so we could add some other quality pieces in free agency.
Free Agent Signings: Offense
On the offensive side of the ball, we wanted to target two key areas. First, we wanted to plug the hole that has been plaguing the team at left guard for the better part of the last five years. And second, we wanted to see if we could grab a receiver to replace Jamison Crowder, and one that may be able to fit better into the team’s offense.
We were able to do just that.
At guard, we settled on Ramon Foster. The former Steeler was available on the free agent market and we were able to nab him for a total of $21 million over three years. That would tie Foster for the 20th-highest paid guard in the NFL, and that is more than reasonable to retain his services.
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During his career, Foster has started 131 games and has generally been a solid cog on the Steelers’ offensive line. While he is turning 33 in early January, interior linemen tend to stay in their prime longer. So, he can be trusted as a starter, and $7 million yearly to fix one of the team’s problem spots seems like a bargain. Were he to regress early in the contract, the team could part ways with him for with little issue.
Meanwhile, at receiver, we settled on another veteran that could work out in the Redskins’ system. That would be Golden Tate. The YAC machine had trouble getting going in Philadelphia after a midseason trade over from Detroit, but he still posted a solid 10.7 yards per catch and had nearly 800 yards on the season. Because of his ability to produce with the ball in his hands, we wanted to make sure we got him.
At the end of the day, we managed to nab Tate for $30 million over three years. The deal was 45 percent guaranteed. This is roughly what we would have had to pay Crowder to stay, so a case could be made that Crowder (25) would have been a better long-term investment than Tate (30). That is definitely a sensible argument given the age disparity, but Tate’s elusive ability and ability to turn short catches into long gains is why we targeted him. Crowder has a bit of that skill set, but Tate is superior at it.
With the team dealing with questions at quarterback, having a dynamic, explosive, and consistent player like Tate would be helpful. The consistency is the one part of that equation that Crowder lacks.
Free Agent Signings: Defense
After shoring up the offensive side of the ball, we shifted our attention to the defense. Here, we wanted to look at the edge rusher market, the safety position, and see if we could find a capable replacement at inside linebacker to help fill in while Reuben Foster is (likely) suspended. In two of those areas, we found success.
With both Clinton-Dix and D.J. Swearinger gone, safety is arguably the biggest hole on the Redskins. Thankfully, there are more than enough quality candidates on the free agent market to help replace them. One of them is Landon Collins. The former Alabama star has been a solid all-around player for the Giants over the course of the past four years. And in Washington, he would easily become their top safety overall.
Collins could fill the void left behind by the departed safety duo. He has the range needed to be a playmaker but is also a solid tackler. Sure, he can struggle at times in coverage, but that can be said of virtually every safety in the league. He should be a more than solid starter, so getting his as the team’s top replacement seems like the way to go.
Washington Commanders
In the simulation, Collins ended up signing a deal worth $45 million over five years. It’s a big investment, but he really has a good chance to live up to the deal. At just 25, Collins is entering what should be his prime. And if the team decides they want to invest at the position, picking up Collins would be a smart move.
Elsewhere, we made a buy-low move at inside linebacker by stealing Jordan Hicks away from the rival Eagles. Hicks is a very good all-around linebacker, but the Eagles may have trouble re-signing him due to a lack of cap space. Plus, Hicks has missed 13 games over the course of the past two seasons, so those injury issues may hurt his value on the market.
We were able to sign Hicks for $15 million over three years. That’s not bad at all, considering that he could end up starting in place of Foster while he’s out and next to him when he returns. Hicks also has scheme versatility and turns 27 in June, so provided that he can stay healthy, this deal could turn into a bargain (14th-ranked among inside linebackers).
By adding two, key young pieces on defense, the Redskins unit would have the makings of a top-10 squad in that area. And after the draft, that outlook only got brighter.
NFL Draft, Day 1
With all the free agents signed, there was one major hole left to address on defense prior to the draft. That came at the edge rush position. With Preston Smith gone, there is no true starter across from Ryan Kerrigan. That needed to change on Day 1 of the draft simulation, especially considering that Kerrigan’s prime will soon come to an end.
Thankfully, the 2019 NFL Draft class is loaded at the edge rush position, and many defensive linemen could go in the first round. With the No. 15 pick, the Redskins are in position to land whichever of the players falls into their lap to help improve their defense.
With the 15th pick, we were hoping that Clelin Ferrell would fall to us. Unfortunately, that never ended up happening. That said, landing Florida’s Jachai Polite with the pick is not a bad consolation prize at all.
Polite clocked in as the No. 3 option on my early list of players that the ‘Skins should target in Round 1. Polite, an excellent speed rusher, enjoyed a great year at Florida, racking up a career-high 11 sacks before deciding to go pro. His best skill set is his combination of excellent athletic ability and his effort. If he continues to play with a high motor at the NFL level, he should be a sure-fire success.
Polite would bring something to the fold that the team’s edge rush was lacking this year. That is speed. If the team can add a speed element on the outside to go along with Kerrigan and their big-bodied pass rushers on the inside, that defensive front will be extremely difficult to face in 2019.
NFL Draft, Day 2
With the edge rush need now plugged, we shifted our focus to the receiver position and secondary on Day 2. And with the compensatory pick the team is set to acquire from the Kirk Cousins signing, we took a player who was an excellent value at the end of the third.
In Round 2, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown was on the board. Brown, a speed-threat out of Oklahoma, is one of the best receivers in what figures to be a deep receiver class. He is a true game-breaker, as evidenced by his excellent performance the past two years at Oklahoma, and could be a true T.Y. Hilton clone.
Brown would fit in well as a complement to Josh Doctson and Golden Tate, and his speed would add an element to the team’s offense that wasn’t there last year. Of course, there are some concerns about his slight frame, but that’s why he was available in the second round. We couldn’t pass him up at that point.
To start the third round, we took Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, another Florida defender, to play in the Redskins secondary. Gardner-Johnson had an excellent bowl game performance and he has been a ballhawk during his college career, racking up nine total interceptions in three seasons. For the Redskins, Gardner-Johnson could play at safety or nickel back, but we would probably attempt to use him at safety in conjunction with Landon Collins. That would do a lot to fix the back-end of the team’s defense.
With our final pick, Germaine Pratt was still on the board. The NC State linebacker had over 100 tackles this season and has been solid in pass coverage. He used to be a safety, so he could be added as a potential three-down linebacker at the NFL level. But to start his career, he could learn a bit behind Reuben Foster and Jordan Hicks before emerging as a starter.
Between Pratt, Shaun Dion Hamilton, and Josh Harvey-Clemons in addition to Foster and Hicks, the team would have a big-time strength at inside linebacker. And that would be a nice change-of-pace at the position for the Redskins.
NFL Draft, Day 3
Day 3 of the draft was spent grabbing the players that represented either the best value remaining or the best players available.
In the fifth round, UCLA TE Caleb Wilson went to Washington. Wilson had almost 1,000 receiving yards and four TDs in his final year with the Bruins, and he looks like a solid pass-catcher at the next level. He could be given a chance to battle for the backup role behind Jordan Reed.
Later in that same round, we took a cornerback. Ole Miss’ Ken Webster was once considered to be a potential early-round prospect, but some injuries have knocked him down to late-round consideration. Webster, when healthy, has solid speed and good ball skills, so getting him at the end of the fifth frame could work out. At the very least, he could challenge the team’s other young corners for roles within the secondary.
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In the sixth round, we finally pulled the trigger on a quarterback. This was by design, as this is a weaker quarterback class that doesn’t feature many prospective starters. We ended up going with Easton Stick from North Dakota State. Stick has been a very good quarterback for the FCS powerhouse that is NDSU, and he seems like a good system fit in Washington. He has good mobility and has been fairly accurate. He could be developed into a backup and may get some opportunities to see action in a trial-by-fire manner in 2019.
In the final frame, we picked Emanuel Hall, a wide receiver from Missouri, and Charles Omenihu, a defensive lineman from Texas. Hall is a bigger-bodied receiver with a solid skill set. He could develop into a No. 2 receiver in the NFL, but injuries drop him to the later rounds in this simulation.
Meanwhile, Omenihu was the best player available. He’s probably a better fit as an end in a 4-3 defense, but the Redskins can pick him and see where he works. The Redskins play a lot of 4-3 in sub packages anyway, so Omenihu could find a role as a rotational pass rusher.
All in all, this would be a solid haul in the draft. It’s too early to tell if this will actually happen, but at this point, it seems that the team has addressed as many of their needs as they could.
Wrap up
Overall, this simulation ended up being pretty solid. There are still some holes on the roster, but this might be one of the best iterations of the Washington offseason that could happen.
The biggest remaining holes on the Redskins roster after this simulation come at quarterback and cornerback respectively. The quarterback weakness was by design, as it was always going to be tough for the team to find a better option than Colt McCoy for 2019. So, we strengthened other parts of the team around the QB in hopes of finding a young option in what could be a loaded 2020 quarterback class.
At corner, cutting Norman was costly. We just weren’t able to get a great replacement option, and adding only Ken Webster and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson to help at the position (and Gardner-Johnson being just at nickel) might make that one of the team’s biggest weaknesses. That said, the team still has some young talent that could develop at the position, so that won’t be a major issue.
The thing that I like the most about this simulation is that the Redskins now have a strength at inside linebacker. Despite cutting their two starters, they now have a deep, young core there. That should help to make the team’s front seven borderline elite, especially with the addition of Jachai Polite on the edge.
We’ll see if the Redskins end up following a blueprint similar to this. There are a lot of different ways they could go, and this is certainly one of them.