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Simulating the Washington Redskins’ entire 2019 offseason

By Jacob Camenker

PHILADELPHIA, PA - DECEMBER 03: Josh Norman #24 of the Washington Redskins walks off the field after the game against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on December 3, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Eagles defeated the Redskins 28-13. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - DECEMBER 03: Josh Norman #24 of the Washington Redskins walks off the field after the game against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on December 3, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Eagles defeated the Redskins 28-13. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /
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LANDOVER, MD – DECEMBER 20: Linebacker Preston Smith #94 of the Washington Redskins celebrates a tackle against the Buffalo Bills at FedExField on December 20, 2015 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
LANDOVER, MD – DECEMBER 20: Linebacker Preston Smith #94 of the Washington Redskins celebrates a tackle against the Buffalo Bills at FedExField on December 20, 2015 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images) /

Re-Signing Players: Preston Smith

To re-sign Preston Smith, or not to re-sign. That is the question. And it’s one that doesn’t have an easy answer.

Washington seems to like Smith. And there is a good reason for that. He puts solid heat on opposing quarterbacks and he is a long, athletic playmaker at times. But that last part is the key part, at times. There are other times that Smith disappears for long stretches and doesn’t make an impact. And the 2018 season saw a lot of the latter version of Smith.

Smith racked up just four sacks during the season. He still generated pressure sometimes, but he wasn’t as effective as he has been in seasons past. And leading up to his free agency, that is causing a lot of questions.

Hot. Redskins 15 best first-round picks of all-time. light

The market for edge rushers is at an all-time high right now, as NFL teams are realizing that having a quality pass rush can transform a defense. Smith seems likely to get paid a sizable amount on the open market. But at the same time, because he’s coming off a down year, might that scare some teams away? Not necessarily. Trent Murphy got a three-year deal worth $7.5 million annually last offseason despite missing the entire previous season with an injury. So, even Smith, coming off a depressing season, will be coveted as a free agent.

We tried this simulation in two different ways. The first time, we re-signed Smith to a deal worth $30 million total over three years. Then, we let him walk to see what his value would be on the open market. In that simulation, he got a deal worth $37.5 million over three years from the Cardinals. So, we technically were getting Smith at a discount. But still, stomaching $10 million per year for a player that sometimes disappears is a lot.

Ultimately, we decided to let Smith walk. The 2019 draft class is loaded with potential edge rush prospects, so we were confident that we could replace Smith adequately. However, we would first have to tackle free agency and fill some of the other holes that we have to avoid having too many needs during the draft.

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