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Redskins Reality Check: Realistic predictions for the team in Week 1 vs. Cardinals

By Tim Payne

LANDOVER, MD - AUGUST 24: Running back Adrian Peterson #26 of the Washington Redskins looks on before playing the Denver Broncos during a preseason game at FedExField on August 24, 2018 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
LANDOVER, MD - AUGUST 24: Running back Adrian Peterson #26 of the Washington Redskins looks on before playing the Denver Broncos during a preseason game at FedExField on August 24, 2018 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images) /
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LANDOVER, MD – AUGUST 24: Running back Chris Thompson #25 and running back Adrian Peterson #26 of the Washington Redskins look on before playing the Denver Broncos during a preseason game at FedExField on August 24, 2018 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
LANDOVER, MD – AUGUST 24: Running back Chris Thompson #25 and running back Adrian Peterson #26 of the Washington Redskins look on before playing the Denver Broncos during a preseason game at FedExField on August 24, 2018 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images) /

1. Reality is, we don’t know what the team is going to get out of AP (or AD).

We could get a future hall-of-famer who just doesn’t have a lot left in the tank like most thought was the case at the end of last season. Or, we could get the AP we glimpsed against the Broncos in week 3 of the preseason, when he averaged over 5yds per carry. The smart money is on the lower end (my fantasy league has him projected at 64.5 yards on 17+ carries). Any card-carrying Redskins fan has a glimmer of hope somewhere in the back of their mind (or at least their heart) that AP can recapture a bit of his former glory and do better than 3.8 ypc for 65 yards.

I’d be thrilled with 22 carries for 100 yards. I’d be disappointed with anything less than 4ypc.

I predict 20 carries for 78 yards and 1 TD. I expect to be underwhelmed.

2.  Reality is, we don’t know who Alex Smith is.

Alex Smith historically is a super-smart, super-professional, super-cautious, super-boring, not-so-super NFL quarterback.  The 2017 version of Alex Smith would constitute a significant upgrade at the position over the QB formerly known as Kurt.  Which Alex do we get?  The one who barely averages more than 1 touchdown per game for his career, or the one who was an MVP candidate last year?  This week, are we going to get the quarterback of a Jay Gruden offense that has never won an opening game during his tenure in Washington, or the quarterback who torched New England last year to open the season?

I’d be thrilled with 25-of-32 for 305 yards, 2 TDs, 0 turnovers, 35 rushing yards, and a win.  I’d be disappointed by less than 250 yards and anything less than a 2- to-1 TD-to-TO ratio to go with a win.

I predict 22-of-32 for 285 yards, 2 TDs, 1 turnover, 40 rushing yards, and a win. I expect to be satisfied.

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