Of all the teams in the NFL in 2018, the Redskins might possess the widest range of possibilities.
On one end of the spectrum, the Washington Redskins offense has the potential to be electric. Alex Smith is coming off a year in which he was borderline elite at the quarterback position. At almost every other offensive position, there is undeniable upside, which the union of Smith and Jay Gruden can unlock. The defense is as strong as it’s ever been under Gruden. There are no gaping holes on the roster.
But on the other side of the coin, there is uncertainty. The Redskins have a lot of moving pieces this year. Pressure will be on younger, more unproven players to compete at important positions; players with natural talent, but no existing track records against NFL competition.
A rare stable constant for the 2018 Washington Redskins is Alex Smith, a quarterback who’s done one thing over the course of his career at a consistent rate: Win. Despite his perceived flaws, and against the cries of all his detractors, Alex Smith wins games. It’s strange; in a sport as complex as football, it’s as simple as that for Smith.
Now it just begs the question: Will Smith bring his winning ways to Washington? Or will the Redskins be the exception to the rule?
The Redskins are one of the NFL’s hardest teams to predict in 2018. They could be competent competitors for the NFC East title, or it could take the pieces another year to mesh. Announcing a prediction, at this point, is still a tall task. But we can address possible scenarios that the Redskins might fulfill in a crucial season.
Worst-case scenario
@ ARI – L
vs IND – W
vs GB – L
@ NO – L
vs CAR – L
vs DAL – W
@ NYG – L
vs ATL – L
@ TB – W
vs HOU – L
@ DAL – L
@ PHI – L
vs NYG – W
@ JAC – L
@ TEN – L
vs PHI – L
Worst-case record: 4-12
This is if basically everything goes wrong.
I do not think that the Washington’s realistic bust potential is this large, but teams sometimes have a way of surprising, achieving feats even outside what was previously known as the realm of possibility.
The Redskins’ realm of possibility is a wide one, and in a worst-case scenario, all of the worst things about the team’s schedule haunt them throughout the year.
In a worst-case scenario, the Redskins find a way to start the season 1-1, losing either to the Colts or Cardinals (Because it’s an away game, the Cardinals get the nod here, but both games aren’t in-the-book victories).
After that start, the Redskins only manage to split the Cowboys and Giants in the NFC East, while being swept by the Eagles, and in a tough late-season stretch, with a bye week far behind them, and four of their last six games taking place on the road, the Redskins lose six of the final seven, going from 3-6 to 4-12 in short notice. It’s very unlikely to happen. But it is within the Redskins’ wide realm of possibilities, if injuries, inconsistency, and lower individual returns all rear their ugly heads.
Best-case scenario
@ ARI – W
vs IND – W
vs GB – W
@ NO – L
vs CAR – W
vs DAL – W
@ NYG – W
vs ATL – W
@ TB – W
vs HOU – L
@ DAL – W
@ PHI – L
vs NYG – W
@ JAC – W
@ TEN – W
vs PHI – W
Best-case record: 13-3
Make no mistake: Washington can be very good in 2018. If we’re looking for the absolute best-case scenario, then this is it.
For all teams, the absolute best-case scenario is a little too rich. There’s a reason it’s called the “absolute best” Teams won’t be predicted to do much better.
While there isn’t a game on the Redskins schedule that the burgundy and gold are surefire winners in, there is no game that the Redskins are destined to lose.
The only three games listed as losses in the best-case scenario are at Philadelphia, versus the Houston Texans, and versus the New Orleans Saints, because even in a best-case scenario, the Redskins will still lose a couple close games.
If a lot of things go right, the offense stays healthy, and scheming stays consistent, Jay Gruden can string together wins as seen above. The Redskins can achieve a double-digit season. Maybe not 13-3, but the potential is there for a pleasant surprise of a season.
Being totally realistic
@ ARI – W
vs IND – W
vs GB – L
@ NO – L
vs CAR – W
vs DAL – W
@ NYG – L
vs ATL – W
@ TB – W
vs HOU – L
@ DAL – L
@ PHI – L
vs NYG – W
@ JAC – L
@ TEN – L
vs PHI – W
Totally realistic record: 8-8
Keep in mind that even the “totally realistic” prediction isn’t totally realistic. At this point, we have no way of knowing how the 2018 season will shake out for the Redskins, or any of the thirteen teams that they play across their sixteen-game slate. The Redskins could be a dominant surprise. Or they could collapse in spectacular fashion. It’s the chaotic nature of the NFL that fans have come to cherish.
The totally realistic prediction might as well be called “wet blanket” realism, because in truth, as explained on the previous slide, there aren’t many games on the Redskins’ schedule that can be confidently presented as losses. The Redskins can compete in almost every matchup they have. But realistically, they won’t win every one. It just doesn’t work out that way, more often than not.
In the realistic prediction, the Redskins start off 2-2. They should be able to handle the Cardinals and Colts respectively, but Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees, both of whom have retooled offenses and strong defenses at their disposal, will be tough to beat.
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Four games of a similar nature include Atlanta, Houston, Jacksonville, and Tennessee. All four of those teams have their drawbacks, but all four are solid squads with areas of immense strength. Atlanta is a well-rounded team with a former MVP at quarterback. Houston is returning a number of stars from injuries, including Deshaun Watson, J.J. Watt, and Whitney Mercilus. Jacksonville’s dominant 2017 defense only got better in 2018, and Tennessee, even with a first-year head coach, has the talent to surprise.
Realistically, Washington is strong enough to steal at least one of those games, with the likeliest being against Atlanta. They’ll be playing at home, not as far removed from their bye week. Tennessee is a close-second, with a first-year coach and a quarterback looking to rebound from a tough 2017 season. But Mariota has Matt LaFleur to coach him up now, and the Redskins will be worn out by Week 16.
Week 17 is an intriguing case. In any other situation, the Redskins would be penciled in as losers against the Philadelphia Eagles. But realistically, the Eagles will have already clinched a playoff spot by then, and realistically, they’ll be resting their starters. With the Eagles playing for nothing, the Redskins can take that one, even if it’s for pride and nothing else.
In a strong NFC, 8-8 won’t get a wild card berth. 9-7 won’t either. If the totally realistic prediction comes to pass, and the Redskins finish at .500, despite improvements made to the roster, then the pieces will only continue to move in 2019. Jay Gruden will be out of a job. But if the Redskins do just a little bit better, then they can be one of the biggest surprises of the 2018 NFL season. Taking all this into account, my prediction is 11-5. But truly anything can happen. What’s yours?