The 2018 quarterback carousel could end up being a doozy. With many big name free agents set to hit the market, there could be a lot of change across the league.
In the modern NFL, there’s no position that’s more important to the success of a team than the quarterback position. Each year, teams that find a franchise quarterback can go from holding a top five pick, to the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Whether it’s through free agency, trades, or the draft, the quarterback is important to find.
In 2018, the quarterback situation across the league has a chance to drastically change. With several big name free agents, including Kirk Cousins, set to hit the open market and a draft class featuring as many as five quarterbacks who will be first round picks, there is a lot of star power available. It’s going to be hard to sort out, as there is now more upside available at the position than ever.
That said, each quarterback needy team across the league will have a decision to make. Do they go for a big splash in free agency? Do they target a player in the draft? Can they even consider doing both? It’s all possible, and no questions will be answered until the season ends and the offseason truly begins.
Still, we’re going to take a look at this quarterback carousel and make projections of our own about where players will land. These scenarios are merely speculation, but they are all based on potential fit and some on rumors that have circulated around the league regarding these players. Without further ado, let’s dive in to the projections. Here’s a look at who will start at quarterback in 2018 for the league’s quarterback needy teams.
Arizona Cardinals: Sam Bradford and Josh Allen
The Cardinals are once again in the market for a veteran starting quarterback. Carson Palmer announced his retirement this offseason and the team isn’t likely to be picking in a spot where they’ll be able to take a true game changer. That said, they will have a chance at landing a project and pairing him with a veteran long term.
I like this mix of quarterbacks for the Cardinals. When healthy, Sam Bradford is a very accurate passer who can really control an offense with a strong ground game. David Johnson is set to return in 2018, and he will be the focal point of the Cardinals offense. Larry Fitzgerald is still undecided about retirement, but should he return, he would be a quality No. 1 option and the Cardinals could add another guy on the free agent market. That would do a lot to help Bradford along as the starter there.
The reason for connecting Bradford to Arizona is their tendency to target proven veterans. While Kirk Cousins could be an option for them, they would have to make some moves in order to get far enough under the cap to be able to afford him. And given their lack of weapons and the sorry state of their offensive line, investing in Cousins doesn’t seem like a great idea.
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Getting Bradford would be ideal, as he would come at a relatively low price and that would allow the team to target receiving help and an offensive tackle in free agency. Targeting Jarvis Landry along with a guy like Cameron Fleming of the Patriots could pay dividends. They would still have to create cap room to do so, but they would get more bang for their buck by eschewing Cousins.
Then, to ensure that the team has a succession option in the event that Bradford gets hurt or regresses, the team could target Josh Allen in the draft. Allen is a very raw prospect in the mold of Jake Locker. He has all the tools for a franchise quarterback and is mobile, but he needs a lot of work before he can be ready to start. He could spend his first year or two learning behind Bradford before being ready to step on the field.
Also, it’s worth noting that the Cardinals may end up targeting a different veteran, Minnesota quarterback to start while Allen develops. In the event that they end up targeting current Vikings offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur as their head coach, Shurmur and Case Keenum have expressed an interest in continuing to work together, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter. If that can’t happen, Bradford is a fine consolation prize and should be a great stopgap option if he can stay on the field.
Buffalo Bills: Andy Dalton
Think of how great of a story this would be. The only reason that the Buffalo Bills were able to make it to the 2018 postseason was because of Andy Dalton. On the final day of the season, the Bengals were trailing the Ravens by three points with time winding down. Facing a fourth-and-12 near midfield, Dalton was going to have to convert in that moment to have a chance at victory. The Bills could only get into the playoffs with a Ravens loss.
On the fourth down, Dalton faded back to pass and found Tyler Boyd streaking open over the middle of the field. Dalton was able to hit Boyd in stride, and the former Pittsburgh Panther did the rest. He got around the last man to beat, and sped into the end zone. The Ravens couldn’t come back, and the Bills made the postseason.
That said, though the win meant little to the Bengals, the Bills mafia made it matter. The team sent the Bengals 1,440 Buffalo wings and Bills fans also donated to Dalton’s charitable foundation. Dalton was impressed and thankful for what the Buffalo fans did, and it’s easy to say why.
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All that said, the Bengals could be heading for an offseason of uncertainty surrounding their quarterbacks. Dalton has three years left on his contract, but there are very few guarantees left. So, Dalton could be walking a tightrope in these three seasons. It’s highly unlikely he’ll be released, but the team could still part ways with him.
The factor that could possibly signal the end of Dalton in Cincinnati would be A.J. McCarron. The former Alabama product is either going to be a restricted or unrestricted free agent this year, pending a court case, but either way, the Bengals will be forced to make a decision about him. If they want to roll with him as the starter, Dalton may end up having to leave town.
What better place for him to land than Buffalo? He’s already bought goodwill in the town and he would certainly be an upgrade over Tyrod Taylor. Dalton isn’t as accurate as Taylor and is responsible for more turnovers, but he has much better downfield ability as demonstrated by the throw to Boyd. For that reason, it’s fun to speculate that Dalton could end up in a Bills uniform. This may sound unlikely, but as we know, nothing is impossible in the NFL.
Cincinnati Bengals: A.J. McCarron
Why would the Bengals look to move on from Andy Dalton? Well, the easiest answer to that question is they may be forced to make a decision as an organization. With A.J. McCarron set to either be a restricted free agent or unrestricted free agent, the notoriously money conscious Bengals will be forced to pick. Do they keep Dalton, or do they keep McCarron?
For those wondering about McCarron’s case, it essentially boils down to an argument about number of years of league service. Per CBS Sports’ Jason La Canfora, McCarron contends that he was kept on the Non-Football Injury (NFI) list longer than he should have been during his rookie year so he wouldn’t accrue a service year. The case has been argued in front of an arbitrator and the ruling will come in February.
This is crucial, as being a restricted free agent would mean that the Bengals can put a first round tender on him. If that was the case, then any team who signs McCarron to an offer sheet that the Bengals don’t match would have to surrender their first round pick to get him. If nobody signed him, that would make him return to the Bengals on a cheap, one year deal. If he was an unrestricted free agent, the Bengals would have to choose to let him play the market or franchise tag him. In that case, if he walked, the team would only get a potential compensatory pick. So, needless to say, this is a big deal.
Ebony Bird
Also, it’s worth noting that before the trade deadline, the Bengals had tried to trade McCarron to the Browns. So, it seems that they think he is expendable. At the same time, it could have been that the second and third round picks they were due to receive were just too enticing to pass up on. And maybe, they wanted to get rid of McCarron and not have to worry about the outcome of the arbitration case. Or maybe they wanted to ensure they would get proper compensation for McCarron in the event that he does become an unrestricted free agent.
So, why would the Bengals keep McCarron over Dalton? Easy. They need change. Dalton has quarterbacked the team for seven years. He’s not going to get this team over the hump. Marvin Lewis was given yet another chance, but now it’s his turn to make a change.
The Bengals should consider trading Dalton to a quarterback needy team, in this case the Bills, for either a first round pick or a couple of seconds. They could probably get it and use that to further rebuild their team. Then, they can sign McCarron to a contract that might be slightly discounted from Dalton’s $16 million deal. It’s not entirely clear if that will happen, but it’s possible.
Lewis likes to stick with personnel he’s had, as the Bengals seem to hate change. But McCarron isn’t that much change. It’s just giving a backup a chance to make is as a starter. And that could work out.
Cleveland Browns: Kirk Cousins
This may not seem like an ideal fit at first. But at a closer glance, it makes a lot of sense. The Browns have been desperate for a franchise quarterback for decades now. Kirk Cousins is an above average quarterback looking for a record breaking deal. Armed with cap space, Cleveland could be the team to get it done.
It’s not often that players of Cousins’ caliber hit the open market. Say what you want about his skill set. He may not be elite, but he has still thrown for over 4,000 passing yards in each of the past three seasons and once led the league in completion percentage back in 2015. Somebody will pay the man what he perceives himself to be worth, especially if a bidding war opens up on the market.
Beyond that, Cousins reportedly has interest in playing for Cleveland. As I said in a recent article, his desire to play in Ohio shouldn’t be too surprising.
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"For Cousins, this move wouldn’t put him on an immediate contender, but it would give him a chance to resurrect the Browns. No quarterback has been able to do that yet, and if he does it, he will become an immediate legend. In other words, get Cleveland to the playoffs, and he’s probably a shoo-in for the ring of honor. Also, Cousins grew up in Illinois and went to college in Michigan. So, perhaps being closer to home and making a boatload of money will end up swaying him to give the Browns a chance."
Cousins leaving D.C. is far from a given. But if he does, it will be to go to a team that needs a franchise quarterback and has the cap space to add one. Those are few and far between right now, so it’s looking more and more likely that Cleveland could end up being a big player in the Cousins sweepstakes.
Denver Broncos: Tyrod Taylor and Sam Darnold
This is another place that Cousins could land, but the Broncos would have to create cap space in order to do that. Right now, they project to have $26 million in open space. That could end up being close to enough, but keep in mind that they also have to set aside some cash for other player signings and draft picks. For that reason, they may have to bow out of the Cousins sweepstakes as they won’t be able to afford all their talent if they get him.
Instead, the Broncos settle on a middling option in the short term and a prospect with immense upside in the long term. The tag team of Tyrod Taylor and Sam Darnold would allow the Broncos to be competitive in the coming years, as their defense is still at the level of a contender.
For those furrowing the brow about the Broncos bringing in Taylor as their quarterback, consider this. The three starters that the Broncos used in 2017 combined for the following numbers. They completed 58.6 percent of their passes for 3,668 yards, 19 touchdowns, and a whopping 22 interceptions. Comparatively, Taylor, in 15 games, completed 62.6 percent of his passes for 2,799 yards, 14 touchdowns, and just four interceptions. On paper, Taylor’s numbers appear to be better, as he is far less prone to mistakes.
On any defensive based football team, the team needs two things from the offense. They have to be able to run the ball and they have to avoid turnovers. In the short term, Taylor could manage the Broncos offense and work as a game manager. He will allow them to move methodically on offense and will hopefully open things up for C.J. Anderson too. Additionally, his mobility will be a plus.
Taylor’s one weakness, as evidenced from his playoff performance, will be his downfield passing ability. Taylor just doesn’t have great downfield accuracy, as his arm strength is decent, but his ability to throw touch passes isn’t great. Often, he tries to float balls downfield. That said, in Denver, he will get a chance to throw to a better receiving corps than what he had in Buffalo. Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are both superior to the Bills squad that featured a banged-up Kelvin Benjamin and rookie Zay Jones in 2017.
Also, Taylor would just be holding down the fort until Darnold is ready. Considering that the Broncos have a top five pick, they really should use it on a quarterback, unless they do get Cousins. Darnold has a lot of upside, but he could stand to improve his accuracy, ball security, and confidence for a year after having a mediocre final season at USC. In fairness to him, he did lose his top receiver, JuJu Smith-Schuster, to the draft and also lost a few linemen. Perhaps that contributed to his regression.
Darnold would likely get a chance to start as soon as the coaching staff thinks he’s ready. Taylor could start until then and afford them an opportunity to make the postseason. That seems like the best course of action for John Elway.
Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck and Jacoby Brissett
I’m only including the Colts on there because there has been some chatter from fans and others that Cousins could be an option for the Colts. That seems entirely improbably. The team already has a couple of quarterbacks that will be able to function well as starters.
Obviously, Andrew Luck is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL when he’s healthy. That said, he missed the entire 2017 season as he dealt with a shoulder injury. This wasn’t a new development for Luck, as he had long been playing through shoulder pain. It’s unclear whether or not Luck will be able to get fully healthy again and play at a high level, but the Colts will give him a chance. Actually, they have to. He has a giant contract and the team really can’t afford to do anything else but give him a chance.
While they wait for Luck to get healthy, the team has Jacoby Brissett. The former New England Patriot was acquired just before the 2017 season, and he fared well in 15 starts. Considering that he had so little time to learn the playbook, Brissett did well to step in right away and find success despite the sorry state of his offensive line. In his first season as a starter, Brissett completed 59 percent of his passes for 3,098 yards, 13 touchdowns, and seven picks. He has developmental upside so if Luck is hurt, he should be given another year as he looks like a potential quality starter moving forward.
In short, the Colts aren’t going to be a team in the market for a top quarterback, let alone another pricey free agent at the position. So, expect them to stand pat, unless they grab a developmental quarterback in the later rounds of the draft.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Blake Bortles
Another team that there have been a lot of rumors about is the Jacksonville Jaguars. At one point this season, it was thought that Blake Bortles was absolutely not the answer. He was too prone to turning the ball over and the Jaguars offense needed to find a more efficient quarterback.
Well, that tone changed after Bortles went on a tear during December. He had a three game stretch that saw him complete 71 percent of his passes for 903 yards and seven touchdowns. He didn’t throw a single interception. That stretch inspired enough confidence in Jaguars owner Shad Khan that he gave Bortles a vote of confidence and said that he was the quarterback for the team moving forward.
That said, Bortles’ performance in the opening round of the playoffs left a lot to be desired. As a passer, Bortles was completely inept while going 12-of-23 for a meager 87 yards and a touchdown. He couldn’t move the ball downfield at all, as his accuracy was a major issue. Though Bortles did use his legs well (88 yards on 10 scrambles), he just doesn’t have the passing skills necessary to lead his team on a deep playoff run. He’s like a worse version of Joe Flacco. He could have a torrid stretch to carry his team, but it’s more likely that he’ll continue at a below average clip.
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If the Jaguars have a change of heart regarding Bortles, they could elect to part ways with him without paying him a dime. The fifth year option on his rookie deal was accepted, but it’s not guaranteed. So, if they change their mind on Bortles after the playoffs, they could elect to go after Cousins or a guy like Alex Smith or Eli Manning as well. Still, the more likely option is to keep Bortles for one more year.
If the team does keep Bortles, they may elect to spend a draft pick on a young player to develop in case Bortles busts out. They probably won’t be in range to select any of the top five passers, unless they trade up, but that is unlikely. So, a Day 2 guy like Mason Rudolph or maybe Riley Ferguson, if they are impressed with either, could make sense. Either way, the Jaguars should add some young talent at the position to challenge Bortles.
Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes
The Chiefs are very likely to move on from Alex Smith this offseason. Smith is, for the second time in his career, likely to give up his starting role to a younger player. First, Colin Kaepernick took over for Smith and led the 49ers on a run to the Super Bowl in San Francisco. Following that, Smith was traded to the Chiefs where he has functioned as a starter for five seasons. Now, after the Chiefs first round exit, it appears that Patrick Mahomes is going to take over for Smith.
The writing has been on the wall for Smith since the team selected Mahomes in the 2017 NFL Draft. The team moved up to the No. 10 pick to grab Mahomes. The Texas Tech gunslinger was considered by some to be the top quarterback prospect in that draft class. He will have a shot at becoming an elite talent. The fact that the Chiefs surrendered so much to go up an get him shows how highly they think of him.
Mahomes did make one appearance for the Chiefs in 2017. He started Week 17 in a meaningless game against the Broncos, and he did pretty well. He completed 22-of-35 passes for 284 yards. He did throw an interception, but it was on an overthrow and could be written off as one rookie mistake. During the contest, Mahomes demonstrated solid arm talent and certainly has the ability to make any throw on the field. That should pay dividends in Kansas City.
With Mahomes at the helm, it’s possible that the Chiefs will be able to get Tyreek Hill more involved as a downfield threat. Hill has game breaking speed, and Mahomes has a very strong and accurate arm. That should allow them to be successful while allowing Smith to move on, in exchange for some draft capital of course.
Minnesota Vikings: Case Keenum and Teddy Bridgewater
The Vikings are in an interesting scenario, as they have three strong starting quarterback candidates on their roster, and they are all free agents. We’ve already had Sam Bradford go to the Arizona Cardinals in this projection, so if that happens, the Vikings will probably try to keep the other two.
Right now, it seems like Case Keenum would be probable to return to the Vikings. I mean, in 14 starts for the team, he is 11-3 and has posted career highs in both passing yards and touchdowns. He is a great fit in Pat Shurmur’s offense, and unless Shurmur leaves, it’s likely that will remain in Minnesota.
The Vikings will probably base negotiations with Keenum off how he performs in the playoffs. The Vikings are playing the Saints in the Divisional Round this weekend. If Keenum plays well, that should justify at least spending the franchise tag on him to guarantee him another year as the team’s starter. Then, if he flounders in 2018, the team can easily move on to a backup option.
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Teddy Bridgewater would qualify as such. Bridgewater was once the starter for the Vikings, but a gruesome knee injury in practice prior to the 2016 season derailed that. It’s unfortunate that occurred, as Bridgewater had been coming off a solid year in 2015 and he appeared to be poised for a breakout in his third season. Instead, he spent a year and a half out before finally making his return this season. He saw limited action in a blowout, but got a huge ovation upon entering the contest.
Because of the lack of action since 2015, Bridgewater will likely be considered as a high upside backup who can compete for a starting job with the right team. It’s possible that another team could make a move for him, but the Vikings could ink him to a short term deal to allow him to get healthy and possibly start if Keenum doesn’t do well. That would be a smart move for Bridgewater, as getting healthy for another year could do wonders for him.
The Vikings really are the top team to watch at quarterback, aside from the Redskins. They will need to make a decision early in the free agent process and if they win a Super Bowl, things will get even more intriguing.
New York Giants: Eli Manning and Josh Rosen
Eli Manning isn’t the quarterback he once was. Anyone who has watched him play this year knows that. His arm strength is pretty much gone and as a result, he can’t get the ball downfield too easily. The Giants need to try and find an upgrade for him, but at the same time, they can afford to keep him on the roster.
While Manning’s downfield ability is greatly downgraded, he is still accurate in the short and intermediate game. He will be able to function as a starter until the new Giants quarterback is ready to take over. That would be Josh Rosen in this case.
Rosen is the best quarterback in the 2018 NFL Draft class. The UCLA product has a great arm, solid accuracy, and he is certainly a clutch quarterback. While some are concerned that he may not be well-liked by all of his teammates, that is a risk that most teams will take. He has a shot to become an elite quarterback, and perhaps making it to the NFL will afford him an opportunity to become a better leader.
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Rosen could probably start right away. But if he needs time to develop, the Giants can start Manning until Rosen is ready. Manning could last another season, especially after he gets some of his top receiving weapons back in 2018. It’s possible that could end up triggering a mini renaissance in Manning as well. Getting back some explosive, reliable pass catchers.
Manning may not be consistent, but he is a Giant through and through. Seeing him on another team is hard to imagine. It’s not impossible, but this kind of scenario would make sense. The trade market for Manning won’t be particularly robust, so why not keep him for another year? He’s only due $33 million in the final two seasons of his deal, so that’s not something that will hinder the Giants too much. Yes, having extra money could help, but doing so at the cost of Manning may not work out.
Right now, the Giants need a leader and a face of the franchise to go with whoever their new coach is. Manning could serve in that role until Rosen is ready. Then, he could become a backup, as it’s not very likely that he would succeed as a starter somewhere else.
New York Jets: Josh McCown and Baker Mayfield
This past season, Josh McCown had the best year of his NFL career. Despite being a 38-year-old journeyman, McCown’s first year with the Jets ended up being a success. Making 13 starts, McCown led the Jets to a 5-8 record, which was significantly better than what they were expected to achieve. Many had pegged them as a potential 0-16 team heading into the season, so winning five games was a big feat for the team.
Despite having no true No. 1 receiver, McCown posted career highs in completion percentage (67), passing yards (2,926), and touchdowns (18). He led an efficient passing offense and demonstrated an ability to hit big completions to move what was merely a mediocre offense.
Near the end of the year, McCown broke his hand and had to miss the final three games of the season. During that process, he helped to coach the other quarterbacks, and he did a good job. It was rumored last offseason that the Browns wanted to bring McCown to coach their quarterbacks, so perhaps that will be in the cards for his future. Expect the Jets to re-sign McCown short term to be their quarterback and to help coach up his successor.
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In this case, McCown’s successor could be Baker Mayfield. Armed with the No. 6 overall pick in the 2018 draft, the Jets are going to be in position to land a top-notch quarterback. Mayfield has really good accuracy and a competitive spirit that cannot be rivaled. His intensity should turn him into a great quarterback, as he will constantly want to work to improve. He’s hungry, and that’s just what the Jets need. A guy who is hungry to win.
For 2018, McCown could take Mayfield under his wing and help turn him into a future starter. After the season, McCown could ride off into the sunset, hand the reigns to Mayfield, and possibly land a coaching job somewhere. Pairing Mayfield with a quarterback like McCown could pay dividends and accelerate his development. Thus, this would be a smart move for the Jets with their top draft choice. And, it would keep them from having to make a big financial investment in Kirk Cousins in hopes that he is the answer.
San Francisco 49ers: Jimmy Garoppolo
I mean, how could the 49ers not keep Jimmy Garoppolo after what he’s achieved since coming to San Francisco? In five career starts as a 49er, Garoppolo is 5-0. After seven starts between San Francisco and New England, he’s 7-0. Not only does he pass the test in terms of numbers, he passes the eye test too.
When watching Garoppolo play, it’s like watching a younger Tom Brady. Garoppolo is methodical in the pocket, has excellent mechanics, and can make any throw on the field. Must like the quarterback who played in front of him in New England, Garoppolo has elite ball placement and can put the ball anywhere he wants it to go. Considering the little amount time he’s had as a starter, it seems like he can only get better as time goes on.
The best throw Garoppolo made this year came against the Jaguars. In the 49ers upset win, Garoppolo rolled out to his left, showcasing great mobility. He got outside and had a defender bearing down on him to take away his scrambling lane. So, Garoppolo adjusted his arm angle and threw side-armed around the defender. He hit his receiver, breaking across the front of the end zone, perfectly in stride to get a touchdown. The throw showed Garoppolo’s greatest strength. His excellent field vision that frequently allows him to find wide open receivers.
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The one area that Garoppolo has to improve upon is his downfield accuracy. Garoppolo hasn’t showed an ability to throw the deep ball yet, but that will come in time. He has everything necessary to make it a non-issue, and he probably will.
The 49ers have to invest in Jimmy G. He’s set to become a free agent, but they will almost certainly franchise him if they can’t agree on a long term deal. Expect him to continue to wear the red and gold, and look out for him in the Super Bowl some day too. If the 49ers add some quality receivers and better interior protection for him, he will become the next elite quarterback in the NFL.
Washington Redskins: Alex Smith and Lamar Jackson
And finally, the Redskins. In this scenario, the Redskins would look to get a veteran stopgap while drafting a true successor to Kirk Cousins. That ended up with the team getting Alex Smith and Lamar Jackson.
Smith is a logical fit in Washington due to his great 50-26 regular season record and his ability to lead a functional, methodical offense. He’s not the same type of player that Cousins is, his arm isn’t as strong, but he rarely makes mistakes, and that could benefit the Redskins. Considering that Smith is on a deal that pays $18 million per year, that could end up being a solid replacement at a cost that wouldn’t be prohibitive of adding free agents in other areas of need.
The one question about this move would be, what will it take to acquire Smith? He’s not a free agent, so the Chiefs will try to trade him. In this scenario, the teams that would be most interested in Smith are the Redskins, the Broncos, and the Cardinals. Since the Broncos are in the Chiefs division, they can be ruled out. So, the Redskins would have to outbid the Cardinals for him. In all likelihood, a Day 2 pick in 2018 or 2019 would get the job done. But if it becomes a bidding war, the Redskins are better off signing whichever veteran is left on the market when all the big money names are gone. But in this scenario, they do land Smith.
Then, in the draft, the Redskins would only draft a first round guy if they are in position to do so. In this projection, they were in place to choose Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen, but I give the edge to the former. Allen is a raw prospect who will need a lot of coaching to be a quality player. Jackson needs to be coached, but he has more explosive, game changing ability and is a dual threat quarterback. Some will shudder at the thought of him being the next RG3, but he’s a different player. Jackson has a great attitude and will work hard to become a strong pro.
Still, Jackson will have to work to bulk up a bit to avoid injuries, and to improve his accuracy. His bowl game demonstrated his tendency to overthrow receivers, and he will have to work on that. Playing behind Smith, he will have at least a year to work that out until he’s ready to take over. This would potentially set the Redskins up for long-term success.
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At the end of the day, these are all just projections. But, the moves make sense for all the teams. And for the Redskins, if they end up with Smith and Jackson after losing Cousins, that wouldn’t be a bad consolation prize at all. We will have to keep an eye on the quarterback market as more news and rumors come out about each player involved.