Kirk Cousins’ return to the Washington Redskins is looking like a true coin flip at this point in time. If he does leave, Alex Smith could end up being an option for the team.
On Saturday afternoon, the Kansas City Chiefs lost to the Tennessee Titans in heartbreaking fashion. In the first round of the 2018 NFL playoffs, the Chiefs held a 21-3 lead on the Titans heading into the half. They put up zero points in the second half and blew the game, falling by a final score of 22-21. The disappointing loss for the Chiefs likely spells the end of the Alex Smith era in Kansas City.
To be clear, Smith was not the reason that the Chiefs lost this game at all. In fact, he had a solid performance, completing 24-of-33 passes for 264 yards and a couple of scores. His team was also guilty of brutal drops that could have further improved that stat line. Smith was efficient and accurate as he has always been. But without Travis Kelce on the field, he couldn’t do enough to generate an offensive attack and the team suffered as a result.
The reason that Smith is likely to leave the Chiefs in the offseason is the presence of Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City and Andy Reid traded up to get the quarterback with the No. 10 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. The Texas A&M gunslinger figures to be a very good quarterback at the NFL level, and he was actually our top rated quarterback prospect heading into the 2017 draft.
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Mahomes saw action for the first time in his career against the Denver Broncos in Week 17. The game was meaningless for the Chiefs playoff seeding, so they gave him a chance to win. He had a solid outing, showcasing his strong arm and making a lot of nice downfield throws. Yes, it was against a Broncos team who was also playing for nothing, but still. The rookie had a good showing and with another offseason, he could be ready to start the 2018 season.
This is nothing new for Smith. He was benched during the San Francisco 49ers 2012 Super Bowl run by then second year man Colin Kaepernick. The facts are simple. The two younger passers had more upside than Smith. For that reason, Kaepernick was given a chance to start and Mahomes likely will be too.
With that said, the Chiefs will probably have to move on from Smith following the season. If they’re planning on starting Mahomes, there’s no reason to keep Smith on the roster, especially at his $18 million salary. While that’s a bargain on the current quarterback market, it’s too much to pay to a backup. The team could release him with relatively little dead cap space, but it’s far more likely that a quarterback needy team would trade for him.
The question I posit now is this. Why not the Redskins? They could end up being an ideal place for the quarterback in the event that Kirk Cousins leaves the team. That said, there are also potential drawbacks. But here’s a look at why Smith could fit in well with the Redskins.
The case for Alex Smith
There’s no denying that Smith has been one of the better passers in the AFC this past season. And for the past five years really. During his tenure in Kansas City, Smith has posted an excellent 50-26 record during the regular season and has qualified for the postseason four times, twice winning the division title. He has terrific accuracy and that is really his calling card.
Since Smith’s first season with Jim Harbaugh in San Francisco, the quarterback’s ability to throw accurate passes has been among the best in the league. Over the past seven years, he has completed 65 percent of his passes and his ball placement on short to medium length throws has been incredibly precise. Additionally, he generally avoids costly interceptions and since joining Kansas City, he has maintained a TD-to-INT ratio just above 3-to-1. That is typically a fantastic number among NFL passers.
The list of accolades regarding Smith’s numbers go on. He’s made two Pro Bowls. He’s coming off a season that tied his career high in yards per attempt at an even 8.0. But more importantly, Smith is a great leader on the field and in the community. He knows how to run an offense and is a good decision maker both throwing the ball and running the ball. He rarely makes a massive mistake, and that’s something that Redskins fans know can hurt.
FanSided
It’s also worth noting that the torrid pace that Smith started the 2017 campaign on made him an early favorite for MVP. He came out and helped the Chiefs defeat the heavily favored New England Patriots who were, at the time, considered a team that could potentially go 16-0. The Chiefs quickly quashed that conversation topic before beating the Philadelphia Eagles, who finished 13-3. Throughout all this, Smith played well and really looked like an upper level NFL quarterback.
For the Redskins, Smith could come in and be a stopgap starter. In the event that Cousins does decide to walk and the Redskins are looking to replace him, Smith could end up being a solid option. It’s clear that he knows how to lead a team. He can transition seamlessly between offenses as evidenced by his trade from San Francisco to Kansas City. And, most importantly, it’s probably that he would be better than the top options available on the free agent market.
While the free agent market is set to have a number of veteran quarterbacks on it this year, the likelihood of finding a starter of more than a year or two is unlikely. The most intriguing options, save for Cousins, are the trio of Minnesota Vikings, Case Keenum, Teddy Bridgewater, and Sam Bradford, who may hit the market. None are proven commodities like Smith, so trying to use one to replace Cousins may not go as well as some would hope.
For that reason and the fact that Smith has talent, it would probably behoove the Redskins to give the Chiefs a call and inquire about Smith. If they lose Cousins, he could be used as a potential starter for the next few years. Smith is only 33, and he will continue to be an effective starter for at least a few more seasons given the way he plays the game. If the team is asking for a third or fourth rounder for him, then making the move could make some sense.
The case against Alex Smith
Of course, there are also a number of reasons the Redskins shouldn’t go after Smith. The first, and most important, is that his postseason record is not very good. In his career, he’s 2-5 as a postseason starter, with his last win coming in 2015 against the Brian Hoyer led Houston Texans. Frankly, Smith just doesn’t have the skill set necessary to be a great postseason quarterback.
While Smith’s accuracy and decision making are both strengths, his major weakness is his ability to make downfield throws. This past year was actually one of his best in recent memory, but as the season went on, his arm ability mildly eroded and that prevented the Chiefs from running the vertical offense that had been a smash success for them in the first month of the season.
In the event that Smith is on the team, the Redskins would run a more conservative, methodical form of offense. While he doesn’t make many mistakes, he doesn’t make a lot of big, downfield, game changing plays on his own. A methodical offense won’t work entirely if the team doesn’t have a strong enough defense, as the Redskins have to be able to outscore their opponents given that they are still trying to patch some holes on defense.
There are three major points aside from Smith’s talent that are worth considering as well. The first is whether or not he’s a major upgrade over Cousins. While Smith is a regular season winner, he doesn’t have the same arm strength as Cousins. He’s a better decision maker, but less dynamic. That can get a team to the postseason and maybe grab a win, but it’s never going to be enough for a Super Bowl. So, do you really want to pay $18 million just to lose in the first round?
Also, Smith is still under contract with the Chiefs, so they may have a high asking price for him. A quarterback desperate team, like the Cleveland Browns, could attempt to trade for him and they may be willing to surrender a second rounder for him. After all, they have a boatload of draft capital on their hands and current GM John Dorsey actually traded for Smith when he was the Kansas City GM. That’s something to keep an eye on, as paying a high price for a league average quarterback probably isn’t a wise move.
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And finally, the most important point of all. If Smith, now 33, comes in and gets the Redskins to the postseason, it could lull the front office into a sense of complacency. The team wants to win a Super Bowl obviously, but if Smith can continually get the team to the playoffs for a few years, the front office could be happy with that.
Much like the Chiefs waited to select a successor, the Redskins decision makers could put off acquiring a potential successor for two or even three years. That wouldn’t be a great move, especially considering that the 2018 NFL Draft is full of potentially solid prospects who could fit well with the team. The Redskins need a developmental guy, and it’s unlikely that they would select one if Smith was in town and here to stay, especially if they used a Day 2 draft pick to get him.
For those reasons, Smith wouldn’t necessarily be as great a fit on paper as he currently may seem.
Verdict
So, the case for Smith is a strong one, but the case against him is equally as strong. It’s hard to know whether or not the team would have interest in him, or if their interest would even be in time, given that the Cousins situation is not yet solved.
One thing is certain. The Redskins cannot rely on Smith to get them to the Super Bowl. If he’s brought in, they can’t give up too valuable of a draft pick and they can’t sign him to an extension that would financially harm the team. Those are two stipulations that absolutely cannot be negotiated.
Additionally, the team would have to at least look at the quarterbacks in the 2018 draft class and see if any would be worthy of being Smith’s potential successor. They wouldn’t necessarily have to select one, but if they think a talented quarterback would be available with one of their picks, they’d have to pull the trigger to bring some young talent into the quarterback room.
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At the end of the day, this is all just a speculative possibility. The Chiefs probably want to unload Smith while the Redskins could want to bring in a new quarterback if Cousins leaves. The match would make sense in the right circumstances but for now, it’s merely an early offseason idea.