What scenarios could come to fruition for the Washington Commanders' talented group of wide receivers during the upcoming 2023 campaign?
The Washington Commanders' top three wide receivers from 2022 – Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel – all return this season. They are the only certainties at the position with less than a month to go before the season begins.
Behind them, three receivers from last year’s squad – Dyami Brown, Dax Milne, and Kyric McGowan – are competing with seven newcomers to fill out the rest of the roster. The Commanders are likely to keep six or seven receivers on their final roster.
Let’s take a quick look at the players most likely to make the team and offer up some scenarios for each. And just to mix things up today, let’s do it in order of height.
Kazmeir Allen - Commanders WR/KR
- Height: 5-foot-8
Kazmeir Allen is the Washington Commanders' smallest, quickest receiver. The undrafted free agent from UCLA stands his best chance of making the team as a kick returner.
Several of the bubble receivers are in that boat, so he is probably in direct competition with Dax Milne and Kyric McGowan. If Allen sticks, he might find his way onto the field running special gadget plays the way former Kansas City Chiefs receiver De’Anthony Robinson once did.
BEST-CASE: Allen makes the roster as Washington's primary punt returner. Averages 10 yards per return with no fumbles and gets at least one splash play on offense, either running or receiving.
WORST-CASE: Washington goes in a different direction on returns and there is no spot for Allen. He probably still sticks on the Commanders' practice squad, but that is not a sure thing.
REALISTIC-CASE: I think Allen does make the team with a punt return average of more like eight yards per return. Doesn’t see the field on offense unless there are simultaneous injuries to both Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel.
Jahan Dotson - Commanders WR
- Height: 5-foot-11
The Washington Commanders are expecting big things from the 2022 first-round draft pick. Jahan Dotson was productive as a rookie, and he should only improve with a more creative offense and a stronger arm at quarterback.
BEST: Being better than Chris Olave, the receiver they could have had last year. Maybe not in total catches – but close in yards and better with touchdowns.
WORST: Being worse than Chris Olave.
REALISTIC: Being the same as Chris Olave. Not a bad thing whatsoever.
Curtis Samuel - Commanders WR
- Height: 5-foot-11
Curtis Samuel is signed through 2023 and he will be 27 years old when the season begins. No one will be more motivated to perform. He is playing for what will likely be his last big contract.
BEST: Replicating his final two seasons with the Carolina Panthers, securing 1,000 yards combined receiving and rushing.
WORST: Samuel, like Dotson, has a floor that is only worrisome because of the inexperienced Commanders quarterback. His receiving floor is 35 catches for 450 yards and no touchdowns.
That would be disappointing, but the even worse scenario would be if the Commanders cannot unlock his rushing ability. Samuel shouldn’t be running a lot but his yards per carry should be hovering around six. If it’s under five again, that’s a problem.
REALISTIC: I suspect Dotson will emerge as the Commanders' clear second receiving option this year, and that Eric Bieniemy will spread the ball around to a lot of other pass catchers the way he did in Kansas City. That will hurt Samuel's totals – to the tune of 45 catches - but the yardage and touchdown numbers should be strong. 600 yards, 4 scores receiving, and another rushing.
Kyric McGowan - Commanders WR
- Height: 5-foot-11
Kyric McGowan was the only new undrafted free-agent receiver to make the Washington Commanders last year. He was on the practice squad for most of the season. When he did play, it was almost exclusively on special teams.
BEST: McGowan’s only path to the roster is as a kick returner and special teams ace. He has an outside chance, but he would have to climb over several more likely options. Being the team’s primary returner is his best-case scenario.
WORST: No roster. No practice squad.
REALISTIC: Washington has brought in a lot of talented receivers this off-season. I don’t see McGowan beating out enough of them to stick around, but he impressed coaches and maybe he could do it again and hang on the practice squad. Unfortunately, I suspect he’ll lose out in the numbers game.
Dax Milne - Commanders WR
- Height: 6-foot-0
Dax Milne turned a few heads when he beat out Steven Sims and Isaiah Wright for a roster spot in 2021. It wasn’t a shock, since he was a seventh-round draft pick, whereas Sims and Wright were undrafted. But though he has been a steadier punt returner than the aforementioned duo, he has shown very little as a receiver or as a returner to argue his case.
BEST: Milne retains his punt return job and improves his average to eight yards per return. He develops as a serviceable slot receiver and hauls in 20 balls playing mostly in a relief role.
WORST: He loses his punt return job to someone like Kazmeir Allen. And then ends up losing a battle with a couple of the new receivers for a spot on the practice squad.
REALISTIC: I think Milne’s Sundays in D.C. are over. He certainly has a chance at sticking around on the practice squad.
Dyami Brown - Commanders WR
- Height: 6-foot-0
There was a moment early last season against the Tennessee Titans when it appeared Dyami Brown had arrived. He caught two touchdowns from Carson Wentz – a 75-yard twisting grab and an even better 30-yard one-handed catch against tight coverage. And then – nothing.
There is some hope that being reunited with college quarterback Sam Howell will awaken the serious potential of Brown as a deep threat. Time will tell as to whether or not this faith is repaid.
BEST: Brown becomes the Washington Commanders' home run hitter. He may only catch 25 balls, but he will average 18 yards per reception and will score six touchdowns.
WORST: Brown loses a training camp battle against similar players Byron Pringle and Mitchell Tinsley, finding himself a casualty of the numbers game. Washington briefly inks him to the practice squad, but another team will scoop him up at some point.
REALISTIC: There’s a chance Brown doesn’t make the final roster, but I don’t think that’s very likely. He will stick around and get another year to prove he can make plays.
The fact that Howell teamed with him at North Carolina may help some, but far more important is the fact that the signal-caller can throw deep. That was never a strength of Taylor Heinicke.
Brown’s big game against the Titans came when Carson Wentz was playing quarterback. I just haven’t seen enough to be confident he will be a consistent threat, so I suspect he’ll catch 20 balls with 13.5 yards per reception and two touchdowns.
Terry McLaurin - Commanders WR
- Height: 6-foot-0
Terry McLaurin is the best player on the Washington Commanders' offense. That's not in question anymore.
He is the team leader. He has displayed that from his earliest days here and continues to do so at Washington's training camp. McLaurin's played with subpar quarterbacks on mediocre offenses and yet consistently produced.
BEST: 90 catches for 1,300 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. McLaurin also earns second-team All-Pro honors.
WORST: McLaurin will produce. The real question is whether Sam Howell will.
If Howell struggles, McLaurin could dip to 65 catches for 850 receiving yards and three touchdowns. And if so, he only makes the Pro Bowl as an alternate.
REALISTIC: Just short of the best-case. Howell won’t be perfect, but McLaurin will be as close as you can come with 83 catches for 1,200 receiving yards and seven touchdowns. Not enough for All-Pro consideration – but he makes the Pro Bowl again.
Byron Pringle - Commanders WR
- Height: 6-foot-1
I am very happy the Washington Commanders signed Byron Pringle. He has always stepped up in big-game situations. In his final year playing under Eric Bieniemy with the Kansas City Chiefs, he caught 42 balls, and more than 75 percent of them resulted in first-downs or touchdowns.
Pringle represents a significant upgrade over what the Commanders got out of their backup receivers last season.
BEST: Pringle starts a couple of games as the top three deal with minor injury issues, but is clearly established as the fourth wideout. Catches 40 balls for 500 receiving yards and 30 first downs.
WORST: Washington decides to go with younger players like Dyami Brown and Mitchell Tinsley. Pringle is released in the final round of cuts.
REALISTIC: Those younger players could knock him out, but I don’t think it will happen. Pringle is 29 years old and has another year or two as a high-quality backup. Maybe not 40 catches and 30 first-downs worth – but 30 and 20 could be possible.
Mitchell Tinsley - Commanders WR
Every year, a receiver leaps out during training camp. So far this season, it has been Mitchell Tinsley.
If he can keep up his strong play, Tinsley has a shot at the final roster. When they initially signed the wideout, I wrote that when I saw him play at Penn State, it was clear he had a knack for getting open and was very good with the ball in his hands. He has also shown excellent hands in camp.
Playing with Bailey Zappe at Western Kentucky before transferring, Tinsley had an extraordinary 2021.
BEST: See Pringle. Tinsley can do a lot of the same things.
WORST: Bieniemy knows Pringle. Ron Rivera knows Brown. Both are ahead of Tinsley right now, and I don’t know if the Commanders keep all three with Marcus Kemp, Kazmeir Allen, and Dax Milne able to offer specific special teams help.
Tinsley may get edged out. If so, he’s a definite for the practice squad.
REALISTIC: He has to show consistency and make a couple of plays throughout the preseason, but I like Tinsley’s chances right now. I think he shows he can perform on special teams and winds up as the sixth receiver. Gets a few chances late in the campaign to show what he can do on offense.
Marcus Kemp - Commanders WR
- Height: 6-foot-4
Marcus Kemp was one of the early free-agent signees this off-season. The Washington Commanders lost Cam Sims to free agency, and he would seem to be a virtual carbon copy replacement.
Sims is slightly bigger – Kemp is slightly faster, but physically, they are virtually identical. Kemp has also been an excellent special teams player throughout his career, but unlike Sims, he has never shown much of anything as a receiver.
BEST: Kemp makes the final roster and teams with Jeremy Reaves and Percy Butler to form a formidable kick coverage squad. The Commanders end up with a top-five coverage team league-wide.
WORST: Washington decides that Kemp is a luxury item they cannot afford to keep with so many promising pass catchers in play. He is cut but ends up on the practice squad.
REALISTIC: Kemp’s likelihood of making the roster may depend on who ends up returning punts. If Kazmeir Allen or Dax Milne wins that job, I don’t think Washington keeps a second receiver who is primarily a special teamer.
If the Commanders decide to go with a receiver who will get offensive snaps – Jahan Dotson or Byron Pringle – then there may be room for Kemp. Right now, if I had to bet, I’d say he is headed for the practice squad.
THE REST
Zion Bowers, Jalen Sample, and Brycen Tremayne would not seem to have a chance at the final roster right now. Sample and Tremayne are both very tall receivers, and the latter may have a leg up on the others because he played under Washington’s new quarterbacks coach Tavita Pritchard at Stanford. That might give him a better shot at the practice squad.
The Commanders look to have the strongest group of receivers it's had in many years with three playmakers at the top, an excellent backup in Pringle, and great potential in Dyami Brown and Mitchell Tinsley.
A lot of their success will be dependent on how well Sam Howell plays, and a lot of that will be dependent on how well the offensive line plays. You can never evaluate receivers in a vacuum.
Still, it’s looking good.