What are some potential scenarios facing the offensive linemen expected to make the Washington Commanders roster in 2023?
I recently wrote a series of pieces comparing the Washington Commanders' position groups to the rest of the NFC East. I got a lot of comments from people (mostly Dallas Cowboys fans) along these lines: “You don’t know what the hell you’re talking about.”
Then there would typically be a line about how Matt Waletzko was destined for Canton and a remark about my parentage. All in all, pretty much par for the course.
I won’t try to go into lots of detail on other teams. I admit that I only see them from a distant, outsider perspective. But I do watch the Commanders - a lot. So today, I’ll begin the annual best/worst/realistic expectation series of the various position groups.
We’ll begin with the most important group on the roster this year apart from quarterback – which is always the most important group on any NFL roster, regardless of the year. The offensive line.
The Commanders last won the NFC East in 2020, largely on the differential between their offensive line and the rest. That season, both the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas suffered debilitating injuries across their protection, and the New York Giants were just plain awful.
Now, the Eagles and the Cowboys are relatively healthy and the Giants have completely rebuilt. The Commanders, meanwhile, have allowed their offensive line to deteriorate.
Washington is now decidedly behind the other teams in the NFC East. If this year’s edition can begin to show improvement, that will go a long way toward making the Commanders competitive.
So what are the realistic expectations for this year’s line, as currently constructed. We’ll go alphabetically:
Saahdiq Charles - Commanders OL
There have been some positive reports about Saahdiq Charles this off-season. With the recent release of Andrew Norwell, he should be first in line to take over as the team’s left guard.
Charles is entering his fourth season with the Washington Commanders and is still just 24 years old. This is a make-or-break season for the former Alabama lineman.
BEST CASE: Charles starts 17 games at left guard and grades out higher than either Norwell or Trai Turner did in 2022.
WORST CASE: Washington pulls the plug on yet another failed draft pick and Charles does not make the final 53-man roster. Something that is unlikely but cannot be dismissed after yet more injury woes.
REALISTIC CASE: I am not sold on Charles. He was so young when he entered the league and it was apparent he would need several years to develop. But it hasn’t happened yet.
We have barely seen flashes. I hope I’m wrong about this, but I see one final season as a backup and emergency starter, and then the end of his time in Washington.
Sam Cosmi - Commanders OL
I wrote last year that the development of Sam Cosmi was the most important issue for this team – besides the development of a quarterback. The drafting of two linemen this year changes that a bit – but only by degree.
Cosmi’s development is still crucial. You simply can’t miss on a second-round offensive lineman when you are trying to rebuild a weak line. He is likely to play right guard this year.
BEST: Cosmi stays healthy. Plays 1,000 snaps. Grades out as the Washington Commanders' best guard since Brandon Scherff.
WORST: This is tricky because the worst-case scenario here is not that Cosmi gets hurt again. It is that he stays healthy but proves to be a mediocre player. The fact is, he has never been on the field consistently enough for us to know what he can really do.
REALISTIC: He stays healthy enough to play more than 65 percent of the team’s offensive snaps. Cosmi has not cracked 50% in either of his first two seasons.
The extended playing time and maturity lead to some modest improvement – enough so that Cosmi is seen as the unquestioned starting right guard for 2024.
Braeden Daniels - Commanders OL
Like Saahdiq Charles, Braeden Daniels is a fourth-round pick who played offensive tackle in college and may be asked to shift inside to guard in the pros. Unlike the veteran, he enters the league a couple of years older and with a lot more college experience.
BEST: Daniels proves he can play tackle. He replaces aging veteran Cornelius Lucas as the Commanders’ swing tackle this season, and is starting at one of the two spots by 2024.
WORST: Daniels can’t play tackle. He joins the logjam of unproven bodies at guard and does not earn enough time to really form any opinion about him this season.
REALISTIC: I’m 50/50 on this.
I think Daniels might stick at tackle. But overwhelming evidence from this team’s recent past suggests that is not a realistic expectation.
Therefore, I feel he ends up playing mostly inside this season. But Daniels might prove to be a pretty good guard and could be the starter on the left side by mid-season.
Nick Gates - Commanders OL
One of two major free-agent veterans the Washington Commanders signed to try and rebuild the line. Nick Gates can play both center and guard. He has essentially missed two out of his five seasons due to injury. When healthy, he is a solid interior lineman.
BEST: Gates plays 1,000 snaps combined at center and guard. Just where he'll spend the majority of time is dependent on the development of other players.
WORST: Another season-ending injury. Gates’ personal history, and Washington’s recent history in this position, make this a looming threat.
REALISTIC: I think the best case is also a realistic case for Gates. Maybe he doesn’t make it to 1,000 snaps, but he stays mostly healthy and helps lock down the interior of the line.
By the end of the season, I think that he will be lining up at guard.
Tyler Larsen - Commanders C
Tyler Larsen has played well as a fill-in center for the Commanders over the last two seasons. He has also ended both years on the injured/reserve and just turned 32 years old. That isn’t too old for a center, but players rarely discover better health once they move beyond 30.
BEST: Larsen makes the roster and plays occasionally as the quality backup he has proven to be. The best case for Washington is that he does not make the roster because he has been supplanted by younger players.
WORST: Another injury. That would likely end his career.
REALISTIC: I don’t think Larsen is going to make the roster unless Gates is injured before the season or rookie Ricky Stromberg seriously underperforms in training camp. I think the Commanders would love to stash him on the practice squad, but once other teams begin suffering losses, he will be snapped up by someone else.
Charles Leno Jr. - Commanders OT
BEST: Starts at left tackle all 17 games. Wiins the Walter Payton Man of the Year Award.
WORST: Leno's age - he turns 32 years old this season - begins catching up and he suffers some nagging injuries which lead to diminished production. It reaches the point where the Washington Commanders begin auditions for his replacement from the likes of Braeden Daniels and one or two undrafted free agents.
REALISTIC: Leno remains a dependable starter but production dips to the tune of a combined 15 penalties and sacks allowed. And no Walter Payton award.
Cornelius Lucas - Commanders OT
BEST: See Tyler Larsen.
WORST: With a new offensive coordinator and a new offensive line coach, it is not entirely clear what Washington will value in a tackle. Lucas has a limited skill set, but he remains a pretty good pass-protector who can line up on either side.
However, Lucas doesn’t move well, and he may not find a place on this roster if that is a requirement under the new offensive regime.
REALISTIC: Lucas sticks around one more year as a swing tackle while the team assesses its younger options for the future.
Chris Paul - Commanders OL
I know several people who are extremely high on Chris Paul. That gives me some hope, though I do not share their unbridled optimism.
BEST: Paul emerges as Brandon Scherff’s successor at right guard and remains there for the next decade.
WORST: Kili Lefotu – the last guard the Washington Commanders drafted in the seventh round. Presumably without the arrest record.
REALISTIC: I think Paul has some talent and plays hard. I also think his technique still has a long way to go. In his one start last season, he was far too upright, but he was also all over the field.
Paul will remain a developmental player for at least one more season – a depth piece at guard whose development will be a good marker for how effective Washington’s offensive line coaches are performing.
Ricky Stromberg - Commanders C
Ricky Stromberg, Braeden Daniels, and Sam Cosmi are the future. At least two of them have to perform. My money is on the third-round pick in 2023 having the best chance of developing into a first-rate player.
BEST: Stromberg takes over as starter by Week 8 and remains there for well beyond 2030.
WORST: Barring injury, I don’t think there is a dire worst case for Stromberg. He’ll be good. The biggest question for me is whether he will be as good as John Michael Schmitz - drafted by the New York Giants - because the Commanders could have had him in the second round.
REALISTIC: Stromberg gets a few starts late in the season and gives a strong indication that he will be Washington’s center as soon as 2024.
Andrew Wylie - Commanders OT
Andrew Wylie is a grinder. After going undrafted in 2017, he shuttled through three teams before landing with the Kansas City Chiefs. In six seasons there, he was part of two Super Bowl winners, starting at right tackle for last year’s champions.
BEST: Wylie starts at right tackle all 17 games. Pro Football Focus rating of 65.
WORST: Wylie starts at right tackle all 17 games. PFF rating of 60.
REALISTIC: Wylie starts at right tackle all 17 games. PFF rating of 62.5.
Commanders OL - The rest
The Washington Commanders currently have six other linemen in camp. Other than veteran tackle Trent Scott, they have almost no NFL experience.
Scott probably becomes the emergency fill-in if the team suffers multiple injuries at tackle. Even though they would try college tackles Saahdiq Charles and Sam Cosmi first.
Among the others, UDFA Mason Brooks has won some fans this off-season. He has the versatility to line up inside or outside, though I suspect he is destined to be a guard. He may see some call-up time on a couple of Sundays.
I think Washington likes Nolan Laufenberg at guard and veteran Jaryd Jones-Smith at tackle as practice squad stashes. They most likely don’t get elevated to the roster unless there are multiple injuries across the line.
And finally, the Commanders aren’t done. They will almost certainly continue tinkering by adding another player or two before the start of the season.
They will lose players to injuries, and other teams will release intriguing prospects. None are likely to move the needle in any significant way.
There are still unsigned players who will draw interest – guard Dalton Risner is the most attractive name, but he is unlikely to come here. So it remains a work in progress.
Realistically, I expect to see improvement, especially from some of the recent draft picks, though, at least in 2023, Washington will have the weakest offensive line in the NFC East.