I only do two mock drafts per year. To be more precise, I publish two mock drafts per year. I do hundreds of them, both for fun and to gauge where players are rising and falling on draft boards. If you do enough of them, you develop a sense of how long you can wait for certain targets.
Of course, one unexpected curveball selection or trade can throw all of your plans into the garbage and you must adjust on the fly. But for the most part, consensuses are building around where targets are likely to go.
I do my first mock at the end of the previous season to establish a baseline. I wait until shortly before the actual draft - after pro days and interviews galore - to do my final draft. Some mock drafts attempt to predict what a given team will do. Others simply act per what the writer thinks would be best. For the record, I do the latter. This is what I would do if I were Adam Peters.
I followed three principles in this mock. First and foremost, though I do have Caleb Williams rated first among quarterbacks, I do not see enough separation between the next four prospects to rule out trading down. For the record, I think it is almost guaranteed that Peters holds onto the second pick. I would do that too if the right trade offer didn’t materialize.
Second principle: I think there is one - and only one - can’t-miss prospect in this draft.
Final principle: The Washington Commanders are in desperate need of more physical players. Given Peters' pedigree coming out of San Francisco, I think he was always going to be looking for elite physical talent, but it is even more important for this team than for most.
Due to poor selections in recent years, this roster simply is not big enough or strong enough to compete at the highest levels. That has to change. I used Pro Football Network’s tool for this exercise. I accepted two trade offers, and ended up with 10 total selections, along with one pick in the 2025 draft. Here are my picks.
Commanders draft Joe Alt
- Offensive Tackle | Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- Round No. 1 | No. 3 overall
The exact trade offer I wanted arrived.
The New England Patriots offered picks No. 3, 34, and 68, along with their first-round pick in 2025, to move up one spot to No. 2. I also gave them my second-rounder - No. 40 overall.
New England took Drake Maye. This left the Washington Commanders with Jayden Daniels still on the board. But I did not take him. I felt that with the increased draft capital I received, I would be able to get one of my top five quarterbacks. As previously mentioned, I don’t see enough distinction between the quarterbacks from 2-5 to turn down a good offer.
Instead, I took the surest thing in this year’s draft at a position of desperate need. Caleb Williams or Marvin Harrison Jr. may develop into better players than Joe Alt, but if you were placing a bet on who is most likely to wind up in the Pro Football Hall of Fame from this class, my money would be on the Notre Dame prospect.
He is your cornerstone left tackle for the next decade, regardless of who the Commanders have at quarterback.
Commanders draft Michael Penix Jr.
- Quarterback | Washington Huskies
- Round No. 2 | No. 34 overall
If I had to move up into the first round to get Michael Penix Jr., I would have done so. But it played out just as I wanted here.
Penix has injury issues, and he is not the dynamic runner that Jayden Daniels is. But he has a cannon for an arm and displays stand-out leadership qualities.
He improved throughout his college career and came up big almost every time he had to during his senior season. Is Penix a sure thing? Of course not. But neither is Daniels, Drake Maye, or J.J. McCarthy for that matter.
Penix has virtually the same chance of developing into an elite player in the pros, especially with the offensive line the Commanders intend to put in front of him.
Commanders draft Kingsley Suamataia
- Offensive Tackle | BYU Cougars
- Round No. 2 | No. 36 overall
Kingsley Suamataia is just 21 years old and already shows the physical traits of an elite mature athlete. He has a prototypical size at 6-foor-6 and 325 pounds. The offensive tackle has speed, burst, and raw power. And he is only getting better.
Suamataia may not be able to take over the starting right tackle spot immediately. That would be fine with Andrew Wylie still on the roster. The BYU prospect can be coached up to speed over the first half of the season. By then, he should join Joe Alt as the Washington Commanders' bookend tackle tandem for the foreseeable future.
Commanders draft Roman Wilson
- Wide Receiver | Michigan Wolverines
- Round No. 3 | No. 67 overall
There are a lot of high-end prospects at wide receiver in this year’s draft. Unless you are drafting one in the first dozen or so picks, Roman Wilson may be the best available.
Wilson is not an overly physical receiver, but he boasts exceptional speed and runs excellent routes. Most importantly, he seems to have a knack for making big plays. His crucial touchdown in Michigan’s college football playoff semi-final win over Alabama came not long after he had committed a silly penalty that seriously damaged his team’s prospects. The fact that he came back with a huge play later typifies the kind of player Washington would be getting.
Hopefully, the Michigan product will be able to co-exist with Ohio State alum Terry McLaurin, because they have an awful lot in common.
Commanders draft Brandon Dorlus
- Edge Rusher | Oregon Ducks
- Round No. 3 | No. 68 overall
Brandon Dorlus is an enormously powerful edge player. He has the size and strength to move inside in special packages, but he will be at his best setting the edge and chasing down runs on early downs.
That isn’t to say Dorlus will not be an effective pass rusher. With some added technique, his size and motor should allow him to develop into an above-average pass rusher as well. There are better, more fluid options available at the top of the draft, but none offer the Oregon prospect's combination of speed and strength.
The Commanders have a lot of experienced edge players after Adam Peters’ free-agent pick-ups. Dorlus should be able to sit behind them for a while, and eventually grow into a very solid starting piece.
Commanders draft Ben Sinnott
- Tight End | Kansas State Wildcats
- Round No. 3 | No. 78 overall
The 2023 tight-end draft class may go down as the greatest ever. The Washington Commanders missed out on it. That is hard to figure given the way they completely ignored 2022 draftee Cole Turner during the season.
It is possible that Turner or the athletically gifted Armani Rogers could develop into a quality receiving tight end, but that remains a major question. Veteran Zach Ertz should be able to fill in for the released Logan Thomas in 2024, but Washington needs to find a young tight end who can work the middle of the field and become a reliable target for the young quarterback.
Ben Sinnott may not be the breakout star Sam LaPorta or Dalton Kincaid proved to be as rookies in 2023, but he fits their profile. He is a solid bet to become a reliable receiving option.
Commanders draft Braelon Allen
- Running Back | Wisconsin Badgers
- Round No. 4 | No. 108 overall
I moved back eight spots in a trade with the Minnesota Vikings that got No. 108 and No. 157 picks in exchange for No. 100 and No. 222. Minnesota used the pick on defensive tackle Maason Smith.
When I made the trade, I had no intention of selecting Wisconsin’s powerhouse Braelon Allen with the pick. When presented with the board, the prospect of bringing in a truly dominant power running back was too enticing to pass up.
The Commanders already have strong inside runners on the roster, but Allen has the potential to be better than them. Running almost exclusively inside against Big 10 defenses, he never averaged below 5.4 yards-per-carry in his three years as a Badger. He is not especially fast, but he is patient and has quick enough feet to make moves inside the hole.
If you don’t get a clean shout on Allen, he will run you over. Sometimes he will do that even if you get that clean shot.
Commanders draft Chau Smith-Wade
- Cornerback | Washington State Cougars
- Round No. 5 | No. 139 overall
I passed on some of the more physically dominant cornerbacks earlier in the draft. Chau Smith-Wade is the first of two later-rounders who simply made productive plays in college.
Smith-Wade has decent size and speed, but he will not blow anyone away with physicality. Instead, he is a smart, experienced corner who reads patterns and reacts confidently. He makes tackles. He can play in any system.
I think he could develop into a starting-caliber slot corner in short order, but I feel confident he will be effective in a wide range of systems and responsibilities.
Commanders draft Zak Zinter
- Offensive Line | Michigan Wolverines
- Round No. 5 | No. 152 overall
I probably took Zak Zinter in more mock drafts than any other player. Had he not suffered a serious leg injury late in the 2023 season, he'd have gone several rounds earlier. His recovery appears to be right on schedule and any team that can afford to stash him for a year will be getting an outstanding interior lineman.
Zinter is big, strong, and technically sound. He is not as mobile as some other guards, and that leg will be a concern until he shows how well he can move. But with him in the fold, along with earlier draft picks Joe Alt and Kingsley Suamataia, the Washington Commanders have a completely rebuilt offensive line which should pay dividends into the next decade.
Commanders draft Jarvis Brownlee Jr.
- Cornerback | Louisville Cardinals
- Round No. 5 | No. 157 overall
See Chau Smith-Wade.
Jarvis Brownlee Jr. is a similar player. He is not physically imposing, but he has decent size and speed. More than anything, he is a smart, tough prospect who competes.
With both cornerbacks taken, I am reversing the recent tendency to go with long, speedy players, and instead finding smaller guys who have shown a great knack for making plays in coverage, and the willingness to step into running lanes. If you have read me before, you may know that Danny Johnson is among my favorite recent Commanders. Both Smith-Wade and Brownlee remind me of younger, faster versions.
In addition to these 10 new players, I come out of the draft with New England's first-round pick in 2025. With both the Commanders and the Patriots likely to be using rookie quarterbacks in 2024, it seems a good bet that at least one of those picks - and quite possibly both - will be highly valued.
This gives Adam Peters great flexibility in fixing any issues not solved by this year’s moves.