What are the pros and cons of the Washington Commanders making Eric Bieniemy their next head coach in 2024?
It would help if you imagine me winking as you read the following sentence. No one knows for certain whether Ron Rivera will return as head coach of the Washington Commanders next season. But, for the sake of argument, let’s assume that his four straight seasons without a winning record and a winning percentage likely to be in the low 40s is not enough to save his job.
Then, the Commanders will be looking to hire their ninth new head coach since 2000. Whoever that is, he will attempt to become the first to have a winning record in the 21st century.
Our question today is, should that coach be Eric Bieniemy?
Were it to play out that way, it would be an odd situation. But as you are well aware, odd situations are nothing new to this franchise.
Typically, when a coach is fired, there is a general housecleaning. This may be different if the coach retires. In that case, there might be a succession plan in place that involves a coordinator like Bieniemy.
Washington had such a plan in place a decade ago when offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan was in line to replace his dad. But I don’t want to remind you of such a painful memory. Oops - I think I just did. My bad.
I never thought Josh Harris would axe Rivera during the season and I still don’t, but let’s suppose that the Commanders suffer an embarrassing loss to the New York Jets on Christmas Eve and pressure from both fans and players becomes overwhelming. In that case, Bieniemy would almost certainly become the team’s interim.
Were that to happen, it would change the following analysis.
For the record, I wouldn’t wish that scenario on my worst enemy. I wouldn’t even wish it on Jim Harbaugh. The Commanders would sit at 4-11 with games against the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys left to play. With Rivera fired and Bieniemy elevated, they would not have a defensive or an offensive coordinator in place.
It would be impossible for Bieniemy to show much of anything.
So we’ll leave that aside for now and focus on what happens if Harris goes looking for a new head coach this off-season. Should that man be Bieniemy? Here’s a point/counterpoint on the pros and cons.
Commanders offensive progress under Eric Bieniemy
Pro:
The Washington Commanders have improved in most significant offensive categories under Eric Bieniemy’s leadership.
This is true despite starting an inexperienced quarterback taken in the fifth round of the 2022 NFL Draft. This is true despite having one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. And this is true despite not adding any game-changing skill position plays on offense.
The Commanders' points-per-game are up more than 1.5 points this year. Their yards-per-rush and yards-per-pass-attempt are up. In total yards, they have risen from a below-average NFL team to an above-average one.
Had Washington’s defense held each of their opponents to their season average points, the Commanders would be 8-4 instead of 4-8. I grant you, that is a somewhat specious statistic, but it is clear that the offense has not been the primary culprit in the team’s failure this year.
Bieniemy deserves credit for that.
Con:
Despite those solid numbers, Washington has regressed in several other areas.
The Commanders' overall rushing totals are among the worst in the league. That yards-per-figure is inflated due to a relatively small sample size and several big scrambles. Washington is still not able to consistently generate yards on the ground.
Negative plays - especially turnovers and sacks - are way up. Under Bieniemy’s more pass-happy attack, Washington is committing almost half a turnover more per game this season, and are surrendering two more sacks per game. Those are huge numbers.
There is also the possibility that the Commanders' offensive line is not quite as bad as it has looked - particularly in pass protection - but has been undercut by schemes that do not maximize protection. Therefore, despite quantifiable improvement, you could argue that Bieniemy is not maximizing the talent he does have.
Jahan Dotson has virtually disappeared. Curtis Samuel looked revived early in the season but that has not lasted. Promising youngsters like Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Cole Turner have shown brief flashes but have mostly been invisible.
I’m not sure how much of these things fall on Bieniemy, especially given his brief tenure. But they are worthy of further consideration.
Continuity for Sam Howell
Pro:
Sam Howell has struggled with some aspects of the NFL game this season. That was always to be expected. However, overall, he has performed well above expectations.
Despite a couple of bad turnovers lately, his decision-making has improved. He looks more decisive in the pocket. Howell is rolling out more. His rhythm throws are improving. All of that is attributable to the work both Eric Bieniemy and quarterbacks coach Tavita Pritchard have done with the second-year player.
Howell is improving. Maybe the worst thing you could do right now is change systems on him.
Remember, Bieniemy has only been working with Howell and the rest of this offense for nine months. Though he had most of an off-season, there was still bound to be a learning curve.
It is reasonable to assume that were Bieniemy to take over as head coach, he would have a much better handle on what Howell and the rest of the offense can and cannot do.
Con:
However potentially beneficial providing continuity for Howell may be, there is going to be a very strong impulse to simply wipe the slate clean and start over in 2024. That is often the case with new ownership.
Josh Harris and company signaled that possibility at the trade deadline when they moved Chase Young and Montez Sweat. There’s a very real possibility that the new regime wants to erase every vestige of previous ownership. Bieniemy hasn’t been here long, but he is still part of that history.
Continuity can be a tricky thing to decipher. It’s possible that Howell’s improvement has had more to do with Pritchard's involvement than with that of Bieniemy.
Bieniemy has had a ton of experience coaching offenses at the highest level, but the only position he has ever coached is the one he played - running back. He has never been a quarterbacks coach.
That has not traditionally been a prerequisite for the top spot. But as the league becomes increasingly more quarterback-dependent, that is changing.
Many of the best young head coaches in the league have coached quarterbacks at some point in their careers. That includes Kyle Shanahan, Matt LaFleur, Kevin O’Connell, and Doug Pederson. Even the ones who haven’t - like Sean McVay and Mike McDaniel - had prior experience coaching multiple offensive positions.
Is Eric Bieniemy a worthy Commanders candidate?
Pro:
With the exception of that note about coaching quarterbacks, Eric Bieniemy checks off every single box when looking for a new head coach.
When a team fires its coach, it almost always is looking for a change. A change in philosophy. A change in experience. A change in background.
Bieniemy is an offensive coach in contrast to the defensive-minded Ron Rivera. He is hyper-energetic compared to the laid-back current Washington Commanders man at the helm.
He comes from a winning pedigree. You could argue Rivera did as well, but there’s a lot of smoke and mirrors in his record.
Rivera had twice as many losing seasons as winning ones with the Carolina Panthers. He will almost certainly leave the Commanders without a single winning campaign.
By contrast, in 10 years serving under Andy Reid with the Kansas City Chiefs - half as running backs coach and half as offensive coordinator - Bieniemy never coached a team with a losing record. He was part of two Super Bowl winners.
You can argue that was primarily due to Reid, but this doesn't change the pedigree.
Unless you are inside the locker room, it’s impossible to know what players truly feel about a coach. But every tea leave I can read suggests that Bieniemy’s relationship with the players is exactly what you would want.
They seem to genuinely respect him. And they also seem to fear him a little bit. I think they also mostly like him, but that isn’t as important as the first two things.
Bieniemy has pushed them hard and they have shown progress. Is it smart to abandon that just because there have been a few bumps in the road?
Con:
Here's why it may be. For the first time in 20-plus years, the Commanders have an attractive job on offer.
They are no longer saddled with a meddlesome, reviled owner. New ownership is eager to make a big splash and will no doubt move on all fronts - personnel, management, facilities - to improve things.
The Commanders will go into the 2024 off-season with draft picks galore and a good salary cap situation. They already have a potential franchise quarterback in place, and I am becoming increasingly convinced that another blue chipper like Bo Nix or Jayden Daniels will be in the fold next year.
Teams that fire coaches are typically not in very good shape. Washington has obvious problems to address, but it is in about as good a position as any such organization could be.
That means Josh Harris should have his pick of new coaches. He will not have to settle for longshot candidates or go begging questionable veterans to attempt a salvage operation by offering too much money and power. There will be plenty of enticing options available.
Bieniemy may not deserve the job at this point. But he certainly deserves to be one of those options.