What lessons must the Washington Commanders' new regime learn from countless first-round draft blunders over the last two decades?
Every fan can drive themselves crazy by simply scanning the draft picks in a given year and lamenting all the quality players their team passed on to take a flier on an NFL Scouting Combine warrior or long snapper. But alas, this isn’t an article about Camaron Cheeseman.
Teams make mistakes in the draft all the time. Even good ones. Quality organizations tend to make fewer mistakes. They also stockpile selections instead of frivolously trading them away, thus creating a simple numbers advantage.
At the end of the day, they may still make mistakes. What separates them is they also gather better players than their less successful rivals.
The Washington Commanders - throughout much of the 21st century - have been one of those. We're going to feature five major mistakes the franchise has made in the first round of the draft since 2000 and examine what lessons general manager Adam Peters can learn from them.
Before that, I am going to begin with a move that was not a mistake. Even if it is typically considered their biggest draft blunder this century.
The 2012 trade with the Los Angeles Rams that resulted in Washington selecting Robert Griffin III was a bold move. Tracing the outcome of that exchange requires an advanced degree in combinatorics. Suffice it to say, the four actual draft picks they gave up did not result in any future Pro Football Hall of Famers.
Griffin won NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and took Washington to the playoffs. The problem was not the pick - it was the management of the player. We’ll come back to that, but not about the Griffin selection.
There are so many other mistakes to learn from. Here are five prime examples.
Commanders must take the right guy
This is the most basic lesson of all, right?
It comes down to one simple task. Do a better job scouting prospects. Every team can say this. But in 2001, the now-Washington Commanders made an especially big mistake.
They took Rod Gardner with the No. 15 pick. Never mind the fact that more than half a dozen perennial Pro Bowlers were scooped up later in the rounds. Just concentrate on the wide receivers that went in the next 24 selections. These included Santana Moss, Reggie Wayne, and Chad Johnson.
Sometimes statistics need context. Sometimes, they don’t.
The three receivers Washington passed on combined for more than 2,500 catches, 35,000 yards, and 200 touchdowns during their careers. Gardner, nicknamed “50-50” by Bruce Smith during his rookie season because of his penchant for catching every other ball thrown his way, ended his career with 242 catches for 3,165 yards and 23 scores.
Fortunately for Washington, Moss would do the bulk of his damage after being acquired by Joe Gibbs in a trade a few years later. But the best thing they had to show for the Gardner blunder was reliable defensive lineman Kendric Golston - drafted with the sixth-round pick they received after finally giving up on the pass-catcher following four underwhelming seasons in DC.
Trading up has hidden minefields
Any team without a long-term answer at quarterback is prone to take a chance on a hot prospect. There’s nothing wrong with that. And there was nothing wrong with the selection of Jason Campbell as the No. 25 pick in the 2005 NFL Draft.
Campbell was a decent pro quarterback. During his four years with the now-Washington Commanders, he provided some stability. But he was not a savior. Far from it.
The mistake wasn’t taking a chance on Campbell after his outstanding college career. The mistake was giving up multiple assets to take that chance.
The selection of Campbell is an object lesson in why this is usually a bad move. Washington traded three selections to move into the end of the first round so that they could draft the promising signal-caller. The first two picks they gave up - 2005 third-rounder Karl Paymah and 2006 first-rounder Manny Lawson - were nothing special. But the least valuable pick - the fourth-rounder in 2006 - turned into Brandon Marshall.
Marshall ended his career with 970 catches, more than 12,000 receiving yards, and 81 touchdowns. The takeaway here is that you don’t give up draft picks for dart throws. You never know which of your unheralded picks is going to end up as one of your best players.
Commanders must not let one man ruin their board
Vinnie Cerrato. The Iago of Washington football. Forced a bona fide football man like Marty Schottenheimer out by whispering in the owner’s ear while letting him win at squash.
Cerrato blew plenty of drafts in the first decade of the 21st century. This resulted in a dearth of talent from which the now-Washington Commanders have never really recovered. The wheeling and dealing in 2008 captures this futility perfectly.
He began by swapping three picks - a first, third, and fifth-rounder to the Atlanta Falcons for two seconds and a fourth-rounder. He traded that fourth-round pick to the Tennessee Titans for a later fourth and another in the fifth round.
If that wasn't enough, he swapped that fifth-rounder for two picks in the sixth. And what did he come away with?
Devin Thomas, Fred Davis, Justin Tryon, Durant Brooks, and Kareem Moore. That’s a whole lot of effort for a lot of mediocrity.
To be fair, none of the picks Cerrato gave up resulted in any special players. However, one of them turned out to be Harry Douglas - an average wide receiver who is having a better run as an analyst on ESPN.
If Washington had drafted him, at least they could derive some second-hand pleasure watching him on television.
Trading back is great, when the timing is right
Mike Shanahan arrived in 2011 and immediately began making moves. His first draft maneuver showed why he was so good.
Shanahan traded the No. 10 pick to the Jacksonville Jaguars so they could get quarterback Blaine Gabbert. The now-Washington Commanders moved back to No. 16 overall and also got a pick in the middle of the second round. With the first-rounder, they chose Ryan Kerrigan.
Slam dunk, right? And another high-value pick to come. This is where it gets fun.
Shanahan again traded back, dropping a few spots in the second round and picking up an extra fourth-rounder. Then, he traded both new picks in separate deals. The second-rounder resulted in a new second-rounder and a fourth-rounder. Then - stay with me - he traded both of those.
He parted ways with the second-rounder in exchange for three new later-round picks. Shanahan packaged two of the other newly acquired selections to move up in the third round, and also pick up a new sixth-rounder.
If you didn’t follow all that, here’s the bottom line. After fleecing Jacksonville for Kerrigan, Shanahan made four other deals that resulted in the following players: Leonard Hankerson, Roy Helu Jr., Aldrick Robinson, Dejon Gomes, and Maurice Hurt.
I don’t know who he would have chosen with that original second-round pick he got from the Jaguars, but there’s a pretty good chance it would have resulted in a more productive player than those five guys put together. Though Helu still holds the franchise’s single-game reception record.
The lessons behind Dwayne Haskins
The now-Washington Commanders had the No. 15 overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. After bungling the Kirk Cousins contract, they were in desperate need of a quarterback. They ended up selecting Dwayne Haskins.
There are several lessons to learn from his tragic story. But these are the three most important.
In terms of on-field performance, never over-invest in a one-season college phenom. Haskins’ final season at Ohio State was extraordinary. He looked like a sure-fire franchise quarterback. But it was just one season.
He had virtually no résumé before 2018. As it turned out, there were serious flaws in his game that were not revealed in one campaign at the helm of a college juggernaut.
This is a very different scenario from 2024 prospects like Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, and Michael Penix Jr. Each showed great improvement in their final college year, but each also had a wealth of history that revealed a steady and natural progression. In other words, their breakouts didn’t come out of nowhere. Maybe one or more will flame out in the pros, but at least you have a good track record to study.
Even more important, do not invest heavily in a prospect based on his story. The previous owner wanted Haskins because he was a local kid. He spoke well. He looked good. You could build a media campaign around him. But the head coach, who knew he was on the hot seat, was leery of an untested rookie. He didn’t want the signal-caller and did a very poor job coaching him.
That may be the ultimate lesson - especially when you are drafting someone to play the most challenging position on the field. You had better have a strong support system in place. The Commanders' investment in so many new coaches with quarterback experience shows that this may be one lesson they have learned.