What realistic scenarios are the Washington Commanders' new regime facing with the No. 2 overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft?
Does the hiring of Kliff Kingsbury as the Washington Commanders' new offensive coordinator increase the odds of selecting USC’s Caleb Williams in the 2024 NFL Draft? He served as a senior offensive analyst for the Trojans in 2023 and has an excellent track record with young quarterbacks. There must be something going on here, right?
No. Kingsbury’s hiring does not increase the odds any more than you picking Williams’ jersey No. 13 as your Powerball.
There. Glad I could answer that question.
Of course, that still leaves plenty of other questions unanswered. How will Adam Peters, Dan Quinn, and others involved plan to approach their first-round selection this April? Kingsbury’s arrival certainly doesn’t decrease the chances of a deal involving Williams. That was always a possibility, however remote.
Indeed, Williams’ remaining college eligibility and the prospect of making millions of NIL dollars gives him a degree of leverage never seen before from a likely top pick. To date, there has been no hard evidence that he would refuse to play for the Chicago Bears were they to draft him at No. 1 overall.
There has merely been the type of internet speculation that makes for good water cooler chat. Until there is more evidence, the Bears still hold the cards.
Furthermore, there is no evidence that Williams would want to return to his DC home to launch his professional career. Merely more speculation. So for today, let’s just take a bit of a dive into the three paths the Commanders might pursue with their first-round pick, which comes immediately after the Bears.
Don’t worry, we won’t get too far into the weeds. Only one or two references to the mysterious draft pick value chart, I promise.
Commanders could trade to No. 1 overall
The best thing about having the No. 2 pick in the draft is not being able to pick the second-best player. The best thing about it is the leverage and flexibility it offers.
Let’s play this out. Perhaps the Chicago Bears do their pre-draft work and decide the player they want is Marvin Harrison Jr. They will either stick with incumbent quarterback Justin Fields or draft a signal-caller late - perhaps at No. 9 overall.
If this is Ryan Poles’ plan, the first team he will negotiate with is the Washington Commanders. That is the only way he can be assured of getting Harrison. He might be able to create a bidding war with the New England Patriots at No. 3 - who also need a quarterback.
In this scenario, the Commanders control the narrative here because if the Bears drop to No. 3, Washington could trade out with a team that wants Harrison. There’s a lot of chicken played at this point. Chicago would likely prefer to remove all uncertainty and trade with the one team they know ensures they get a generational wide receiver.
Though the draft chart says that moving up one spot should only cost Washington one of its two second-rounders, these things never work out that cleanly. With New England and perhaps another team or two in the conversation, the Commanders will have to shell out more to land Caleb Williams.
A probable trade option would see Washington get the No. 1 pick to spend on Williams. Chicago gets the No. 2 pick, the Commanders' pick at No. 36, and their 2025 first-rounder. Poles would then be able to select Harrison and possibly use his abundance of draft capital to move back up for Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels if he so desires.
For the record, though I admire Williams’ upside, I would not make this deal if I were Washington.
Commanders could hold firm at No. 2
I suspect this is the slight favorite at this point. Deals are hard to make. Adam Peters and his staff will do their analyses and come up with who they want at No. 2. If it is one of the two quarterbacks currently slotted immediately after Caleb Williams - Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels - then this is a no-brainer.
The slight consensus right now is that Maye would be that choice. I think when all is said and done, it will be Daniels. I think his upside is higher. If you are going to swing big with this pick, you may as well take the biggest swing possible. That’s why there will be talk about trying to get Williams.
Daniels is not a perfect prospect, but if you listened to Dan Quinn’s presser, he specified that he wanted an offense that could make splash plays. The Heisman Trophy winner's two greatest strengths are his ability to throw deep and run. In other words - he fits the mold.
I also realize that some fans worry Daniels only had one big year. Was it a fluke? Is this another Dwayne Haskins situation? That is a ludicrous comparison.
Daniels started throughout four full seasons and attempted almost 1,000 more passes than Haskins in college. He did have a monster leap forward in 2023, but it came after steadily improving over his previous two campaigns.
Scouts will have a much better handle on how good Daniels is likely to be than they did on Haskins or a player like Trey Lance, who is no doubt much more on Peters’ mind. After all, he was part of the San Francisco 49ers front-office committee that gave up the earth for a signal-caller who made no impact and was traded to the Dallas Cowboys.
Still, Peters could decide that Maye is the better prospect. If he is not sold on either player, then the third strategy comes into play.
Commanders could trade down from No. 2
Last year, quarterbacks were drafted with the first three picks. There’s a good chance that will happen again this year, though Marvin Harrison Jr. could spoil the trifecta. If the Washington Commanders decide that Caleb Williams is out of reach and neither Jayden Daniels nor Drake Maye is a major step forward from Sam Howell, then they almost have to trade back.
Washington will get a lot of phone calls come draft day - and before. In an exact mirror image of the trade-up scenario, the Commanders might want to trade down with the New England Patriots at No. 3.
New England presumably would only be doing this if they significantly valued one of the quarterbacks other than Williams higher than the rest. According to the draft value chart (second – and final mention), the Commanders could expect to get third and fourth-round picks - No. 68 and 103 overall - if they were willing to flip first-rounders and move back to number three.
I don’t see a trade with New England happening. A far more likely scenario exists with the Atlanta Falcons at No. 8. They are desperate for a quarterback and would almost certainly be willing to move some assets to get a crack at Maye or Daniels. The entry price into the negotiation would be Atlanta’s first and second-round picks in 2024.
Then it gets interesting. Washington should at minimum demand the Falcons 2025 first-round pick. There has been some media speculation that Atlanta is prepared to part with 2021 first-round pick Kyle Pitts. After being picked No. 4 overall, the tight end has been a disappointment but is still just 23 years old and has a world of talent. The Commanders are in desperate need of playmakers, but a decision needs to be made on his fifth-year extension.
Drafting at No. 8 would almost certainly allow the Commanders to select one of the premier left tackle prospects - Joe Alt or Olu Fashanu. One of them will likely be off the board by eight, but not both.
That is what I would like to see. Milk the Falcons for as much as you can get. Get another second-round pick this year and a high selection in 2025. Get Pitts. Add the franchise left tackle.