What were some critical observations from the Washington Commanders' decision to trade Montez Sweat and Chase Young before the deadline?
Montez Sweat or Chase Young? Chase Young or Montez Sweat? If you had “All of the Above”, then you’re a winner in the 2023 edition of the Washington Commanders Firesale Sweepstakes.
Like many of you, I was monitoring Tuesday’s trade updates with great interest. Looking at the buzz, I knew full well that one of the Commanders' two defensive ends was likely to be traded.
I was bothered by rumors that safety Kamren Curl might also be on the block. That would have made no sense to me. As much as I like and respect Kendall Fuller and Logan Thomas, I would have understood moving either veteran for a decent offer.
But I went into yesterday thinking that the Commanders would trade Sweat and that would probably be the end of it. He made the most sense from Washington's point of view and that of any potential trade partner.
For the Commanders, as good as Sweat is, one could argue Young still has a higher ceiling. If the former No. 2 pick stays healthy and continues his development, he could be a truly game-changing edge defender. Just check the tape of the Commanders-San Francisco 49ers games in 2020 during his rookie season.
Sweat is much more of a sure thing - which would appeal to any contender looking to bolster their defensive line for a playoff run. I figured he was gone, and maybe one of the other veterans like Fuller might join him.
I never thought the Commanders would trade both young edge defenders. I don’t know anyone who did.
You have probably already seen lots of “trade grade” pieces. I’m on board with the consensus. Sweat for a second-rounder represents solid value. And since it’s the Bears, that pick should be high up in Round No. 2, not far from where Sweat was originally selected in 2019.
Young for a conditional third-rounder - which could become a second, based on criteria that I have yet to see - seems like a steal for San Francisco. Leonard Williams recently fetched a second and fifth-round pick, and the Ohio State product shouldn’t be that far behind him.
The fact that the New York Giants are paying off the bulk of Williams' remaining salary is what made him more attractive to the Seattle Seahawks. Even so, the Commanders should have wrangled an additional Day 3 pick out of the Niners.
That’s all history now. So let’s look at the ramifications of these two blockbuster trades, past, present, and future.
Commanders past
Since 2000, the Washington Commanders have selected 22 players in the first round of the NFL Draft. Montez Sweat and Chase Young become the fifth and sixth first-rounders the team has traded away for draft picks.
They join Rod Gardner, Patrick Ramsey, Jason Campbell, and Trent Williams on that dubious list.
The first two trades barely mattered. Campbell was jettisoned after Washington acquired Donovan McNabb. And Williams was dealt from a position of extraordinary weakness based on a highly fractured relationship.
But to the best of my knowledge, the Commanders have never traded two former first-rounders on the same day. At least the haul was better than those previous trades. The previous three yielded just one Day 2 selection along with four Day 3 picks.
Looking back, the biggest takeaway from Tuesday is that this constitutes a total repudiation of the strategy that this team has been employing over the past decade. That has enormous implications for the future, which we will get to shortly.
Before we do, let’s do a quick post-mortem on the “dominant defensive line” – the line comprised of four first-round draft picks that were supposed to anchor the Commanders’ return to prominence.
None of those four players was a bust, and that’s no small statement. But they did not live up to the hype. Young’s injury slowed the progress, but you can’t blame any of this on his inability to stay healthy. The injury track record isn’t too bad.
This line, which was always above average, simply was never consistently dominant.
Like most observers, I’ve been brutal in my assessment of Commanders linebacker play of late. But if you watch really good defenses, you will note that linebackers like Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw in San Francisco, or Nick Bolton in Kansas City, or even Nicholas Morrow in Philadelphia, all have much easier paths to the ball carrier because their defensive lines are tying up linemen.
This season, Jamin Davis and Cody Barton are often getting blown out of the play by bigger offensive linemen. That doesn’t absolve them, but it does suggest that this defensive line is not as dominant as it was supposed to be.
Commanders present
The Washington Commanders are not as good a team as they were heading into Week 8 after trading Montez Sweat and Chase Young. And that team had lost five of its last six games against mostly mediocre opponents.
This does not bode well for the remainder of the 2023 season.
But if you are looking for silver linings, try this one on for size...
James Smith-Williams, Casey Toohill, Efe Obada, K.J. Henry, Andre Jones, Jr., and Joshua Pryor. The Commanders have a large group of young edge players who mostly come from the later rounds of the draft or free agency.
The ones who have gotten some playing time - mainly Smith-Williams, Toohill, and Obada - have proven they belong in the NFL. The others all have intriguing skill sets. And now they will all have a real chance to prove what they can bring to the table.
The Commanders do not need for them all to become as good as Sweat and Young. If one of them really takes a leap forward and a couple of others show they are legit NFL players, the team does have enough players to pick up for what was just traded away.
Commanders future
This is what it’s all about right? This trade was done for the future, and I think there are several conclusions we can draw.
First and foremost, this trade was orchestrated by Josh Harris and the new ownership group. There is a very good chance that they assessed where the team is, and where the league is, and came to the conclusion that the Washington Commanders were heavily over-invested in the defense.
While defensive production certainly continues to matter in today’s NFL, if you don’t have a dynamic offense, you are going nowhere.
I think this signals a change in direction which was fairly inevitable regardless of these trades. The Commanders will assess quarterback Sam Howell for the remainder of 2023 and decide whether he is their man going forward. If so, they will surround him with as much dynamic talent as possible.
That means a rebuilt offensive line, along with better playmakers at tight end and running back. I love Brian Robinson Jr.’s toughness, but Washington is going to be looking for the next Jahmyr Gibbs.
If Howell is deemed below standard, then Washington will move heaven and earth to land a top-flight quarterback prospect next season. That is never a sure thing. Not even Caleb Williams is a sure thing. But if the Commanders find themselves with a chance to grab him, they will do it.
Because, going forward, the biggest takeaway from the huge day in Commanders' history is this...
The new ownership team is fully prepared to blow things up. They will make deals. They will walk away from things that in the past seemed sacrosanct.
I’m not sure this is such a big change from what was always likely to happen. I have assumed for a while that the current coaching staff, and the current management team, would all be gone after this season.
All these trades do is confirm that - and perhaps speed up the entire process.
For instance, the one player I thought was untouchable on this team was Terry McLaurin. I still think it’s highly unlikely he’ll be moved, but now I could at least imagine it.
I previously thought there was no advantage to be gained from firing any of the coaches mid-season, but now I think that is very much on the table as well. And I think this also confirms my belief that the next head coach will come with a background in offense.
If you’re looking for an upside going forward, here are a couple. First, I’m no longer worried about re-signing Kamren Curl. I’m not saying the Commanders will do it, but now they will certainly be able to if they so choose.
With the draft capital and projected salary cap space, the Commanders' head coach and general manager jobs become extremely attractive. If Howell develops, then Josh Harris should have his pick of excellent candidates for both vital positions.
In the interest of balanced journalism, I feel like I have to point out that what Harris is doing looks very much like the early days of his ownership of the NBA’s Philadelphia 76ers. He stripped a struggling roster and stockpiled draft picks.
The payoff was supposed to come a few years down the road. It is now looking like that payoff will never be what it was supposed to become. This only goes to show that this strategy doesn’t guarantee anything.
But it does constitute a fresh start. And this is a franchise that desperately needs one.
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