Which Washington Commanders players should be considered as locks to make the 2024 roster with the potential of a new regime coming into the franchise?
Before Jonathan Allen’s recent announcement that he has seriously considered trying to find a way out of a Washington Commanders uniform, he would have been one of the current players guaranteed to be on the roster next season. I still think it is likely that he will stick around.
Allen is like Terry McLaurin on offense. Not only is he the best player on his side of the ball, but he is also a great leader and citizen. You win with players like him. You don’t walk away from them unless it is necessary.
But his revelation did get me wondering just how many current Commanders are roster locks for next season. There’s an old saying that goes something like this: “If I’m finishing 4-13 with my current guys, how much worse could I possibly be if I just jettison the whole lot and start from scratch?”
There are some players - mainly recent draft picks - whose favorable contract situations make them virtual locks. There are others who you just want to keep because of their quality. There may even be a player or two who sticks because the dead money hit is high and they aren’t all that bad.
Of course, on the flip side, there are players whose contracts are a bit of an albatross. Regardless of the cap hit, it might be better in the long term to part ways.
Let’s try to take all that into account as we run through the players who should be roster locks for next season.
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Commanders QBs (1)
- Sam Howell
The most obvious of all, right?
This is true even if the Washington Commanders select a quarterback with one of their high picks during the 2024 NFL Draft. Howell's performed well in difficult circumstances, but choosing one of the elite-level prospects from the college ranks is something that I think is becoming increasingly likely.
Howell is too good - and his contract is too cheap - for him to be going anywhere. You could go as far as to say the former fifth-rounder deserves a shot to show the NFL world what he's truly capable of behind a better offensive line - which he hasn't had the benefit of this season.
Jake Fromm may stick to the practice squad. Jacoby Brissett will move on after one season as a backup with the franchise.
Commanders RBs (2)
- Brian Robinson Jr., Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Together, Brian Robinson Jr. and Chris Rodriguez Jr. will cost barely $2 million next season. Even if the new coaches want to move on from the former third-round pick's bruising style of running, that will not happen in 2023.
Antonio Gibson will probably be gone once his contract expires next spring. Washington may look for a pass-catching specialist in the draft.
Commanders WRs (2)
- Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson
Despite being shut out against the Miami Dolphins from three targets, veteran wide receiver Terry McLaurin remains the heart and soul of the Washington Commanders. And you didn’t hear him talking like Jonathan Allen.
Jahan Dotson is still cheap. He’ll be looking to earn an extension next season. But he'll need to develop during the offseason with reinforcements on the way.
Curtis Samuel is a free agent, though contract deferments mean he will count against the cap whether he is here or not. I suspect his return will be largely based on who the new coach is. And he will get other offers.
I think he’s gone. So is Dyami Brown. A guy like Mitchell Tinsley should have a good shot, but no one else is even close to being a lock.
Commanders TEs (2)
- John Bates, Cole Turner
Young guys. Cheap.
John Bates is a solid in-line blocker who can make the occasional catch. Cole Turner flashed this pre-season but has barely been used. I expect that will change next year.
If Washington goes for Brock Bowers with their first pick, maybe that will change. But I don’t see that happening.
Logan Thomas is the single most likely salary cap casualty this off-season. He is still productive, but that is slipping. He has a high salary but a relatively modest dead cap number.
I like Thomas and hope he wants to go into coaching when he hangs up his cleats. I think he would be a very good addition to the staff. But I suspect he is finished playing for the Commanders.
Armani Rogers' status is entirely dependent on how he returns from his Achilles injury.
Commanders OL (2)
- Sam Cosmi, Ricky Stromberg
That’s it. That’s the single biggest symbol of failure on this roster.
There are only two offensive linemen who are locks for next season. One of them is a completely untested rookie.
The Washington Commanders need to extend Sam Cosmi and develop Rocky Stromberg. I suspect they will add at least two highly-rated linemen through the draft this off-season, and that is just the beginning of the rebuild.
The two starting offensive tackles - Charles Leno Jr. and Andrew Wylie - are currently the team’s fourth and fifth highest-paid players. Given their mediocre production, I don’t see how the team keeps both. Although I think one of them might stick around.
The question centers on whether the Commanders can do better in free agency. I'm not convinced you can. But via the 2024 NFL Draft, it's a different story looking at the prospects set to take their chances at the next level.
The others are either old - Tyler Larsen, Cornelius Lucas - or thus far unimpressive, such as Saahdiq Charles and Chris Paul. Again, this is a damning indictment of the team's recruitment and failure to prioritize their protection.
Aside from Paul, the others will all be free agents this summer. The fact that I cannot include last year’s fourth-round pick Braeden Daniels on the roster lock list is one more sign of how badly the Commanders have gone about building an offensive line.
Commanders DL (4)
- Daron Payne, K.J. Henry, Andre Jones Jr., John Ridgeway
What a difference a year makes.
Last year, we were wondering if the Washington Commanders could figure out some way to keep the highly-touted defensive line intact. Now it has been blown up.
We may still be in the middle of that, depending on the Jonathan Allen situation. The veteran defensive tackle has made no secret of his thoughts regarding a potential move away, which stems from not winning for any consistent period since he joined the franchise as a first-round pick in 2017.
Daron Payne got his lucrative extension to prevent him from leaving last offseason, so he's a lock. K.J. Henry and Andre Jones Jr. are the future. John Ridgeway is the cheapest player on the team who plays a lot.
Casey Toohill, James Smith Williams, and Efe Obada will be free agents. I suspect the Commanders will talk to some or all of them about returning, but no one is a lock.
Sadly, neither is Phidarian Mathis, last year’s second-round draft pick. He simply has not been able to stay healthy and has not been productive on the rare occasions he has played. Considering there are no significant salary-cap ramifications attached to his early release, it cannot be dismissed.
Commanders LBs (1)
- Jamin Davis
As with the Washington Commanders subpar at best offensive line, the situation across the linebacker corps is a train wreck. Jamin Davis is not as good as you would hope a first-round pick would be, but he has improved over the years and is at least an average professional linebacker at this point.
His price tag is not outrageous. Although the chances of Davis getting his fifth-year option picked up this offseason seem remote under a new regime with no emotional attachment to the former Kentucky star whatsoever.
The three other linebackers who actually play are all free agents this summer. Maybe a guy like Khaleke Hudson returns on a team-friendly deal, but no one other than Davis is even close to being a lock.
There will be a new defensive coordinator next season. after the team fired Jack Del Rio. Therefore, fans can expect plenty of changes to both scheme and personnel.
This will be more apparent at the neglected linebacker position than anywhere else. Considering both Del Rio and head coach Ron Rivera played the position, for them to almost completely ignore its importance was mind-boggling during the offseason recruitment phase and even more so now.
Commanders CBs (2)
- Emmanuel Forbes Jr., Quan Martin
The top two picks from the 2023 NFL Draft both have to step up. I assume Quan Martin will be a cornerback - probably in the slot - going forward. I think he can be very good there.
I also think Benjamin St-Juste will be on the Washington Commanders next season. He is still cheap and has talent. This defense has been a disaster and he has been victimized multiple times. But I have also seen him play well. the former third-rounder just hasn’t been reliable enough to call him a lock.
Kendall Fuller is a free agent in 2024. He will draw interest. I think the Commanders will want him back, but they may balk at his price despite having an abundance of salary-cap space available.
A lot of other depth pieces are on team-friendly contracts next year. But they will all be competing with a crop of newcomers for backup roles.
Commanders safeties (2)
- Darrick Forrest, Percy Butler
As with so many other locks, these recent mid-level draft picks are young and cheap. I don’t think Percy Butler has filled in very well for Darrick Forrest as a deep safety, but he should do better playing in the box.
That may matter because Kamren Curl will draw plenty of interest if he's allowed to test the market. Washington has yet to re-sign him. I expect they want to, but he has not indicated whether he wants to return.
I wish I could call him a lock, but I can’t. Jeremy Reaves is also a free agent and coming off injury. We’d all like to see him return, but the new coaches may want to look for younger, faster players.
Commanders special teams (0)
Of course, the Washington Commanders would like to have Tress Way as its punter. But he will cost almost $4 million next season.
Way is one of the highest-paid punters in the league. The question is whether you want to devote that kind of money to a punter when you are rebuilding most of your roster. The Commanders may decide they could find someone almost as good at about half the price.
Joey Slye is not necessarily gone. It’s clear what the kicker is and isn’t at this point. Big leg - inconsistent.
At the very least, he will face competition. This means he is not a lock, although he has come out on the other side of kicking battles smiling before.
Camaron Cheeseman’s base salary in 2023 was higher than Sam Howell’s. He has struggled and probably won't be back in 2024. Jamison Crowder was a nice fill-in as a punt returner, but I expect the Commanders will be looking for a younger option.
That’s about it.
That’s 18 players on the current roster who I consider locks for 2024. That’s normally the sign of a team in disarray. Or in transition. The Commanders are both.
Fortunately, the Commanders will have the draft capital and cap space to restock a lot of the roster. They just have to make a lot of smart decisions.
Fingers crossed.