The Washington Commanders head into the postseason for the first time since 2020 riding a five-game winning streak. But Dan Quinn’s team hasn’t played the type of complete game they will need to secure playoff success in more than a month.
Despite some spectacular play from quarterback Jayden Daniels and wide receiver Terry McLaurin, Washington has had a lot of breaks bounce their way. Especially over the last four games.
The four quarterbacks Washington has beaten in the past month — Spencer Rattler, Kenny Pickett, Michael Penix, Jr., and Trey Lance — had started a combined 31 games when they took on the Commanders. Almost all of those starts had come from Pickett, who only played after Philadelphia Eagles’ starter Jalen Hurts was knocked out early.
None of those quarterbacks began this season as a starter. Only one — Penix — projects to be a starter next season.
That is not going to be the case on Sunday Night Football when Pro Bowl signal-caller Baker Mayfield welcomes the Commanders to Tampa. The former No. 1 pick has more than 100 career starts, including four in playoff games. He also torched Washington in Week 1, completing 80 percent of his throws for 289 passing yards and four touchdowns.
The Commanders cannot expect to advance to the second round of the playoffs if they don’t up the level of their recent performances. How can they do that? Here are three problems they must solve heading into Wild Card weekend at Raymond James Stadium.
Problems the Commanders must solve before Wild Card clash at Buccaneers
Assessing risk-reward with Marshon Lattimore
The Washington Commanders' secondary was largely helpless against Tampa Bay's dynamic receiving duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in Week 1. Baker Mayfield targeted the pair 14 times and completed all but one of those passes. They combined to score three touchdowns.
The Buccaneers struggled mightily when both star wideouts missed time in the middle of the season. Godwin’s ankle injury was far more serious. He will not be on the field against the Commanders. Evans did return and wasted no time in resuming his future Pro Football Hall of Fame production. This is exactly why Marshon Lattimore was brought to Washington.
Since he entered the league in 2017, Lattimore has squared off against Evans twice a year as a member of the New Orleans Saints. For the most part, he has been very effective in shutting him down. They have engaged in one of the most heated personal rivalries in the NFL during that time.
Fights, fines, and penalties galore have defined their matchups. It seems apparent that though the rivals may respect each others’ skills, they do not like each other very much.
Lattimore was able to rest his balky hamstring over the past two weeks. The Commanders need him at full strength to keep a lid on Evans. They must also identify the risk versus reward regarding his injury issue.
Getting Brian Robinson Jr. back to form
The Washington Commanders do not have runners with elite speed and power like Derrick Henry or Saquon Barkley of the Baltimore Ravens and Philadelphia Eagles respectively.
Nor do they have running backs with the elusiveness of the Detroit Lions' Jahmyr Gibbs or Tampa Bay Buccaneers' rookie Bucky Irving, who they'll be looking to stop this weekend at Raymond James Stadium.
However, they have powerful ball carriers who run with great forward lean and tend to gain a few extra yards after contact. That has defined Brian Robinson Jr.’s game since he entered the league as a third-round pick out of Alabama in 2022. That has not been the case over he latter part of the 2024 season.
Through his first nine games — I’m excluding the first Dallas Cowboys contest he left early with an injury — Robinson was carrying the ball 15 times and gaining about 70 rushing yards. That works out to an average of almost 4.7 yards per carry.
Kliff Kingsbury can work wonders with that kind of production from his lead back. But in the last four games, those numbers have plummeted.
In those games, Robinson is carrying the ball 12 times and gaining just 40 yards for a paltry 3.3 yards per attempt. No offense can thrive with those numbers, not in the regular season or when things get tighter in the playoffs.
Why has his yards per carry dropped by almost a yard-and-a-half? I have blamed the offensive line for poor play of late, but any problem like this is a teamwide issue. Kingsbury must find a comprehensive solution to avoid an early postseason exit.
For context, Washington has won all four of those games, and their rushing totals have looked very good. They have won largely due to the inferior play of opposing offenses. Their rushing numbers continue to look good on paper almost entirely due to the play of of their quarterback.
That must change in the playoffs. And the Commanders must find a way to get Robinson back into the sort of form fans become accustomed to seeing earlier in the campaign.
Playing disciplined amid the playoff chaos
Through the first 10 games of 2024, the Washington Commanders committed just four turnovers. In the final seven, they gave up the ball 12 times.
That number is slightly inflated by the second game against the Philadelphia Eagles, in which the Commanders surrendered the ball five times, and still managed to win. But even allowing for that dramatic divisional success that all but guaranteed the Commanders' postseason spot, Washington has only played one clean game — with zero turnovers — among their last seven.
The Commanders have also become penalty-happy over the final month of the season. Through the first 12 weeks, they averaged six accepted penalties for 46 negative yards. Those are solid, slightly above-average numbers.
In the last five games, Washington has seen a massive uptick in penalties. During that time frame, they averaged eight penalties per game for 81 negative yards. It's an ongoing frustration that must be rectified in time for their Wild Card outing at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Far too many of those infringements were pre-snap motion calls on the offense, which made it difficult to sustain drives. The ever-lingering defensive holding or pass interference calls on the secondary allowed opponents to stay on the field and negate some key stops for Washington's defense.
It is not uncommon for teams that suffer injuries to accumulate more penalties later in the year as cohesiveness deteriorates. Regardless of the reasons, the Commanders cannot expect to give up free yards — or even worse, the ball — to the Buccaneers and come away with a win.
The Commanders have relied on their skill, resilience, and some luck to come into the playoffs on a high. Against Tampa Bay, they need more than that in pursuit of reaching the divisional round.
They need to play a complete game — something they haven’t done since beating up on the Tennessee Titans in the team's final game before their much-needed Week 13 bye. The Buccaneers will not be quite so easy.