How the Commanders should address the QB situation

We’re going to talk about the Washington Commanders quarterback outlook for 2023, but we’re going to do it with the understanding that we are now in the middle of January and things will change – a lot – before any final decisions are made. Players will rise and fall, become available and be pulled from the market. The Commanders will hire a new offensive coordinator which could impact their decisions.  So this is a snapshot of where we stand today. Now that that’s established, let’s begin…

It’s tough for a rookie quarterback to start in the NFL. It’s the most mentally challenging position in all of sports. The speed of the defense, the sheer amount of information to be processed in fractions of seconds – almost no one can do it until they have had a lot of repetitions, and most likely, made a lot of mistakes. Ideally, a rookie can sit behind a veteran for a while and smooth out the bumps in the learning curve – kind of the way Aaron Rodgers did for three full years behind Brett Favre in Green Bay.

Nowadays, rookies don’t get three years. But any time on the bench can be helpful. For instance, recently, there was a rookie who got to basically sit the entire season and absorb how the vets prepared and played. Then, in the final game of the season, with no playoff implications involved, he got a chance to start his first game. He didn’t exactly set the world on fire, but he looked pretty good. Sure, he threw an interception, but he also completed around 60% of his passes, showed good movement, and averaged a very respectable eight yards per attempt. Maybe most importantly, he led his team to victory.

Of course, by now, you’ve realized that I am talking about Patrick Mahomes.

I don’t mean to suggest that the Commanders Sam Howell is the next Patrick Mahomes. I don’t think there is a next Patrick Mahomes. But some of the similarities are indeed striking. Howell waited until the final week to get on the field his rookie season, just as Mahomes did. And he looked pretty good once he got his chance. In fact, you could argue that Howell looked better.

Howell played against a defense that was headed to the playoffs, but was still playing its starters because it wanted to win. Mahomes was playing against a pretty bad Denver team back in 2017.  Howell threw a TD. Mahomes did not. Howell ran for a TD. Mahomes did not. Howell finished with a rating of 83, better than Mahomes’ 76.4.

Still, I am not saying that Sam Howell, a 5th round draft pick, is on the same trajectory as Mahomes, who went number 10 in the 1st round. What I am saying is this…

Based on what we saw from Sam Howell in that one game at the end of the year, the Commanders should absolutely, positively go into the 2023 season with Howell penciled in as their starter. Maybe you don’t use permanent marker, but a good solid No 2 pencil in a bold stroke.

I’ve been hearing lots of conversation about who the Commanders should pursue at QB. Draft targets, free agents, trade options. None of the players – at least none of the realistic ones – should be slotted ahead of Howell.

Let’s take them one at a time, shall we?

Commanders QB Trade Targets

Two players seem to be getting the most traction: Las Vegas’ Derek Carr and Chicago’s Justin Fields.

Carr will almost certainly be traded this off-season. Don’t want him. I already spelled out why, here.

Fields is more intriguing because he is younger and has a higher upside than Carr. I still don’t want him. Here’s why…

Fields is an elite runner. Perhaps the best running quarterback in in the NFL. I maintained at the time and I still maintain that if Chicago had simply allowed Fields to run the ball on four straight plays at the end of the Bears/Commanders game back in October, there’s no way Washington would have prevented Fields from scoring. But they had him pass, and the Commanders won.

After two years, Justin Fields is still not a great passer. He may get there. The comparison (SPOILER ALERT – this same comparison will be coming back in a few minutes) is Josh Allen, who had the same knock. Great runner, great arm, not very accurate. It wasn’t until his third season that Allen answered that complaint, and now he is among the elites. If Fields can do that, he too will become one of the best QBs in the league. I just don’t know that he can, and I certainly don’t want to spend a lot in a trade to find out.

(And before you start touting Fields’ impressive college completion percentages, let me stop you. I don’t care. It was college.)

There may be others QBs available through trade, but as of now, those are the two potential upgrades that seem most likely to be on the block.

Commanders QB Draft Targets

Washington will not be able to draft Bryce Young, Will Levis, or CJ Stroud (should he declare). Those guys will be gone by the fifth pick. Even if Chicago and/or Arizona is willing to trade down, there are at least seven teams sitting between them and the Commanders who want a quarterback, which means there are at least seven teams who can make better offers. It’s not happening.

The biggest question mark for the Commanders is where Florida’s Anthony Richardson is going to land. Personally, I would not take him in the first round, but I guarantee that someone will. In fact, once we get through the combines, where Richardson’s athletic gifts are going to gob smack those who haven’t seen him up close and personal, I predict he’s going to skyrocket, and will eventually be drafted higher than Washington’s 16th pick. I mean, Mac Jones was drafted 15th two years ago.

That means Washington would have to actually trade up to get him. I look at Richardson and I see Fields. His build is different. So is his throwing motion. And footwork. But he is a runner first and foremost. He is a phenomenal runner – the only quarterback who I have ever seen accelerate the way Richardson can is Michael Vick, and Richardson physically dwarfs Vick. He just isn’t very accurate. He is even closer to Josh Allen than is Justin Fields, and he may one day grow into that good a quarterback. I don’t want to spend a badly needed 1st round pick to find out.

I admit – no quarterback is a sure thing. But accuracy is a big deal – maybe the biggest. Taking a chance on a one-year starter with huge talent and limited accuracy is a bad bet.

There are other guys worth looking at, and it all depends on where you can get them. Hendon Hooker in the 4th? You have to think long and hard about that. Tanner McKee could go anywhere from the second half of round one to round three. If he’s sitting there when the Commanders pick in the second… again, you have to think about it.

But neither Hooker nor McKee, nor anyone else Washington may select on days 2 or 3 will supplant Howell early on. They will be there to sit and watch, and be ready to step in should Howell falter.

Commanders QB Free Agent Targets

Technically, Tom Brady will be on the market this off-season. He ain’t coming to Washington. Former high draft picks like Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold could be available. I actually still like Darnold, but this would not be a good situation for him. It would be very hard to sell the fan base on yet another older veteran the likes of Jimmy G or Teddy B.

Then there’s Lamar Jackson. If he actually does hit free agency, how can not consider him? I don’t think it will come to that because I think Baltimore will either re-sign or franchise him, but you never know. The main question for any team that wants to sign Lamar is whether you will agree to his demand for a fully guaranteed contract. Minnesota did it for Kirk Cousins and Cleveland did it for Deshaun Watson. But neither of those players had the injury history that Lamar has. Guaranteeing his contract is a huge gamble.

If he backs off that demand, you have to do whatever you can to sign him. Elite QBs like that don’t often become available. If he doesn’t, I think you have to walk away and let someone take the gamble.

I am going to assume for now that the Giants will work out a deal with Daniel Jones, so I will not consider him until such time as both sides announce he is available.

So if you’re the Commanders, you find a veteran backup who you like. That Heinicke kid would be acceptable, but I think he is looking for more than the Commanders will give.

A couple years ago, just before Washington singed Ryan Fitzpatrick, I argued that Tyrod Taylor would be the perfect bridge QB, while Washington scouted around for a long-term answer and continued to build the rest of the team. Now, with Howell in place, Washington doesn’t even need the bridge. They just need the veteran presence to provide depth. Jacoby Brissett should be sitting out there at a very reasonable price. He strikes me as the perfect guy to play behind Howell.

But really, we won’t even need him. Because, as I proved at the beginning, Sam Howell is the next Patrick Mahomes. Happy days are here again. I doubt we’ll even need another quarterback for the next decade.

Handing out Commanders’ 2022 end-of-season accolades

Now that the 2022 season has concluded, let's take a look at the highs and lows of Ron Rivera's third season coaching the Commanders.