3 wild stats that prove Commanders should continue starting Taylor Heinicke

The Washington Commanders are 3-1 over their last four games following their improbable upset win over the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night. The victory should all but confirm Taylor Heinicke starts for the foreseeable future, but Ron Rivera was surprisingly non-committal about naming a starter for Week 11 on Tuesday … before changing course and naming Heinicke the starter on Wednesday.

Heading into Monday night, the consensus was Carson Wentz would reclaim his starting job if Philly won convincingly as double-digit favorites after Heinicke threw a back-breaking interception in the Week 9 loss to the Vikings.

Even if Washington put up a fight with Heinicke, you could’ve argued for the former XFL star keeping the job for another week. The fact the Commanders won and Heinicke executed the game-plan to a tee suggests it’s not even a question Heinicke should start for as long as Washington remains in playoff contention.

Even after the season-changing win, there are some folks who are skeptical about Heinicke leading the team into the second half of the schedule. Here are some mind-bending stats that prove Heinicke should continue starting and Wentz should remain on the sidelines, however.

These stats prove Commanders should continue starting Taylor Heinicke

3. Terry McLaurin’s usage

It’s no surprise the Commanders started winning games the second McLaurin’s usage ramped up. Perhaps the most frustrating part of Wentz’s time under center pre-injury was McLaurin’s lack of volume. It’s been a different story since Heinicke took over, as McLaurin’s been instrument in all three wins during this stretch.

In six games with Wentz, McLaurin managed 22 catches on 37 targets (59.4% catch rate) for 367 yards (16.7 yards per catch) and one touchdown. That averages out to 3.6 catches, 6.2 targets and 61.2 receiving yards per game with the quarterback whom everyone believed before the season would maximize McLaurin’s skillset.

In four games with Heinicke, McLaurin has 24 catches on 36 targets (66.6% catch rate) for 370 yards (15.4 yards per catch). Those numbers equate to 6.0 catches, 9.0 targets and 92.5 yards per game. That’s 2.4 more catches, 2.8 more targets and a whopping 31.3 more receiving yards per game with Heinicke relative to Wentz.

Everyone in Washington knows McLaurin is a top-10 receiver talent. With Heinicke, McLaurin is actually putting up top-10 numbers. It’s not just about the numbers, though. The Commanders play better when McLaurin’s involved, and Heinicke’s done a considerably better job of finding No. 17 than Wentz.

2. More 4th quarter comebacks than …

After leading the Commanders to a last-second win over the Indianapolis Colts, Heinicke now has more fourth-quarter comebacks (four) than Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson, who all have three, since 2021.

Carson Wentz has two such games over the last two seasons combined. Both came with Washington, meaning he went 17 games without leading a fourth-quarter comeback with Indianapolis last year. Heinicke just has a knack for delivering in crunch time, and the Commanders seldom win in blowout fashion with their newfound identity of pounding the rock and controlling time of possession.

If you think that’s impressive, what about Heinicke’s penchant for beating upper-echelon quarterbacks? Since 2021, he’s taken down a three-time MVP in Tom Brady, a four-time MVP in Rodgers, pre-Denver Russell Wilson (a perennial Pro Bowler), a former MVP in Matt Ryan and current MVP candidate in Jalen Hurts.

Nobody can explain why this is happening, but it is happening and the Commanders would be insane not to keep riding the hot hand.

1. .526 win percentage since 2020

Wins aren’t a quarterback stat in the eyes of some analysts, but they absolutely matter for Washington, which hasn’t accumulated a wining season since it finished 8-7-1 in 2016, and has just three winning seasons since 2008.

Since joining the Commanders in 2020, Heinicke boasts a .526 win percentage. That’s superior to three star quarterbacks, including the Cardinals’ Kyler Murray (.513), the Bengals’ Joe Burrow (.500) and the Chargers’ Justin Herbert (.488).

Sure, Heinicke’s only made 19 starts in three seasons, but that’s an unthinkable stat. Heinicke wins games, and that’s all that matters. The Commanders were 2-4 with Carson Wentz running the offense, and Heinicke’s wins include beating Aaron Rodgers, and winning on the road in Indianapolis and Philadelphia.

Let’s not forget he was incredibly close to beating the one-loss Vikings, too.

Heinicke has put Washington in unfavorable situations with turnovers, but he doesn’t let adversity faze him. Some would even argue the best version of Heinicke comes after an interception, because he almost always responds. Winning is ultimately the most important stat here, however, and Heinicke is 3-1 as the starter.