The Commanders have reached a crossroads in Ron Rivera’s tenure

Three years and (nearly) one week ago, the Washington Commanders announced they had fired Jay Gruden. A few hours later, Bruce Allen would say the now infamous “The culture is damn good,” quote to the media. The culture, to the surprise of no one, had been revealed to have been anything but “good” or stable.

That was rock bottom for the franchise. They were 0-5, their first-round pick at quarterback looked lost and overdrafted, their team president was arrogantly praising a circus, and the roster was in horrible shape.

I could speak in hyperbole and tell you that the situation the Commanders currently find themselves in is just as bad as in early Oct. 2019. I won’t, though, because it will be hard to top that. This situation could eventually top 2019 with complacency, though, so the fact that it is close is concerning

The circumstances are less than ideal for the burgundy and gold. They are three games out of third place in the NFC East five weeks into the season, and four games out of first. They are 0-3 against the NFC and 0-2 against the NFC East. Washington accounts for 66% of the NFC East’s losses in its entirety this year.

With the Bears on deck, the Commanders will start to get desperate. It is getting late early for Washington and they are quickly reaching a dilemma.

The Washington Commanders’ dilemma

Now three years under the tutelage of Ron Rivera, the product on the field simply hasn’t improved enough. Each year under Rivera the Commanders start slow. In the first five weeks of the season, they are a combined 4-11 under Rivera. And they continue to be getting off to horrendous starts in football games.

The only players that remain from the previous regime are Chase Roullier, Tress Way, Montez Sweat, Jonathan Allen, Terry McLaurin, Cam Sims and Jon Bostic. Other than a few rotational pieces, the only players that remain are the quality building blocks that were here when Rivera took over.

For all intents and purposes, this is the Final Destination of the Ron Rivera rebuild. It is Year 3 and Rivera has been quoted as saying “3-5 years” was the timeframe that was needed to establish a culture in the NFL, citing his military background for his reasoning behind that. Well, it is Year 3. And the Commanders still are not very good.

They were completely outclassed in inner-divisional matchups against the Eagles and the Cooper Rush-led Dallas Cowboys. They were down 22-0 to the Lions at halftime. The Lions’ lone win remains against Washington, and they were just shut out by the Bailey Zappe-led Patriots. Simply put: as of right now, the Commanders are bottom-dwellers in the NFL.

Even the Giants, in their first year with Brian Daboll as head coach, with a roster filled with holes, continue to be competitive every week. And they are winning. They sit at 4-1, tied for second with the Dallas Cowboys with one of the least talented rosters in the NFL.

Ron Rivera’s culture-building timeline wasn’t even remotely true. It’s the NFL; placing a competitive product on the field does not need to take multiple years, whether your team has the QB or not. Good coaches will put their teams in positions to succeed. Rivera has not.

There is a chance the front office can convince themselves into thinking the “culture” Rivera has brought to the DMV is worth giving him one more chance. And the problem is Rivera is the head honcho of the entire football operation.

He essentially answers to himself. Martin Mayhew nor Marty Hurney have the authority to step in and tell the Snyder’s “okay, time to pull the plug.” One, they clearly don’t have that authority, and both understand Rivera being ousted will assuredly lead to pink slips on their desks as well.

The Commanders have a fledgling operation. The coaching staff nor the talent, which the coaching staff has helped construct in the “coach-centric approach,” isn’t working out. And the owner may let it slide for now to handle other problems. And no one else can intercede to stop it.

What went wrong in the Rivera era?

Ron Rivera’s task in rebuilding the Commanders was anything but easy. In just the first 9 months on the job, he had a litany of personal, organizational, and worldwide issues occur that were out of his control. Add that on top of taking over one of the worst rosters in the NFL and the deck was fully stacked against Rivera.

Rivera also did an admirable job getting a roster with multiple holes, to be feisty, win seven games, and claim a division title in a weak division in 2020. The coaching staff completely maximized that roster.

Since then, though, they have not improved. Instead, much has remained the same. Washington’s lack of success and competitiveness can be a tad perplexing. Rivera has been one of the more well-respected, rock-solid coaches in the entire NFL over the last decade.

There are multiple reasons he hasn’t worked though and most notably it starts with the revolving door at quarterback. While that is not all his fault, he made the decision to not trade up for one in the 2021 NFL Draft and elected to take Jamin Davis instead, so he is still dealing with the consequences of that decision.

Secondly, his talent evaluation skills just don’t seem to be up-to-par or innovative enough for 2022’s version of the NFL. Dan Snyder elected to go with a “coach-centric” approach with a coach who was largely inconsistent and mediocre.

Turns out Rivera is much of the same at talent evaluation. There have been some hits for Rivera certainly, especially in the draft. However, their approach in free agency has been poor. The star signings largely haven’t worked out. And their pool of players they use for depth remain the same. The depth guys for the Commanders continually seem to be the same in rotation.

It is year three and Jon Bostic is still on the team. Danny Johnson is on the practice squad and a few injuries away from being on the field again. Jeremy Reaves is still on the team. Troy Apke has stuck around. The Commanders may become reliant upon Tyler Larsen, less than a year removed from rupturing his Achilles, snapping the ball to Carson Wentz.

It is year three, and the same rotation of the underperforming James Smith-Williams and Casey Toohill is here. Never worry, though, Rivera can fill that spot in with former Panther Efe Obada. Or former Panthers Trai Turner and Andrew Norwell, who have both vastly underperformed. Rivera is too reliant on familiarity with his free agent signings, the talent pool he sorts through, and his coaching staff. Not surprisingly, the results are mostly the same.

And eventually, when roster spots need to be filled for depth or necessity, the strategy has been to sign rookies as developmental flyers this year. In year three Rivera is taking the “developmental” approach instead of signing veterans that can make an impact right away.

Meanwhile, the Ravens signed Jason Pierre-Paul, who made an instant impact for the Ravens Sunday Night against the Bengals.

Thirdly, Rivera struggles to manage the clock and other in-game situations. He called a timeout with under a minute left in the first half Sunday. On the next play, he didn’t call his second one as the clock ticked under 20 seconds before the Titans took a 14-10 lead. Instead of having a chance to steal points at the end of the half, Washington was forced to kneel. Add that to his odd decision to basically throw a timeout away on his challenge of the Cam Sims no-catch in the second half, he continually puts the team in bad situations with his game management.

Place all of that on top of the fact that the pressure is seemingly mounting on Rivera. His answers change weekly at the podium, and he deflects most of the blame onto the team. A few weeks ago it was Jamin Davis, then it was the secondary, then it was the offensive line. This week the team isn’t good because Carson Wentz is new to the system. Who knows what he will place the blame on next week?

And the bottom line is Rivera built this roster. The criticizing of this roster only puts more egg on his face because he is the master constructor of the 2022 Washington Commanders.

Rivera has done a number of good things for the franchise. He provides it with respectability, his players (and former ones too) love playing for him, and the roster has gotten better. If Rivera is eventually let go, the cupboard won’t be as bare as he started with.

Unfortunately, though, Rivera seems far too concerned about culture and less about accruing talented, game-changing football players. The NFC East is beginning to lap the Commanders and before they dig too steep of a hole, they need to start seriously considering moving on from Rivera.

Where do the Commanders go from here?

If that was too many words for you, here is the rundown: the clock is running out on the Ron Rivera era, and it is clear this isn’t working. So where do the Commanders go from here?

For starters, a loss against Chicago on Thursday may make it so an in-season change needs to happen. For Ron Rivera personally, this may be as “must-win” of a game as it gets. To borrow a Jay Gruden phrase, Chicago is a “code-red” game.

Personnel-wise, the coaching staff needs to start creating a roadmap for when to insert Sam Howell. The team underperforming isn’t Carson Wentz’s fault. For the most part, he has been fine. Not great, not bad, but really inconsistent.

Washington could win with him. They, unfortunately, don’t have the roster to elevate him, and the coaching is not helping. Benching Wentz would be more about not meeting the 70% snap threshold and losing the (likely high) second to Indy, while also seeing if Sam Howell has the potential to be the guy or not.

Playing Howell could also be beneficial for the current regime as well. He may be the lone life raft this staff has left if things keep going south. If he shows any signs of having the potential to be the guy then the current regime may be able to run it back with Howell next year.

If he isn’t very good — oh well — they probably weren’t going to win many games for the team anyways.

Switching to the fans’ perspective, with a loss against the Bears, it may be time to start looking at draft positioning.

For the long-term future of this franchise, the best-case scenario may be for this team to bottom out once again, resulting in the complete cleaning of house. Then, the team should first hire an innovative GM, and then allow him or her to find their head coach.

Then with hopefully a high enough pick to secure either CJ Stroud or Bryce Young, the entire franchise could be behind that signal caller. No need to worry about a lame-duck head coach and front office. The entire vision of the franchise would be built around the rookie quarterback, which could entice some more enticing coaching and GM candidates to consider the job.

Either that scenario happens or the team miraculously gets to double-digit wins and shows that the rebuild has some juice left. That is far less likely to happen than in the first scenario, though.

The absolute worst-case scenario is that this team gets feisty down the stretch, and lands in the 5-7 win range. Not good enough to sniff the playoffs, and not good enough to be in position for Stroud or Young.

Nevertheless, Chicago has become an absolute must-win for this team. A loss could put this entire season, regime, and rebuild up in flames before Halloween. And then it would officially be the beginning of the end of the 2022 season. A win may be frugal against the lackluster Bears but it would keep the season afloat, for now.

The Commanders are at a crossroads. They have a dilemma with a coach that is taking the franchise to nowheresville, who also has all the power. They still have a chance to right the ship. However, if it doesn’t get righted, the overhaul of the football operation will be needed once again.

And hopefully this time, ownership will put plans in place that can lead to long-term success.