3 keys to the Commanders upsetting the Eagles in Week 3

The Washington Commanders are looking to bounce back from their Week 2 loss, in their first of back-to-back matchups against division rivals, as they are set to face the Philadelphia Eagles at FedEx Field. The Eagles are favored by nearly a touchdown (-6.5) so Philly is the clear favorites.

After an impressive start, many are saying that the Eagles are one of the contenders in the NFL. Many think the Commanders are a volatile team that cannot be trusted on a week-to-week basis.

Naturally, most expect the Eagles to win, and some expect it to happen in convincing fashion. The Commanders would most likely double-digit road dogs. The oddsmakers, as well as the public expect the Eagles to run away with the NFC East. The Commanders have a chance to throw a wrench into those predictions on Sunday, though.

3 keys to a Commanders upset win over the Eagles in Week 3

3. Force Turnovers

The Commanders’ defense has been poor to start the year once again. The debate of whether it is a lack of talent, poor scheming, arrogant coaching, lack of communication, or anything else is a debate for a different. As the matter of fact is this defense isn’t very good for the Commanders right now. And I don’t expect that to change.

Kam Curl is expected to make his first start of the season so that should help. However, his addition may not do much to fix the schematic week-to-week problems this defense has. It’d be foolish to expect otherwise.

So instead of focusing on things the Commanders can do schematically different, or what different personnel will provide, the focus should be on forcing negative plays and turnovers. The Eagles will get their yards. Jalen Hurts will scamper for a few frustrating first downs.

The weapons will make plays and AJ Brown will probably continue to be the bell cow of the Eagles’ offense. Washington simply needs to start being more opportunistic. They have one turnover in two games. Benjamin St-Juste dropped an interception last week, and William Jackson III was in a position to make a play before slipping on Amon-Ra St. Brown’s first touchdown.

The Commanders and their coaching staff seem content with keeping everything underneath and allowing yards. Force the quarterback to be patient and pounce when he is not. At least that is what the ideal world is where the Commanders don’t have defensive miscommunications. If that is their plan, though, then they have to begin to execute on the latter part of that statement.

Whether that is a forced fumble, interception or a turnover on downs, the Commanders need to begin to giving their offense extra possessions.

2. Utilize the offensive playmakers

The Commanders came out of the gates embarrassingly slow against the Lions. While the defense gets the lion’s share of the blame for the loss against Detroit (rightfully so) this doesn’t excuse the Commanders’ offenses performance in the first half. Until their last possession of the first half, they had zero first downs. At halftime, they had one. Washington was dominated on all fronts.

With the talent level the Commanders have at the skill positions, and the pedigree John Matsko brings as an offensive line coach, combined with Wentz providing starting-caliber NFL QB play, those lulls have no excuse to continue. The Commanders need to dictate to the defense, instead of allowing the defense to dictate to them.

The Commanders allowed the Lions’ blitz-heavy tendencies to completely throw off the timing of the entire offense. The offensive line seemed confused about how to maintain pressure, Wentz held onto the ball too long, and the offense looked stale, lethargic, and stagnant.

Washington has the talent to be dynamic, explosive, and unpredictable on offense. Through two weeks, Washington leads the NFL in explosive pass plays (over 20 yards). Jahan Dotson, Terry McLaurin, and Curtis Samuel can win at all three levels of the field. Dotson has the highest DVOA of any reciever in the NFL through 2 weeks, meaning he does the most with his targets.

Add in Logan Thomas to the mix, with the running backs and it becomes  extremely difficult for any team to cover the Commanders’ weaponry. All Wentz has to do is accurately distribute the ball with his electric tools. So Washington needs to be ultra-aggressive on offense on Sunday.

As the underdogs, they need to come out attacking and playing with the “nothing to lose” mentality. On a talent-for-talent basis, the Commanders overall lose that battle to Philly. However,  the Commanders may slightly edge the Lions in overall talent too.

The Commanders’ hopeful renewed mentality to utilize the playmakers they have, as well as being ultra-aggressive can help the Commanders pull off the upset victory.

1. Avoid the slow start

It has been a trend that has held true for Ron Rivera and the Commanders: they are prone to sleepy starts. Whether that is going 2-7 in 2020, and 2-6 in 2021, or starting slow in games in general, the Commanders are prone to slow starts.

Scoring two touchdowns on both drives to start the season, and jumping out to a 14-3 lead like they did against the Jaguars is more of an anomaly.

Against a more talented, and well-functioning operation at the moment, a “fast start” may be a tough ask. However, avoid falling into an early 10-0 deficit, or getting boat-raced 22-0 in the first half, can be avoided.

The Eagles are far too talented for the Commanders to bank on having the ability to successfully complete a comeback following a nonchalant start. The Commanders will need to be ready to go out of the gate against the Eagles.

The Vikings put themselves in an early 24-7 deficit and could’ve made it a close game in the second half, but the Eagles’ defense tightened up in the red zone.

When the clock reaches zeroes in the second quarter, the game needs to be close. The Commanders’ coaching staff tends, at least on the outside, to be more reactive than proactive. They are a coaching staff that is excellent at pushing the right levers and buttons at halftime, to adjust to their opponent.

Relying on that against the Eagles may not be so kind, however.