I don’t like writing about bust candidates. I’m a fan of the Washington Commanders and a fan of pretty much all of the team’s players. So I hope I’m wrong about these guys.
On the other hand, I love writing about boom candidates. Unless I’m wrong. Then I feel like an idiot. (e.g. I advocated – way more strongly than I care to admit – that the Commanders sign Kenny Golladay last off-season.)
With that off my conscience, here are this season’s offensive and defensive boom and bust candidates.
The Commanders’ offensive boom and bust candidates
Boom – Antonio Gibson, RB
May seem strange to name last year’s starting running back – who almost certainly will see a downturn in production this season – as the offensive Boom candidate. But this is all about perception – about buying low and selling high.
Gibson’s stock is way down right now and he simply has too much talent to remain in the doghouse for long. His fumbling is a huge issue. The fact that rookie Brian Robinson Jr. is simply a better running back right now is a huge issue.
(Robinson, BTW, does something that all great runners do – when there is a hole, he gets more than five yards. When there is no hole, he manages to still get three.)
Gibson does not do that. Though he has improved as a runner, the college wide receiver doesn’t have Robinson’s vision or decisiveness. He may never get it.
But if he can eliminate the fumbles, there is absolutely an important place for him on an offense that still is struggling to find consistent playmakers. Gibson can run and he can catch. He can break big plays. I expect Robinson will be the lead back this year, and that JD McKissic will continue to be the pass catcher. But running backs get hurt all the time and Gibson will have his chances. It may initially come as a fill-in for Robinson – with Robinson playing two series and Gibson one. It may come as a kickoff returner – something the team is still looking for.
But wherever the opportunity comes, if Antonio Gibson can eliminate the fumbles, he should play an important role in the Washington Commanders offense in 2022.
Bust – Dyami Brown, WR
Fellow Riggo’s writer Jacob Troutman noted how poorly Brown played in the second pre-season game, and how his stock is falling. I just want to elaborate a little bit on that.
Brown was taken in the third round of the 2021 draft, just two years after Terry McLaurin was selected, also in the third round. He had produced a number of big plays in college. The team had recently signed free agent Curtis Samuel, and Brown was supposed to be part of a revitalized receiving corps.
After a subpar, injury-plagued rookie season, the Commanders extended McLaurin and used their 2022 first-round draft pick on Jahan Dotson. That means that from right around the time Washington acquired Brown, they have invested more than $100 million (Samuel and McLaurin) and a first-round draft pick (Dotson) IN OTHER RECEIVERS.
In a best-case scenario, Brown holds onto his No. 4 position on the depth chart, but even if he does, there may be games in the coming season when he is not active. That’s because the two receivers likely slotted after him are more valuable to the team on any given Sunday. Cam Sims is a special teams stud and Dax Milne may well be the team’s punt returner this season. Both can be productive receivers.
Brown’s play could trump these concerns, but the bottom line is that he just hasn’t produced anywhere near to the level that he needs to. With three similarly versatile receivers ahead of him, Brown figures to most comfortably fit as a Z receiver, or a downfield threat in 4-wide sets. But he has not shown the ability to create separation at the NFL level. If he can’t do that, none of the rest matters. Unfortunately for Brown, even if he does show some improvement, it may not be enough to make him more than an afterthought.
Boom – Daniel Wise, DT
When Washington signed Wise early in 2021, I had to do a bit of a crash course. I had not seen him play at Kansas. I sat down for a few hours and watched highlights of Wise and Gabe Wright – the other interior lineman they had recently picked up. Wright looked more the part. He was bigger and seemed better suited to play in the middle in the NFL. But there was something about Wise that stood out.
He never looked overpowering, but he kept finding ways to penetrate into the backfield. He often snaked through guards and centers to stop ball carriers behind the line. He did it often enough that you had to conclude he had a knack for this. His combination of quickness, burst, and IQ overcame what might be perceived as physical limitation. Maybe he wasn’t John Randle, but the fact that watching him made me at least think of the Hall of Famer – that said something.
Back then, I included Wise in my “Darkhorses to Make the Team” list. Now he has made it. This pre-season, he looks a little bit bigger to me. He is generating some interior pass rush, and he is still penetrating on running plays.
A lot of us were concerned when the Commanders lost both Tim Settle and Matt Ioannidis this off-season. But with rookie Phil Mathis looking like the real deal, and with Wise continuing to make plays, I am not the least bit worried about the interior of the defensive line.
Bust- Cole Holcomb, LB
This one kills me. Truth be told, I wrote an early draft of this last week, before the second pre-season game. The other three players remained the same. But last week, I had Holcomb’s fellow linebacker Jamin Davis in this spot.
I want to be clear – Holcomb is a good (maybe very good) player and I expect him to have a decent year. But this is the flipside of Antonio Gibson. I fear that so much is being asked of Holcomb at this point that there’s no way he can live up to expectations.
Simply put, Holcomb is the best linebacker on a team with astonishingly weak linebacker play. I continue to marvel at how three NFL linebackers – Ron Rivera, Jack Del Rio and Steve Russ – can preside over such an ineffective unit. The mismanagement of Davis in his rookie year was a big error – one that they are still trying to recover from. But the unwillingness to acquire more linebacking talent is simply bewildering.
Davis is taking baby steps toward becoming a good NFL linebacker. Khaleke Hudson, David Mayo, and newly-acquired Nathan Gerry are limited players. That leaves Holcomb as the do-everything savior.
He is not that.
Holcomb is not especially good in pass coverage, which was OK when he was playing strong-side in a three-backer set. But the Commanders no longer play that very often. Their standard defense now has Holcomb and Davis essentially splitting the field with an extra safety playing a pseudo-weakside role.
Holcomb is being asked to do more and more to make up for Davis’ learning curve and the absence of a genuine weakside backer. And at least early in preseason, the strain is showing. Holcomb is making tackles six yards downfield instead of plugging the hole at the line. He looks tentative to me. This may merely be growing pains, and he may get this licked in a couple of weeks. He has plenty of natural ability.
I hope I am wrong about this, but this is a coaching staff that seems to ask players to do things they are not particularly well-suited to doing – especially on defense. William Jackson was asked to play a lot of zone last season and his play suffered. This pre-season, Danny Johnson has been lining up as a boundary corner. That is not his strength. The Davis-in-the-middle fiasco is still fresh in everyone’s mind.
Holcomb had the best year of his short career in 2020, and it is no coincidence that the Washington Commanders had a legitimate weakside linebacker (Kevin Pierre-Louis) on the field that year. Holcomb is good – maybe very good. But if you ask him to pick up the slack of the otherwise ineffective linebacking play, there will be a point of diminishing returns, and his play will suffer.
Again – I hope I’m right about Gibson and Wise, and really hope I’m wrong about Brown and Holcomb. Who are you expecting big things from this season? And who scares you?