The NFL schedule is a well oiled machine. The NFC East has very similar schedules each year which make up their 17 games. Yesterday we got a chance to dive into the Washington Commanders’ 2022 schedule within the NFC East. That will make up six of their games in 2022.
Eight of the remaining 11 games will be against each team in the NFC North and AFC South. Every other team in the NFC East will play against those eight teams as well. The remaining three games are where the Commanders’ opponents differ from their NFC East counterparts. To learn more about how these games are determined check out this article.
Examining the Commanders out-of-division- 2022 schedule
Here is a look at every every NFL team’s win total for 2022 according to our friends over at WynnBET.
— Sammy Schulman (@sschulman28) June 29, 2022
This is much better predictor of strength of schedule than a teams record the previous year because it accounts for teams offseason moves.
The NFL does a great job of providing league parity with their schedule making, just ask the NFC East. There has not been a single repeat winner in the NFC East since the Eagles won it four straight years from 2001-2004. A big reason for this is the three distinct games on each teams schedule that vary based on your finish in the division, as discussed on the previous page.
The Commanders opponents average win total, outside of the division, is a fairly weak 7.85 projected wins. The Cowboys, coming off a division title, will face much tougher opponents outside of the division with their foes owning an average win total of 8.7 projected wins. This difference in strength of schedule comes from those three straggler games that differ for each NFC East team. The difference between the Cowboys having to play the Rams, the Bengals, and the Buccaneers, whereas the Commanders face the 49ers, the Browns, and the Falcons, could be critical in determining which team has a better record in 2022.
Last year the Commanders were coming off a division title in 2020 and therefore had to play the Bills and Packers, both of whom finished first in their respective divisions that same year. Meanwhile, the Eagles, who finished last in the NFC East in 2020, did not play the Packers or the Bills and instead faced the Lions and the Jets. The Eagles would go 2-0 on those two games, while Washington went 0-2 in theirs. This spelled the difference between the 7-10 record the Commanders ended the 2021 regular season with, and the 9-8 record Philadelphia achieved.
Breaking down the Commanders NFC North opponents
The Detroit Lions (Projected 6.5 Wins)
The Commanders will have their road opener in Week 2, when they travel to Detroit to take on the Lions. This is the kind of game the Commanders will need to find a way to win if they want to be successful in 2022. They have a relatively easy schedule yes, but they must take advantage of it.
The Chicago Bears (Projected 6.5 Wins)
The Commanders will travel to Soldier Field in Week 6 to face the bears on Thursday Night Football. The Bears are in the midst of a major rebuild, but winning a primetime game on the road is never easy. The Commanders will need to find a way to contain Justin Fields in the pocket if they are going to walk away with a win in a very hostile environment.
The Green Bay Packers (Projected 11.5 Wins)
The Aaron Rodgers saga concluded with him signing a huge four year contract, all but solidifying his career ending in a Packers uniform, but Davante Adams departure has NFL fans raising question marks about if the Packers offense will be as potent as it has been in recent years. Surprisingly enough, Aaron Rodgers is 0-3 in regular season games at FedEx Field. He may lean on a heavy running game and a star studded defense to reverse that trend in Week 7. One bright spot for the Commanders may be the added rest coming off the Week 6 Thursday Night Football matchup in Chicago. This “mini bye week” will go a long way for a Commanders team whose bye week is not until week 14.
The Minnesota Vikings (Projected 9 Wins)
In Week 8, Carson Wentz will return to Indy for the first time since the Colts traded him, and in Week 10 Wentz will return to Philly for the first time since the Eagles traded him. In between? A Week 9 matchup against the Vikings which will see Kirk Cousins come to town for the first time since he left the franchise after the 2017 season. The Commanders have gone through a lot of changes, and a lot of quarterbacks, since Cousins’ departure, but I would have to imagine they will have some sort of tribute to Cousins before the game. Once the game kicks off it is sure to be a tough on for the Commanders defense to contain Cousins and his excellent offensive weapons, including Justin Jefferson.
Breaking down the Commanders’ AFC South opponents
The Jacksonville Jaguars (Projected 6.5 Wins)
The Commanders will kick off their 2022 campaign at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars. It will be the third straight year the Commanders open their season at home. They will look to improve to 2-1 in those games after they beat Wentz and the Eagles in 2020 before losing out to the Chargers in 2021. The Jaguars will be the easiest of these three opponents, but should not be overlooked. They spent a lot of money this offseason trying to help second-year QB Trevor Lawrence be successful in 2022. Wentz will also face off against Doug Pederson for the first time since the Eagles shipped them both away after 2020, which makes for another intriguing storyline.
The Tennessee Titans (Projected 9.5 Wins)
The Titans will come to FedEx Field in Week 5. The Titans are coming off a season in which they earned the AFC’s No. 1 overall seed. However, they lost some major pieces this offseason, including AJ Brown and Julio Jones. Nonetheless, this will no doubt be a tough, yet winnable, home game for the Commanders that could go a long way towards them reaching their ceiling in 2022 should they win.
The Indianapolis Colts (Projected 10 Wins)
Wentz will lead the Commanders into a tough road game against his former team in Week 8. The Colts have a an excellent defense and a phenomenal running game. Matt Ryan, Wentz’s replacement, will look to finally push the Colts to a division title in 2022. While it is possible the Commanders could find a way to win this game, it will be quite the difficult feat.
The Houston Texans (Projected 4.5 Wins)
The Houston Texans could be in a position to tank for a high draft pick in a star-studded QB draft class in 2023. This offers an opportunity for the Commanders to win a road game in Week 11. The last time Washington faced the Texans was Week 11 of the 2018 season when Alex Smith suffered his horrific injury. The Commanders will hope to avoid major injury and walk away with a road win against a Texans team that offers very little potential in 2022.
Breaking down the Commanders “straggler games”
The Atlanta Falcons (Projected 4.5 Wins)
Right after playing their easiest road game (on paper) in Houston in Week 11, the Commanders return home in Week 12 for their easiest home game (on paper) against the Falcons. This stretch offers great potential for the Commanders to win a couple of games. The Falcons traded away longtime franchise QB Matt Ryan in the offseason. They will likely enter this game with either NFL journeyman Marcus Mariota or rookie Desmond Ridder at QB. Either way, Washington’s pass rush should have a field day against a very poor Falcons offensive line.
The San Francisco 49ers (Projected 10 wins)
In Week 16 the Commanders will travel to Santa Clara for what is probably the hardest game on their entire schedule. Wether it’s Trey Lance or Jimmy G at QB, former Washington OC Kyle Shanahan will surely have his team ready to play in a late-season game that could have playoff implications for both sides. Ron Rivera’s group will need to bring their A+ game and then some if they are to win this matchup.
The Cleveland Browns (N/A)
In the Commanders penultimate game of the season they will host the Cleveland Browns. There may not be a team with more question marks than the Browns in 2022. It is seeming increasingly likely that Deshaun Watson may be suspended for the entire season. With or without Watson, the Browns have a talented roster, including an excellent running game and fantastic defensive line. In what is sure to be a cold environment late in the year that will be a tough game to win for Washington in Week 17.