If you really think about it, the Washington Commanders are getting a cavalcade of reinforcements on offense next year.
Between the trade for Carson Wentz, Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas returning from injury, and draft picks Jahan Dotson, Brian Robinson Jr. and Cole Turner, the Commanders’ offense should be much improved in 2022.
Anything less would be a huge disappointment. When it comes to the club’s rookies, though, expectations should be tempered.
As we learned with Jamin Davis last season, not every rookie makes a seamless transition from college to the NFL. That got us thinking about Washington’s incoming draftees. What exactly should be expected of them in Year 1?
We’ll rip through each of them at some point, but we’ll fittingly start with Dotson, the team’s first-round draft choice.
3 realistic expectations for Commanders rookie Jahan Dotson
3. 65+ catches, 650 yards, 4+ Touchdowns
If we’re being honest, we have zero idea what to expect from Dotson statistically speaking. There’s just no way to know how much the Commanders will split the balance between passing and running the football.
Assuming the passing percentage increases with Carson Wentz replacing Taylor Heinicke, Dotson should aim for a floor like: 60 catches for 600 yards and four touchdowns. For context, here’s a look at how last year’s first- and early second-round receivers fared in their rookie seasons.
- Ja’Marr Chase (No. 5) – 81 catches, 1455 yards, 13 TDs
- Jaylen Waddle (No. 6) – 104 catches, 1015 yards, 6 TDs
- DeVonta Smith (No. 10) – 64 catches, 916 yards, 5 TDs
- Kadarius Toney (No. 20) – 39 catches, 420 yards, 0 TDs
- Rashod Bateman (No. 27) – 46 catches, 515 yards, 1 TD
- Elijah Moore (No. 34) – 43 catches, 538 yards, 5 TDs
It’s important to remember there was a steep drop-off after Smith in last year’s showcase. This year, there was a similar consensus fall-off after the top three of London, Wilson and Williams, with Dotson and Olave leading the second tier.
It’d be unfair to expect Dotson to post numbers akin to Chase and Waddle, but he could push for a Smith-like stat line if everything goes according to plan. If the former Nittany Lion can go 60-650-4, everything beyond that would be gravy.
2. Get Offensive Rookie of the Year votes
Wherever you get your betting odds, Dotson has been disrespected in the Offensive Rookie of the Year polls. Some sportsbooks have him slated behind Kenneth Walker, James Cook and Malik Willis, each of whom could start the year as backups.
We’re clearly bias towards Dotson, but that’s flat-out ridiculous. That’s not to say Dotson should be the betting favorite. Kenny Pickett, Drake London, Treylon Burks, Garrett Wilson and Christian Watson should all have higher odds. But putting him that low suggests he’s a long shot to even receive on vote.
That’s crazy talk, but we digress. At the end of the day, fans shouldn’t be surprised if Dotson generates some votes.
Unless Pickett wins the Steelers job, it’s a genuine crapshoot in terms of who might take the cake. If the likes of Skyy Moore, Breece Hall, Chris Olave and Jameson Williams all have a chance, then Dotson most definitely does.
If Dotson can squeak into the top four or even finish in the top five of voting, Commanders fans would be over the moon, but even some semblance of respect should be expected by season’s end. Again we’re talking about the No. 16 overall selection and the fifth wideout taken in a stacked class.
1. Leapfrog Curtis Samuel on Depth Chart
The Commanders are very pleased with Samuel’s physical well-being after his injury-plagued 2021. Every time Ron Rivera or Martin Mayhew have been approached about Samuel’s status, they’ve oozed confidence, hinting that the 25-year-old receiver should be all systems go this offseason.
The hope is Samuel will emerge as the No. 2 behind Terry McLaurin, but it’ll be interesting to see how the pecking order unfolds.
While a $34.5 million receiver should be able to handle secondary duties, the same can be said for the No. 16 overall pick in the draft, so Dotson certainly faces pressure to perform as a rookie. That’s not to say fans should expect the world, but supplanting Samuel as WR2 would qualify as a successful first year.
In that scenario, Washington will have justified taking Dotson that early. Even if Samuel has a bounce-back season for the ages, the Penn State grad just needs to solidify himself as a reliable outlet for Carson Wentz.
If that means his numbers don’t jump off the screen, then so be it. After all, stats don’t always paint a full picture. If his rookie year ends and we’re left convinced he’s a foundational piece of the offense, what more could you ask for?