Grading the Washington Commanders’ 2022 NFL Draft

The Washington Commanders selected eight players in the 2022 draft. On Thursday afternoon, they started out with six draft picks and through two trades ended up with two extra picks. Ron Rivera seems to be very pleased with how the draft went and expects multiple players in this class to make a day one impact.

We will dive deeper into this, as I go through the grades but Washington’s process was strikingly different than their 2021 approach. Instead of drafting high-potential players that may not be ready to contribute right away, they went for players ready to contribute immediately with lower ceilings.

Last year, they were operating as a team that was “a year or two away.” This year, they are operating as a team with confidence in its roster. Therefore, the process changed. Whether or not they are right, will be decided later.

Anyways, let’s dive into my grades for the Commanders 2022 NFL Draft.

The Trade Down From 11 

The evaluation on paper, is the Washington Commanders won this trade. After Drake London and Garrett Wilson were taken just before their selections, Washington’s remaining round one WRs on their board (Olave, Williams, and Dotson) were closely bunched together. Treylon Burks, according to Rivera and Mayhew, was a tier below those guys. Washington was able to trade down, still snag Dotson, and accumulate draft ammo in the middle of the draft, while the Saints acquired a receiver with a similar profile to Dotson. Maybe Olave or Williams turn into bonafide WR1’s, but as of now, this is a slam dunk trade for the Commanders.

Grade: A-

R1, P16 Jahan Dotson

As the days and hours have passed, this pick has continued to get a more favorable opinion from myself. Jahan Dotson has some of the best hands in the draft, near-elite long speed to win over the top, an advanced understanding of the route tree and he uses his agility and nimbleness to create yards after the catch. He also produced at Penn State, where he had poor QB play, while Chris Olave and Jameson Williams have the consensus top two QBs in the 2023 class.

His flaw is simply his size. Standing at 5’10”, 178 pounds he does not meet certain height and weight thresholds. This causes concerns for the ability to get off of press coverage in the NFL, despite being surprisingly good at it at Penn State. This lack of size may also lead to being stymied by larger corners in the NFL and Dotson only being able to produce solely the slot.

https://twitter.com/CommandersStats/status/1520069038172524551

His level of impact will largely come down to if he can win on the outside at the next level. And even if he is confined to the slot, that role will still be valuable. And he had only 225 snaps from the slot in his career at State College, while having over 1,000 on the outside.

Dotson projects to be at the very least a solid complementary piece in the NFL. His comparisons have ranged from Diontae Johnson to Tyler Lockett. Dotson should slot right in next to McLaurin and alleviate the pressure from the star wideout, as the only consistent separator on the roster.

With the hopeful health of Curtis Samuel, a step-up from Dyami Brown in year two and now the addition of Jahan Dotson, the Commanders all of a sudden has a solid stable in the WR room. Even Cam Sims has been productive for the Commanders.

One thing is for certain, Washington’s offense should be much more explosive in 2022.

Grade: B+

R2, P47 Phidadrian Mathis IDL, Alabama

The pick of Mathis does two things for Washington: gives an immediate replacement to Matt Ioannidis and a potential long-term replacement to Daron Payne. Ioannidis played about 50% of the snaps last year in the Nation’s Capital, so expect Mathis to have a prominent role in year one.

Mathis is strong at the point of attack. He has strong hands and above average play strength that makes him stout against the run. He understands and reads the play early, plays with gap integrity and uses his strong hands to work through the offensive linemen to the ball carrier. Mathis should contribute from day one, as a run defender.

However, Mathis certainly has his weaknesses. His advanced hand usage works to his advantage as a pass rusher. He has a set of pass-rush moves, including a swim move that he used to compile 9 sacks in his senior year. He struggles at times to create power and push the linemen back, and his lack of elite athleticism is noticable.

Mathis also has leadership traits, as he elected by his teammates as permanent captain in December.

Mathis could always improve but he is already 24, so his cieling may be capped. Martin Mayhew calls his ability to rush the passer “sneaky” which is an apt description. Mathis will contribute from day one, be a solid run defender and the hope is he can grow into a better pass rusher. I would have taken Travis Jones from UConn here if the pick was interior defensive linemen, or Jaquan Brisker the safety from Penn State. But Mathis will contribute early.

Grade: C+ 

R3, P98 Brian Robinson Jr RB, Alabama

With the third-round selection they acquired in the trade-down from 11, the Commanders addressed one of their underrated needs, running back. While Antonio Gibson’s talent is exciting, his lack of down-to-down consistency is concerning. And Gibson had 6 fumbles in 2021, another concerning trend.

Robinson will provide a smash-mouth mentality, to compliment Gibson and J.D. McKissic. He already is advanced in pass-protection and he has solid hands out of the backfield, so he has the ability to play on all three downs.

Robinson doesn’t get taken down on first contact. He posses above average contact balance and a “mean streak” that will allow Washington to set the tone with their running game. Robinson may not be the most explosive back in the draft, but his long speed is good enough that he still can create chunk plays.

The role of Antonio Gibson and JD McKissic won’t be diminished with the selection of Robinson. If anything, it will keep them more fresh as the three-headed attack of Gibson, McKissic and Robinson won’t force any of the backs to take on the majority of the load.

The former member of the Crimson Tide backfield, has a strong chance to contribute early. And he will most likely take the mantle as “RB1” when Gibson’s and McKissic’s contracts are up. However, again Washington could’ve probably gotten better value here. LB Leo Chenal and CB Zyon McCollum were on the board here. Both are high-upside players, with strong athletic profiles at positions of need.

Grade: B- 

Overall thoughts: As is clear, I like both players the Commanders selected on day 2 of the 2022 NFL Draft. I just thought they could have gotten better value out of the players they selected. But anyways value is a subjective term and I expect both to contribute early and often for Washington. I am just not sure that their upside warrants higher picks.

R4, P113 Percy Butler, S Louisiana

Once again, the Commanders selects a player that will contribute early. This time, it will most likely be on special teams. Butler was one of the special teams’ aces in the draft, as he played over 1,000 snaps at special teams in his career at Louisiana.

Playing all four special teams phases as a Rajun Cajun, with his favorite being as a gunner on the punt team, he projects to be a special teams ace at a minimum. And that matters, ask the Green Bay Packers how vital special teams can be.

With that said, his athletic profile (4.36 40, 8.14 RAS) gives him an upside to be more than that at the NFL. According to PFF, he allowed a 56.1 completion percentage and forced 4 incompletions in his senior year. Ron Rivera said he could compete at the Buffalo Nickel spot, so there is definitely a chance he contributes early as Washington’s 3rd safety.

Grade: B 

The Trade down from P120

Keeping it simple: this trade presents good value for Washington. As an extension of their original trade on night one, they were able to add two players that can be short and long-term contributors to the team.

Grade: A 

R5, P144 Sam Howell, QB North Carolina

This is pretty easily Washington’s best value pick of the draft. In the fifth round, they got a quarterback that could have easily gone on day two. Howell possesses an NFL arm, above average athleticism for a QB and above average touch on his deep ball.

He will need a year to understand the NFL verbiage and more advanced concepts. The North Carolina offense was very basic, that called RPOs nearly every play and made him read only one side of the field most of the time.

Sam Howell most likely won’t be active on gamedays in 2022. But he projects, at minimum, to be the successor to Taylor Heincike as the backup to Carson Wentz in 2023. And if things go awry with Carson Wentz and his year of seasoning is successful, he can be a backup plan. Sam Howell threading the needle to become the franchise’s longterm signal caller is unlikely but getting him in the fifth round is excellent value.

Grade: A 

R5, P149 TE Cole Turner, TE Nevada

With Logan Thomas expected to miss some time in 2022 recovering from his torn ACL, Washington gets a receiving threat to go with John Bates. Standing at 6’7″, with solid athleticism as a WR convert, Turner projects best as a contributor in a specialized role.

In year one, expect him to be used mostly in the redzone and on the plus side of the field. A jump ball specialist and a seam stretcher. He is the inverse of John Bates, an athletic player in the receiving game with some upside, that lacks physicality as a blocker.

With Logan Thomas coming off injury and entering his 30s, the ideal outcome is Turner becomes the eventual long-term successor to Thomas. A future compliment of John Bates and Cole Turner could be enticing. All of a sudden, Washington has a deep, versatile weapons group at wide receiver, running back and now tight end.

Grade: B+ 

R7, P230 Chris Paul G/T Tulsa

Playing right tackle at Tulsa opposite of first-round pick Tyler Smith, Paul projects to be a guard in the NFL. He has high athletic upside, with a 9.46 RAS score, including a 4.89 40-yard dash at 325 pounds. In the short-term Paul will compete for a roster spot this year in training camp.

In the long-term, with the work of one of the best offensive line coaches in the NFL, John Matsko, Paul could grow into a viable option at guard. Washington’s projected starter at right guard, Wes Schweitzer, is entering the last year of his contract.

The NFL Draft as a whole can be seen as multiple dart throws, but the seventh round certainly magnifies that. Selecting a guard with some upside to learn from John Matsko is an effective way to use that pick.

Grade: B 

R7, P240 Christian Holmes, CB Oklahoma State

The last pick of their draft is a microcosm of the Commanders draft as a whole. An experienced, older, largely athletically capped player. Holmes will be 25 entering his rookie year. He is a long corner, that excelled at being physical at the line.

His long speed is average but his 39″ vertical speaks to elite vertical explosiveness. The odds of Holmes making the roster are up in the air but if he does, he can be a solid backend of the roster contributor, as corner depth.

Grade: C+ 

Overall thoughts on Day 3: I thought this day was clearly Washington’s best. They picked up day one contributors and a few players with upside. And they had one of the best value picks with Sam Howell in round five.

Overall Thoughts

The Commanders’ intentions were fairly clear early on. They really like the state of their roster. And they think the biggest thing they needed was mature, day-one contributors. Washington selected seven seniors and one junior. And the junior, Sam Howell, was a day one starter as a freshman for the Tar Heels.

Each player the Commanders selected have multiple years of experience as starters at the college level. This should lend to a draft class that can contribute from day one. This class may not produce any elite players but it should be productive.

And with a roster that even I myself is bullish on, that should make Washington a very competitive team in 2022. The only downside is the Eagles seemed to make more bold moves for top-tier talent and could make the division much more competitive in 2022.

Overall though, the Commanders had a solid draft. Not exceptional, but certainly not bad either.

Overall Grade: B