Determining what Washington should do at QB this offseason

Hi. I’m Jon. Been away for a while. Judging by all the cards and letters, I know a lot of you missed me. TBH, I just couldn’t muster much of anything worthwhile to say about the final month of the 2021 season. And a little piece of me was hoping to hold out until 2/2/22 so I would never have to type Washington Football Team again.

But the off-season bug has hit me. When you’re a fan of a team like the one we have here in DC, you always get more excited about the off-season. ‘Nuff said about that.

I’m going to take a quick run through each position group on the soon-to-no-longer-be Washington Football Team over the next few weeks. You know – to see where we stand, and to imagine what we might do. 14-19 over the past two seasons feels about right for where this team is. But I do think there is reason for hope. I do think things are trending in the right direction. If they just get a few key decisions right.

And that’s where I come in, with lots of free, unsolicited advice. Today, we begin with the quarterback.

What should the Washington Football Team do at QB?

I’m sure you’ve all debated this one quite a bit already. With your family. With your friends. With your former friends who are just too stupid to recognize that you are right and they are wrong about this.

So I’ll move through the basics quickly. The Washington Football Team does not have a quarterback capable of leading them to the level where they consistently compete for championships. In fact, they only have one quarterback currently under contract, and even Taylor Heinicke’s biggest supporters no longer make bold claims about him.

Heinicke has earned the Washington backup job, which is more than I thought he could do. And, I’ll go a half step farther and admit that as a backup, he is a very good option. Well-prepared, energetic, capable of making big plays and winning ballgames. But his arm has always been the limiting factor, and over the course of an entire season, if a decent opposing defense can prepare for him, Heinicke simply cannot win meaningful games on a consistent basis. His overthrows and his red zone inefficiency are prime examples of a quarterback who cannot make NFL-caliber throws often enough. He has to loft the ball to get any distance, and that simply won’t fly for a starter on a good team.

So if it’s not Heinicke, who should it be?

I’ll admit that my thinking about the quarterback position has changed over the last few years. I used to treat quarterback like any other position. Of course I knew it was more important, but my process for decision-making was the same as for any position. And that was a simple cost-benefit evaluation. If you had to give up assets via trade, or to move up in the draft, you would evaluate the relative worth of those assets in comparison to how much of an improvement said QB was likely to offer. If your team was likely to improve, you made the deal.

But I no longer believe that marginal improvement at the quarterback position is a viable strategy in today’s NFL. Today, you either go big or go home.

So here’s what I think the Washington Football Team does now. If there is not an elite quarterback available, you go ahead and either draft a prospect (provided it costs you absolutely no draft capital or other players of value), or sign a young journeyman with a little bit of upside (provided he costs you below the average salary of an NFL starter.)

This is exactly what I proposed last year at this time. I didn’t believe the Washington Football Team would be in position to draft an elite prospect without giving up assets, so I thought signing a decent, cheap vet was the way to go. My suggestion was Tyrod Taylor. Sign him and stay on the lookout for a more elite option down the road. Tyrod Taylor is basically Taylor Heinicke with a better arm. He has been sadly limited by injury and freak accident of late, but had Tyrod Taylor been Washington’s starting quarterback in 2021, and had he stayed healthy (admittedly an iffy proposition) Washington would have been in the playoffs as a wildcard. I suspect the same thing would have happened had Ryan Fitzpatrick stayed healthy.

Drafting at 11, there will be multiple quarterbacks available. None will be seen as can’t-miss prospects. None of that matters. You draft whoever has the highest upside. If you think that is Malik Willis, you grab him. If you think it’s Carson Strong, you grab him  — even if you suspect he might be there in the second round. You take the guy with the highest-upside and then attempt to coach the hell out of him and surround him with decent weapons. For me, I’m taking one of those guys I just named, or perhaps Desmond Ridder.

I am not taking Corral, Pickett, or Howell at 11.

If I’m wrong with my choice – as does happen about half the time – then we regroup two years down the road and try again. If I’m wrong again, I’m probably out of a job.

The key for me is – don’t trade up. At least not for any of these guys.

As for free agents, there aren’t any worth major expenditures. There are guys who would be an improvement over Heinicke. Jameis Winston, Mitch Trubisky, and Jacoby Brissett would be better. If I could sign one to a below-average contract, I would jump on that. I do not want Taylor Heinicke to be my starting QB in 2022. But even more, I do want to tie up major assets in a modest upgrade. If Trubisky is available at under $4 million, I would gladly take him while still looking for a long-term starter.

None of this is all that earth-shattering. But here is where it gets interesting. The trade market. This is where you can get a more proven commodity. And this is where my thinking has changed.

The hot name right now is Derek Carr. I have no clue why Las Vegas would want to jettison him, but apparently it is under consideration. Mike Mayock’s firing and the uncertainty at head coach make the situation even murkier.

Doesn’t matter to me. I am not trading for Carr. He is an above-average starter who would constitute a significant upgrade. I still don’t want him. I do not believe that Derek Carr is in that top echelon of QBs. And these days, I do not sacrifice major assets for someone who is merely above-average.

Same applies to almost all the other names you may hear. I still believe Baker Mayfield has a good career ahead of him. But he’s not elite. I’m not rolling the dice on him. Jimmy G? He’s better than what we’ve got. But he’s not good enough to give up multiple assets.

In the past, I might have been a proponent of any of these guys because they would make the team better. But today, there are only three QBs who might be available who would not merely make the team better – they would make it a championship contender.

Of the three, I’m ruling out Aaron Rodgers because I don’t think he’s going anywhere. I think he likes to talk – to stir things up – to remind us he is there and needs some diva treatment. But I see no realistic way that he is not in Green Bay for several more years.

And though I normally do not take off-the-field questions of morality into account, I don’t think Washington can realistically acquire Deshaun Watson. The Washington Football Team, with its ongoing sexual harassment concerns, may be the team least-likely to look past his particular character issues. But even if that weren’t the case, you cannot trade for Deshaun Watson until you have more certainty about his playing status. You cannot give up major assets for a guy who may not be eligible to play.

That leaves Russell Wilson. He’s the guy. He checks all the boxes. He is elite. I don’t know if he would want to come here. I don’t know if Seattle would really trade him. My sense is both those things are possible.

And if they are, then you move heaven and earth to get him. Because here is the flip side to my new thinking. It’s true you should not give up assets for a non-elite QB. But if you have a shot at an elite one, then you give up whatever is necessary. You pay over market value for quality at the quarterback position. No where else. Just at QB.

Russell Wilson should be Plan A, B, and C for the Washington Football Team. If you can’t acquire him, go back to the beginning of this article and draft the highest upside guy you see. Sign the free agent if he is cheap. If not, begin 2022 with Heinicke and end it with Willis, Strong or Ridder.

That’s Plan D. But I’m rooting real hard for Russell. He’s only 5’11”, but after Rodgers, he’s the biggest dog out there. And at the QB position in today’s NFL, you go big, or you go home.