Washington Football Team running back Antonio Gibson has had a shaky 2021 campaign. From crucial fumbles to game-sealing touchdowns, it’s all been there for the former Memphis Tiger.
The talent is undeniable. Standing six feet tall and weighing around 230 pounds, Antonio Gibson has the size, the hands, the athleticism and the game-breaking ability to be your franchise running back. Despite the obvious tools, Gibson has yet to find a consistent output throughout this season, and with fumbles and poor pass-blocking now a concern, is it time for Washington to worry about their former third-round pick?
It’s shocking to be at this point considering where the Washington Football Team started with Gibson just one season ago. A fringe Pro-Bowl season that was as glamorous as “Gibby’s” iced out grill, you would have thought that version of Antonio Gibson was here to stay in D.C. no matter what came his way in the years to come.
But it hasn’t been easy, nor has it been something you expected. His rookie year started with a bang, as he was averaging close to five yards per clip on the ground, had 11 rushing scores and caught nearly 40 balls. It was without question, Antonio Gibson was Washington’s second-best offensive player in 2020.
In 2021, the numbers on face value look the same, but when you break down the context even further and you look at the young man on a snap by snap basis, you can see how they can be deceiving.
Through 13 games, Antonio Gibson has nearly 840 yards rushing, five rushing scores, 33 catches, and two receiving scores, in addition to a career-high in average yards per game. You’d imagine he’d be en route to a Pro-Bowl debut in 2021 and yet another fantastic season for the Burgundy and Gold.
If you’ve been watching, that has hardly been the case.
That isn’t to say Gibson has been bad, but there are some nagging issues with AG that were masked a bit coming off of his stellar rookie season. Still an unpolished true “running” back, in addition to his issues in pass protection, a brand new issue has arrived in the development of Antonio Gibson: that issue is, fumbles.
With that said, let’s take a deeper dive into the numbers, where Antonio stands nearly 85-percent done with this season, and whether or not Washington should begin to worry about their sophomore bell-cow running into some serious issues.
Antonio Gibson’s numbers
Through 13 games, Antonio Gibson is posting impressive raw statistics. On the verge of eclipsing 1,000 yards rushing, likely to hit 40 catches on the year and double-digit touchdowns, the second-year back hasn’t left planet Earth in terms of production.
So without question, this article nor should your thoughts be wondering on whether or not Washington should seek a trade to grab a solidified RB1 or draft a guy in the first round. That being said, Antonio Gibson leaves a lot out there in terms of rushing yards, catches, and pass protection.
In 2021, Antonio Gibson has faced eight or more defenders in the box on 19% of his carries. Considering the number of touches he’s received, that isn’t very often. For context, guys like Jonathan Taylor, Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffery, and Derrick Henry all face that many defenders in the box on well over 25% of their touches, up to 37% if you run CMC. In facing that many defenders, Gibson has totaled (-3) in terms of rushing yards over expectation, which places him in the mid-’20s in that category.
In addition,Washington’s offensive line has been one of the best run-blocking units in all of football in terms of win rate and PFF grades. Gibson’s inability to make the most out of his touches on the ground hasn’t been due to poor play up front nor has it been due to defenses severely trying to limit his output.
Outlets like Pro Football Focus and others have taken notice of his decline, as his grade from the company has dropped from 85.3 as a pure “runner” in 2020, to now 65.1 in 2021. His yards per carry mark is also down from nearly five yards per clip in 2020, to just 3.9 in 2021. Again, this isn’t due to his offensive line failing to win at the line of scrimmage, but many of times due to his fresh eyes for the position, a point that we will tackle in the next slide, in closing.
Lastly, Gibson has also had six fumbles in 2021, three of which have cost Washington in some of the most crucial aspects of a game. From his early 4th quarter fumble against the Chargers deep in their own territory, to his most recent fumble on a catch against Dallas, Gibson’s inability to protect the football has become a serious issue.
What’s the level of concern with Antonio Gibson?
We know where the numbers stand and we see where there must be improvement when it comes to Antonio Gibson’s game. Though you’d like more production from an athlete like him, it’s important to note how young he is for the position.
Antonio wasn’t a running back in college and wasn’t used primarily as a ball-carrier behind the line of scrimmage either. Gibson took on a new role, transformed his body into a 230-pound horse that looks to initiate contact and wear defenses down as a pure running back.
With that being said, it’s understandable why he isn’t taking the league by storm in his second season, as there’s a major learning curve to be had at the position, especially if you’re new to it like AG. He does some things well, he has some very good patience and burst, he wears defenses down and can be special in the open field. He’s exceptional around the goal-line, while also understanding angles well in the open field. Gibson has the IQ for the position, the athleticism, and the knack for finding the end-zone.
Right now, he’s like a Chef that has noodles, chicken breast, bread crumbs, pasta sauce, and cheese. He has the ability to make a fine-dining version of Chicken Parmesan on any given Sunday, but sometimes he can give you dry noodles and grilled chicken breast instead. There’s a process when it comes to development, and we’ve seen the highs of Antonio Gibson, something that you’d think will become more consistent as he enters his third year of playing the position full-time.
Right now, there are a lot of growing pains, but he’s still been able to produce at a high level. Eclipsing 1,000 yards rushing, catching 40 passes, and reaching double-digit scores is fantastic for a football team. But you’d like for him to be more efficient with his touches, you’d like him to improve as a pass-blocker, and more importantly, you NEED him to improve as it pertains to protecting the football.
It doesn’t matter how good Antonio Gibson is in terms of production, athleticism, and tools, if he’s unable to protect the football, there’s no point in committing to him long-term if you’re the Washington Football Team. Is there a chance that you might need to strip the foundation of his ball-carrying skills and re-work the process? Of course. That’s expected though, as he’s only been a full-time running back in his career once he came to the NFL.
The Washington Football Team shouldn’t worry about Antonio Gibson as we stand here today. In totality, he’s uber-talented and can do a lot of great things for you as an offense that wants to eat the time of possession battle week in and week out. But there are developments to be had, fine-tuning in his game to be emphasized as we conclude his sophomore season and enter his third year in the NFL for the Washington Football Team.