I wrote this prior to a recent press conference in which Martin Mayhew, Marty Hurney, and Ron Rivera all expressed a measured approach to acquiring a new quarterback. Were I a little less stubborn, I might reassess my tiers based on that statement.
But that’s not my style. I always wondered why anyone given the task of team-building in a highly competitive market, would ever be open about their strategy.
I’m not saying men like Mayhew, Hurney, and Rivera lie. That’s a long-term path toward failure. No one — be it league executives, your own players, or you fans — will trust you if you outright lie. But there is a difference between lying and obfuscating. Just ask coach Belichick.
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Reporters who cover coaches and executives for many years develop the ability to read between the lines when they are offered a tidbit of info. I don’t know that any of us here in DC can do that with the men now running the show for the Washington Football Team. So, to me, when Martin Mayhew says they want to be “smart and aggressive,” that sounds like the perfect blanket to cover virtually anything the team may end up doing.
And so, my tiers remain intact.
Last time, we looked at 25 quarterbacks from across the spectrum of college and the pros, and I gave you my rankings of who I would like to be calling signals for the Washington Football Team in 2021. Today we’re looking at how likely it is that each of those 25 will be the man.
Just as a recap, the most likely quarterback to open the season starting for the Washington Football Team is Kyle Allen. But it’s an open secret that Washington is interested in bringing in someone new.
I’m splitting these candidates into five tiers. I was going to come up with cool names for each tier, but then I realized – this is the Washington Football Team quarterback we’re talking about. No room for silly jokes here.
So, we’ll be going strictly by numbers.
0 percent chance
Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Trevor Lawrence (Clemson)
Aaron Rodgers is not leaving Green Bay. I know there has been speculation. But it ain’t happening.
And Jacksonville is not trading the No. 1 pick – which is the present-day synonym for Trevor Lawrence. Even if they were, Washington is not positioned to make such a deal.
You may ask why I bothered to include these two players in my original list when I think there is a 0 percent chance of them joining the Washington Football Team. Good question. When I have a good answer, I will be sure to let you know.
Less than 5 percent chance
Deshaun Watson (Texans), Dak Prescott (free agent), Zach Wilson (BYU), Matt Ryan (Falcons), Jameis Winston (free agent), Carson Wentz (Eagles), Kirk Cousins (Vikings), Jimmy Garappolo (49ers), Jacoby Brissett (free agent)
Watson is not a zero because I believe Washington will do everything it can to acquire him. I just don’t believe they can do enough. I don’t even believe the Texans will trade him, but if they do, they need to get a promising young QB in return. Washington has neither the player nor the draft capital to make such an offer.
Prescott is almost certainly not leaving Dallas. It is highly likely that Dallas will franchise him again if they are not able to work out a deal.
Wilson is in the same boat as Trevor Lawrence. Well, not the same boat. One boat behind Lawrence’s boat. That’s why he’s one tier ahead.
It looked for a while like the Falcons were preparing to move on from Matt Ryan. It no longer looks that way.
Winston is staying in New Orleans. He went there with this in mind. If Drew Brees doesn’t retire, then Jameis may be more in play. But I think Brees is retiring and Jameis is starting for Sean Payton in 2021.
Neither Wentz nor Cousins may be available. Depends on who you believe. And what day it is. But even were they available, the Washington fan base is so familiar with both that it would be a very hard sell. And by very hard, I mean next to impossible.
I just don’t think anybody is very high on Jimmy G right now. If he has a future outside of San Francisco, it is in New England.
And I don’t think Brissett fits very well with the way Washington wants to run their offense so I don’t imagine there will be much interest.
Less than 10 percent chance
Derek Carr (Raiders), Justin Fields (Ohio State), Sam Darnold (Jets), Tyrod Taylor (free agent), Shane Buechele (SMU), Jamie Newman (Georgia), Davis Mills (Stanford), Drew Lock (Broncos)
I don’t really think Jon Gruden will give up on Derek Carr. But I learned a long time ago not to try and predict anything Jon Gruden will do. If Carr can be had, I think Washington would be very interested.
The reason that Fields is in this tier and Zach Wilson is in the previous one is that Fields has slipped a bit on some boards. Some people have him ranked lower than Trey Lance at this point. I think he ultimately will edge back up into solid top-6 status, but he may prove to be a little easier to acquire than Wilson.
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I assume the Jets will keep Darnold. But they’re the Jets. Probably closer to 50/50 that he will be gone. And if he is, there will be several teams interested. I don’t know if Washington will be one of them. I just think they should be.
Taylor is this high because I think he’s the ideal bridge quarterback for this team. He’s this low because I appear to be the only one who believes that.
Buechele, Newman, and Mills are mid-to-late round draft options. Depending on what happens in free agency and what the team decides about Taylor Heinicke, one of these guys might make a lot of sense, should they develop a little bit of a crush on one.
I think Lock will be available and I think he will be cheap. I don’t like him much myself, but there are those around the league who still see a fair amount of talent for a team that might be a little bit desperate.
Less than 20 percent chance
Trey Lance (North Dakota State), Kyle Trask (University of Florida), Kellen Mond (Texas A&M), Marcus Mariota (Raiders)
I have a feeling that Washington wants Lance. So do a lot of other teams. His stock is rising and I suspect in order to get him, Washington would have to trade up. I don’t like that idea myself, but they haven’t asked me yet. He would certainly be exciting.
Trask is not exciting but his stock is falling and you might grab him on Day 2.
Mond is a project. If you take Mond, you need someone – whether it is Kyle Allen or some other low-priced veteran – to run the show for a while until you determine that Mond is ready. But you could address some other important needs early in the draft and get Mond a little later.
Mariota is probably available and would be a decent fit. I don’t imagine he would cost a lot to acquire and his salary, though not bargain basement, is certainly modest if he becomes your starting QB.
Greater than 20 percent chance
Mac Jones (University of Alabama), Teddy Bridgewater (Panthers)
I’m beginning to feel like I’m tilting at windmills with Jones. I don’t want him in the first round. I don’t think he has enough of a ceiling. But not only do an increasing number of analysts have him soaring up their boards, now, some are saying that Washington will trade up to get him. If it happens, I will be very happy to admit I was wrong should it come to that.
Washington Commanders
I don’t see Bridgewater as a good fit but the Marty Hurney hire makes it a far more likely move. Of course, some people thought the Martin Mayhew hire made Matthew Stafford more likely. I don’t really know how much any of that matters. Bridgewater would be OK. Maybe even slightly better than OK.
That is not exactly high praise for Bridgewater but sometimes that’s the best you can do. Failure to groom a top-flight quarterback during Daniel Snyder’s ownership means that the Washington Football Team will almost certainly have to overpay for a QB now.
The question is just how much do you have to overpay. And more importantly, if you are going to overpay, you have to be as sure as you can be that you are getting the right guy.
Jones and Bridgewater manifest the two ends of this spectrum. Jones is a roll of the dice for whom you will have to pay a fairly high price. Bridgewater is a modest choice that won’t cost as much. Personally, if I’m going in that direction, I’d prefer Tyrod Taylor. And if I’m rolling the dice, I’m shooting for Trey Lance.
Notable omissions
OK — there’s one potential elephant in the room here. When I put together my list of who I would want, I left out a few starters who might be available — players like Mitch Turbisky and Gardner Minshew — because 1) I don’t think Washington would be interested, and 2) I know I wouldn’t be interested.
There is, however, one other player who some pundits think is one of the front runners for this job in 2021. That would be free agent Cam Newton, who played most of his career under Ron Rivera.
I have no insight into how Rivera feels about bringing Newton to Washington. However, I know that I think it would be a disaster. Newton cannot throw the ball with any accuracy any more. He can run, though not nearly as well as he did in his prime.
Newton would be a big name who would produce at a lesser level than more than a dozen other options. The bottom of this list would constitute a step sideways for the Washington Football Team. I left Newton off because to me, he would be a step backward.